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University football is a sport with a small sample.
Almost all FBS teams play 12 regular season games, and for the best teams, most of these games are not competitive.
It is a sport that lends itself to exaggerated reactions based on unique results, especially during the first week.
For example, The Athletic put Auburn from No. 18 to No. 5 in his standings thanks to a 27-21 win over Oregon – a match that Auburn, a 3.5-point favorite, could easily have lost.
For Auburn and his supporters, defeating a Pac-12 competitor in a neutral match with a comeback by a real starting quarter, deserves to be celebrated.
Unfortunately for sports bettors, punters are not as easy to handle.
Tulane looked like a top half team from the American Athletics Conference in the first week, tearing down a Florida international team that beat 9-4 last season. Auburn has just won a moving victory in the national title on Saturday.
It is a classic hotspot that savvy bettors tend to exploit.
Players looking for a good price on Tulane are not lucky. The pricekeepers have put all this in the line of opening.
BetOnline opened in Auburn -20.5, and that number slipped to -18 on most of the betting market on Tuesday afternoon.
Ten years ago, Auburn would have been at least a 24-point favorite in this game, if not more. This is the latest example of the efficiency of the university football betting market with the influx of new funds in recent years.
I put Auburn from No. 15 to No. 14 in my standings after the win. I passed Tulane from No. 93 to No. 76 and I might not have moved it enough.
The green wave did much more than the Tigers to influence their power, even on a Friday night in New Orleans, where their game was probably the fifth most interesting thing that happened.
Tulane broke the closing gap at the Westgate SuperBook by 25 points on Week 1, a gap that only Maryland, Wisconsin, the state of Georgia and Penn State have overtaken.
The new offensive coordinator, Will Hall, well regarded in coaching circles if he has not yet been elected at the national level, has effectively offended against three options, dismissed it, maintained the pressing production, added tempo and an efficient passing game.
The AAFC's top line defense made 41 sacks last season and brought back almost everyone, including the menacing quarterback Patrick Johnson.
Quarterback Justin McMillon was transferred to the LSU and Jalen McClesky was a good starting catcher at Oklahoma State until he left the team early last season.
Auburn should not risk losing Saturday. (Tennessee was a bigger favorite against Georgia State than Auburn against Tulane, but the Vols are 2-15 in their last 17 games against the opponents of Power 5.)
From the point of view of the game, it is a scary game on which to bet. Auburn received 63% of the tickets distributed and 55% of the money wagered Tuesday afternoon, according to The Action Network.
The line narrowing by 2.5 points since opening the match on this data suggests that some well-respected players have supported Tulane.
Gus Malzahn also has a 9-20-1 record against home favorite since his first season at Auburn, including 2-8-2 in his last 12 games as a two-digit favorite.
Tulane also has an extra day to prepare.
My rough numbers indicate that Auburn should be a 23-point favorite, but that before the adjustments of the situation.
The total bets on this game is 50.5 with a lot to lose, so the odds based implicit score is something like Auburn 35, Tulane 17.
If you're a fan, take the liberty of making fun of yourself and proclaim that Auburn will defeat Tulane by more than four touchdowns. But if you are a player, the best value elsewhere. Do not risk your money convinced that oddsmakers dump Auburn at this location.
Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper specializing in college football and basketball. He is the founder of Sports Locksmith.
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