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Now that Beto's star O 'Rourke has faded during the 2020 Democratic nomination race, I would not bet for a return. In fact, I would be more surprised if the former Congressman won a single state than he abandoned the race before Iowa.
The problem for O & # 39; Rourke is not just that he questions the low single digit figure. After all, there are a number of single-digit candidates. If the leading runner, Joe Biden, falters at one point, it will be a brand new race and several other candidates will have an opportunity to break through. I do not think O 'Rourke will be one of them.
The difficulty for O & # 39; Rourke is that his fundamentals are so weak. He does not occupy any position, has lost his last race and has nothing unique to offer. Ideologically, Biden has monopolized the center-left of the main field, and the left flank is cluttered with candidates who are much more eager to claim these voters. There are also no early primary states that suit him perfectly.
O 'Rourke had no choice but to live a strange story of love with the media and to think that he was young and thrilling. But the media turned to him soon after the announcement of his candidacy, and his glow seems to be fading among the general public. This is a very big problem.
In many ways, O 'Rourke proves to be the kind of candidate that skeptics thought Barack Obama was going to be back in 2008. He's a rising young star that generates a lot of excitement and eventually becomes passenger. fashion. As I wrote last December, while the O & # 39; Rourke 2020 campaign was becoming more popular, comparisons between Obama were unjustified as his candidacy was even more successful, even in 2007.
When Obama entered the race in 2008, he generated a laudable coverage on the part of the media and the enthusiasm of a major part of the party that never faded. He had a marked contrast to draw not only as the future first African-American president, but also as the only major candidate to be opposed to the war in Iraq before its launch. In addition, Obama has never known such a ballot that O & # 39; Rourke is going through. Obama's polls have been steady throughout 2007, even in the many months he has followed Hillary Clinton, around the twenties nationwide. His support provided him with a solid base from which to break into Iowa in the fall of 2007, then take the lead in the national competition in February following his win in the primary.
Someone like O 'Rourke, who lacks achievements, must be able to maintain and reinforce the feeling of excitement and enthusiasm. It's one thing to stagnate in the polls for a while, then shine at the right time, as Obama did. It's another thing to have your time in the spotlight, to make sure that people lose interest, to pass to other candidates, and then try to regain the excitement. This is particularly difficult with over 20 other candidates vying for it.
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