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By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann
WASHINGTON – If you consider that Bernie Sanders is the leader – or one of the leaders – in the race for the Democratic presidency, is he not underperforming in the early states that he easily won or essentially tied into? 2016?
A survey released Thursday in Monmouth, Iowa revealed that Sanders was in second place with the support of 16% of people likely to attend the caucus. It's behind Joe Biden (27%), but ahead of Pete Buttigieg (9%), Elizabeth Warren (7%), Kamala Harris (7%) and Beto O'Rourke (6%).
Remember: in 2016, Sanders got 49.6% in Iowa, which is almost 49.9% for Hillary Clinton.
A new survey by the St. Anselm / New Hampshire Political Institute also revealed that Sanders held 16 percent of the vote in Granite State. It's behind Biden (23%), but ahead of Buttigieg (11%), Elizabeth Warren (9%), Harris (7%) and O'Rourke (6%).
However, in 2016, Sanders had won 60% in New Hampshire in his race against Clinton.
Yes, the 2020 field is much larger than it was four years ago. Yes, it is still very early, nearly 300 days before Iowa. And, yes, the Dem field is absolutely wide open.
But how do you know that the collective political press still regards Sanders more as an insurgent than a legitimate leader, despite his name, identity and money?
Answer: Buttigieg is in third place with almost 10% in both states, or Biden in the lead before the announcement of his candidacy for the presidency, as the number of Sanders pedestrians in the states where he has already won or who is tied.
Sanders is always treated more as an insurgent than a favorite, even if he is a favorite.
How the fundraising game in 2020 has changed
Prior to Monday's first-quarter fundraising deadline, the Democratic Party has experienced remarkable growth over the last 12 years.
Dems' bundle model (in which candidates fight for maximum donor checks) has been replaced by the ActBlue model (in which they are looking for low dollar donors on the Internet).
This transformation – at least for the first quarter – has resulted in a reduction in the overall money supply.
In the first quarter of 2007, the top six candidates for the demo (Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Richardson, and Dodd) raised $ 85 million, led by Obama and Clinton at about $ 25 million each.
Yet, in the first quarter of 2019, the top seven candidates for resignation (Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, Booker) raised $ 63 million.
But the transformation has also resulted in MUCH more small donors, who can again donate. And even. And even.
In 2007, Obama had 104,000 donors ($ 240 per donor!) And Clinton, 60,000 (or $ 400!).
Yet in this first quarterSanders had 525,000 donors (average $ 35), O'Rourke 163,000 ($ 58), Buttigieg 159,000 ($ 44), Harris 138,000 ($ 87) and Warren 135,000 ($ 44).
Democrats are worried that total money may seem to have diminished so far – especially when it comes to facing President Trump in 2020.
But the other way of looking at it is that Dem's candidates have armies of small donors and they can get those big checks together at a later date.
The state of the race Q1
And before Monday's deadline, here is the total number of fundraisers for the 2020 Dem field in the first quarter (from January 1st to March 31st):
Total raised
- Bernie Sanders: $ 18.2 million in 41 days
- Kamala Harris: $ 12 million in 70 days
- Beto O'Rourke: $ 9.4 million in 18 days
- Pete Buttigieg: $ 7 million in 68 days
- Elizabeth Warren: $ 6 million in 90 days
- Amy Klobuchar: $ 5.2 million in 50 days
- Cory Booker: over $ 5 million in 59 days
- Total: $ 62.8 million
Total surveyed (average per day)
- O'Rourke: $ 552K
- Sanders: $ 444K
- Harris: $ 171K
- Klobuchar: $ 104K
- Buttigieg: $ 103K
- Booker: $ 85K +
- Warren: $ 67,000
Vision 2020: another launch weekend
This weekend, three different Democratic candidates will hold kick-off rallies in their hometown.
On Saturday, Cory Booker has his in Newark, NY and on Sunday, Pete Buttigieg has his in South Bend, Indiana, and Eric Swalwell goes to California.
The question we have for Buttigieg: He gives good quotes and interviews. Can he give a good exchange too?
In campaign
Friday: Amy Klobuchar, Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper are all in Iowa … Strains of Elizabeth Warren in New Hampshire … Beto O'Rourke and Eric Swalwell are in South Carolina … And Bernie Sanders starts his momentum at Midwest in Wisconsin.
Saturday: Cory Booker has the hang of sending his hometown to Newark … Hickenlooper stays in Iowa … Warren stays in New Hampshire … Ditto O'Rourke in South Carolina … and Bernie Sanders goes to the # 39, Indiana and Michigan.
Sunday: Pete Buttigieg has the shot of sending his hometown to South Bend, in the Ind … Just like Swalwell in Dublin, California …. O'Rourke stays in South Carolina … The Inslee and John Delany campaign in New Hampshire … And Julian Castro attacks Iowa.
Tweet of the day
The lid: state of progress
Do not miss yesterday's module when we explored the new Dem polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Data Download: The number of days is … 59%.
Fifty-nine percent.
That's the proportion of Americans who say they do not trust the wisdom of the American public when it comes to making policy decisions, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
These are not exactly the latest news. American confidence in our collective political wisdom has generally diminished since at least the mid-1990s.
But here is the thing that caught our attention.
Before Trump's election, Republicans and Democrats shared an increasingly pessimistic view of the electorate.
But after Trump's victory, the percentage of Republicans who said they believed in the political abilities of the public went from 35% to 54%.
And now, at the mid-point after 2018, it's back to Earth – at 43% now.
ICYMI: Neglected stories of this week
Purge at DHS! Barr on Capitol Hill! Bernie Sanders presents his Medicare for All bill again (and is a millionaire)! These are the stories that dominated this week.
But do not miss these neglected stories via Kyle Stewart, of NBC, who would have received much more attention at other times:
- Trump's sister retires, eliminating complaints of judicial ethics
- The trump administrator wants to make asylum more difficult by entrusting border agents
- In the Russian effort to target the followers of Sanders – and help to elect Trump
And here are the clips of today not to be missed …
It seems that Herman Cain does not have enough support to be confirmed at a Fed headquarters.
Trump said that he considered his daughter Ivanka head of the World Bank "because she is very good at numbers".
Former Obama lawyer Gregory Craig has been indicted.
A new indictment alleges that Michael Avenatti has embezzled millions of people from the settlement of a paraplegic client.
Pete Buttigieg and Mike Pence? It's "complicated," writes AP.
Trump agenda: Steve Bannon against the pope
Steve Bannon goes to the Vatican.
Fed President Jerome Powell tries to keep his distance from the president.
Agenda: Chuck Schumer and the filibuster
Chuck Schumer does not promise to keep the buccaneer in place if Democrats get a majority in the Senate.
Critics are preparing to challenge in court a new bill on the abortion "heartbeat" of Ohio.
The health insurance industry is trying to convince the Democrats to give up health insurance for all.
2020: Joe Manchin supports Susan Collins
Stacey Abrams says that not to beat Trump – but rather to "win America" - is the key to the success of 2020.
Kamala Harris says that she owns a gun "for her personal safety".
The Wall Street Journal examines in detail how repairs are now on the table for 2020.
POLITICO explains how Elizabeth Warren was Republican.
Here is an overview of these new polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, via Ben Kamisar.
Joe Manchin approved the re-election of Susan Collins.
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