Do you have to worry about the next tropical disturbance? "Considerable uncertainty" all over Florida | FlaglerLive

That's why they call it the hurricane season. Many residents of Flagler and Florida have not yet finished wiping their brains and finding ways to help the people of the Bahamas recover. But the National Hurricane Center is monitoring what is called the "Invest 95L Tropical Disturbance", now in the southeast Bahamas, and gives 80% the chance that the system will turn into a tropical storm or depression in the next five days. percent chance he'll do it in the next 48 hours.

The cone of uncertainty on its track now encompasses almost all of Florida, except for the western parts of the Panhandle – just as Dorian pointed out at various times in his indecisive whirlwind earlier this month.

"There is now a lot of uncertainty about the future move of Invest 95L, and this disruption could directly threaten our region by the end of the weekend," said Ben Nelson this morning. National Meteorological Service in Jacksonville. He published his morning briefing at 6 o'clock in the morning. At the time, the system had a 70% chance of turning into a tropical storm. Two hours later, this chance was raised to 80%, with the 8-hour report from the National Hurricane Center.

"A tropical development is expected by Friday or the weekend as this disturbance moves slowly northwest to south Florida," reported Nelson. It predicts a high risk of deadly return currents starting Friday, as offshore winds blow and the surf increases, as well as the potential for "at least minor floods due to tides" on the Atlantic coast from Florida and the St. John's Basin this weekend. "High rainfall potential this weekend and early next week, with highly dependent amounts on the Invest 95L runway." (An "invest" is a weather system of particular interest to National Hurricane analysts. Center, not the forerunner of a name.The next tropical storm named Humberto or Imelda is this: Gabrielle has turned into a storm organized last week but veered north into the center of the town. Atlantic and dissipated The remains of Dorian are still active in northeastern Newfoundland Greenland, as a subtropical depression, as you can see on this NHC runway).

With regard to the outlook this weekend, most of Flagler County is between 3 and 4 inches for precipitation, with the northeast quadrant of the county between 4 and 6 inches, but all of this could change. as the storm moves. The system is currently moving between 5 and 10 mph, directly into areas already devastated by Dorian. "This disturbance will cause heavy rains and gusty winds over parts of the Bahamas until Friday, particularly over parts of northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian," reported the NHC.

This is not everything. The center also follows a "tropical wave" in the islands of Cabe Verde. "The conditions seem conducive to development and a tropical climate
the depression could form early next week as the system would move westward over the tropical Atlantic, "says the center, with training chances of 40% during the next five days.

See the latest station briefing from the Jacksonville National Weather Service on the storm below.