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At first glance, Dobnak’s new contract seems absurdly favorable to the team. The Twins are locking up a proven young pitcher, with a 3.12 ERA in 75 MLB innings, in a five-year deal guaranteeing him less money than either Michael Pineda or JA Happ will win this year alone.
With three years of club option at the back, the deal gives Minnesota great flexibility down the line. The ability to buy Dobnak’s future free agent seasons at rock-bottom prices will be helpful if he just stays the course as a fourth starter, and extremely valuable if he takes a step forward towards the top. status n ° 2/3. (Say, if that new very ballyhooed slider proves to be legitimate.)
The added value of the Dobnak contract is monumental. If the Twins activate all three options, they’ll control him for the next eight years for around $ 30 million, which is less than what the Astros pay Justin Verlander NOT to launch in 2021 ($ 33 million).
What if the incredible rise of Dobnak, from undrafted indy-ball pitcher and Uber driver to MLB certified starter, ends up being a flash in the pan? There is simply no risk.
If the twins need to cut the bait at any time, the $ 9 million they will pay Dobnak is insignificant to them and is life changing.
This last part explains why a deal like this can even come to fruition. It’s certainly not the first time we’ve seen teams use their influence over a young pitcher with limited service time to deliver that kind of affordable long-term stability. In fact, the Cleveland front office was pretty savvy in this regard while Derek Falvey was deputy managing director.
In 2015, Cleveland signed Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco – both far from free agency – to long stretches with several team options. A year earlier, Chris Archer had signed a five-year contract with Rocco Baldelli’s Rays, despite only making 27 career major league starts. Archer’s deal, like Kluber’s and Carrasco’s, included club options over two free agent years.
Compared to these contracts, Dobnak’s includes much less money, both in terms of guarantees and maximum payout. It also gives Minnesota a longer window of control than any of the other examples, with options extending through Dobnak’s 33-year-old season in 2028.
It makes sense. Dobnak didn’t have the good faith of the big league Kluber and Carrasco when they signed, or the luster of Archer’s top prospects when he did. The implications of Dobnak’s experience in this decision are obvious from the outside – given where he was a few years ago, it must be difficult to pass up $ 9 million in guaranteed cash, especially when the ” worst case “means you run really well and earn over $ 30 million while staying in one place for the next eight years.
The Twins, for their part, will gladly take stability in exchange for a modest financial commitment. Prior to expanding Dobnak, Minnesota had no starter (without perspectives and fringe rotation options like Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer) under control beyond 2023. The graph below shows how much its extension changes this. picture.
The Twins will have a lot of flexibility to build their rotation going forward. Dobnak is now firmly anchored as a solid building block to serve as a foundation.
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