Donald Trump (and other) facts verified at CPAC

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The rates

Talking about trade and tariffs, Trump pulled out one of his favorite lines and told the audience, "Billions of dollars are currently spent in our treasury."

Facts first: Technically, it's true. It's just that the billions of dollars do not come from countries and foreign companies, as Trump has suggested in the past. Rather, US businesses and consumers pay the bulk of the cost of these fares.

We checked a similar statement from Trump during his speech in El Paso last month. Here is what we found:

When Trump talks about tariffs, he often talks about the amount of money currently flowing into the US Treasury. It tends to give the impression that the money is paid by foreign companies. But this is not really what happens. Instead, most of these tariffs are paid by US companies that import these foreign products.

The real question is who bears the costs. American companies often pass on the problem to the consumer by raising prices, while a company sometimes reduces compensation or internal employment to offset higher costs. In some cases, the Chinese supplier could assume the burden of the tariff by reducing its prices in order to maintain its price advantage in the United States.

Trump is trying to realign the trade so that US products become more competitive with their cheaper Chinese alternatives. This will probably require a long-term adjustment of the US industrial base. In the short term, consumers and businesses in the United States will most likely end up bearing the cost of tariffs. The Tax Foundation said last year that it expects tariffs to lower gross domestic product and wages, as well as the loss of jobs in the United States. , hitting hardest middle and low income households.

Manufacturing

Trump claimed to have brought back "600,000 handsome jobs in the manufacturing sector that would never come back to our country".

Facts first: Although the pace of job creation in the manufacturing sector has increased since Trump took office in 2017, he overestimates this number by nearly 150,000. It's also hard to know what credit a chair deserves for decisions made by manufacturing companies to hire more workers.

According to current data, 454,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector have been added since the beginning of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
We also verified the idea that jobs in the manufacturing sector did not increase before Trump took office, as he had already suggested:

By the time former President Barack Obama stepped down, the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector was 190,000 lower than the one at the start of his term. But that does not tell the whole story. The United States was in deep recession when Obama entered the White House in January 2009 and the manufacturing sector was cutting tens of thousands of jobs a month. But losses stopped in early 2010. Over the next six years, manufacturing jobs have increased by more than 800,000.

Under Trump, the pace of growth is certainly faster. In its first two years in power, the economy has created more than 470,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector. (According to MarketWatch, employment growth in the manufacturing sector from August 2017 to August 2018 was "the best 12-month period in 23 years".)
The reason for this result is probably multiform. The drop in oil prices, the number of jobs in good health at the national level and deregulation are reasons often cited to explain this rise. However, lower vehicle sales and uncertainty surrounding trade could hurt these numbers.

In addition, even though the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector continues to increase, the total number of jobs remains below its pre-recession level.

Employment

Trump repeated the statement that "more people are working in the United States today than ever before in our country".

Facts first: This is true but requires context.

In a way, this equates to what Trump takes credit from a growing population. The most relevant statistic is the percentage of people who participate in the labor market. This number, which has increased recently, remains below pre-recession levels.

Here's what we found when Trump made the same claim during his State of the Union address:

According to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of people employed in the United States stands at 156,694,000. This corresponds to an employment-to-population ratio of 60.7%, according to data from the Federal Reserve, lower than the ratio of 64.7% from April 2000. This figure of 2000 is the highest ratio since 1948, when the Fed began to map the data.

Abortion

Capping the recent history of "Covington's Children" (where a video showing high school students approached by Native American activists has created a media storm), CPAC's chairman, Matt Schlapp, said Saturday that the governors of New York and Virginia supported abortion after birth.

"How many of you have followed this Covington story? Schlapp asked CPAC's hearing on Saturday. "Do you know why they came to the nation's capital?" They came to the nation's capital to protest what the governor of Virginia and the governor of New York want to see happen, namely a postnatal abortion. "

Facts first: Recent legislation introduced in Virginia and New York has sought to ease restrictions on some third trimester abortions. Much of the current controversy stems from a radio interview given by Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, in which he had made some strange statements about the abortion bill that created confusion around the bill. But Schlapp's description of the legislation in New York and Virginia is not accurate.

Trump made a similar claim regarding New York and Virginia during his State of the Union address. Here's what we found in our SOTU fact check:

New York

The Reproductive Health Act, promulgated by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in January, authorizes abortions after 24 weeks if a licensed health professional determines that "abortion is necessary to protect the life or health of the patient "or lack of fetal viability".

The new New York law expands access to abortions in the third quarter by easing restrictions on when the procedure is allowed. Previously, an abortion could only be performed after 24 weeks if the doctor deemed it necessary to preserve the life of the mother. Under the new law, the requirement has been expanded to include the general health of the mother.

Virginia

The Virginia Democratic delegate, Kathy Tran, recently sponsored legislation that would have eased some third-quarter abortion requirements in the state.
Under the current legislation, third trimester abortions can only be performed if three doctors agree that "pregnancy may result in death or serious harm to the woman. and irremediably to his mental or physical health ". The failed bill would have reduced the number of doctors needed to approve abortion and would have "substantially and irremediably" removed the language of justification for abortion.
At a committee hearing on the bill today, Tran was asked "at what time late in the third trimester could a doctor perform an abortion when he indicated that it would hurt the woman's mental health? " "In the third quarter," said Tran, adding that the proposed bill contained no limit on when an abortion could be performed before birth.

Northam was asked about Tran's comments in an interview with WTOP radio station on January 30th. Northam began to explain what he thought would happen in such a case. His comments sparked confusion and controversy among abortion opponents.

Northam said: "The child will be delivered to the baby.He will be kept at ease.The baby will be revived if that is what the mother and family wish, and a discussion will be held. will ensue between the doctor and the mother. "

Later, a spokesman for Northam said that his "comments were limited to the actions that doctors would take in case a woman in these circumstances [i.e. nonviable pregnancy and severe fetal abnormalities] went into work. "

This clarification, however, does not correspond to Northam's statement that "the baby would be delivered".

In numbers

According to the Guttmacher Institute – an organization focused on sexual and reproductive health, "just over 1% of abortions are performed at 21 weeks or more". Of the States reporting abortion procedures at the CDC, 638,166 abortions were performed in the United States in 2015.
The battle for abortion laws continues to rage in the capitals of the country's states. Nothing should come from the currently divided Congress. In February, the United States Supreme Court prevented the entry into force of the Louisiana Safe Abortion Protection Act. The law would have required a doctor to have admission privileges to a hospital located less than 30 km from the facility where abortion is practiced.

Opioids

During a discussion about the epidemic of opioids and illicit drugs, FoxNews collaborator Sara Carter told CPAC's audience that, at the height of the crisis, bodies in Ohio lacked room for bodies in morgues and had to place some in semi-trailers.

"I've never seen anything like it" at the epicenter of Ohio and other states facing this crisis, "Carter said," where morgues were overflowing with so many bodies that they had to rent Freezer trailers for children in freezer trailers outside the morgue. "

Facts first: That's true.

Initially, Carter's complaint was tainted with skepticism online, with some accusing him of abusing the opioid crisis.

As reported by CNN, the state of Ohio purchased several mobile morgues (trucks equipped with refrigerated trailers) in the mid-2000s. Originally, the trailers were supposed to be used for urgent / mass incidents, such as mass shooting, etc. Several times in 2015 and 2016, some Ohio morgues had to use trailers because of their overcrowded morgue, with officials citing overdose deaths as the main cause of overflow.
In 2017, the Ohio coroner in Montgomery County, Kent Harshbarger, told CNN that "overdoses are happening all the time and that we are constantly full day to day".

Tax cuts

While praising President Donald Trump during his remarks at CPAC, Vice President Mike Pence listed some of the accomplishments he thinks the administration has made in its first two years. Among them, of course, was the 2017 tax reform.

"With the support of this generation of conservatives, President Trump has signed the biggest tax reduction and tax reform in the history of the United States," said the vice president. "These are promises made and promises kept."

Facts first: The tax cut signed by Trump in December 2017 was certainly important, but the most important? No.

When it comes to measuring the extent of these tax reforms, many studies look at how federal tax revenues lost as a result of the reduction compare to a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) over time.

CNN's analysis of this claim itself revealed that Trump's tax reform represented about -1.1% of GDP. According to this measure, the 2017 tax reform falls short of at least six previous tax cuts under the presidents, including Obama, George W. Bush, John F. Kennedy and Reagan.
If one relies on the current dollar amount corrected for inflation that would cost the tax reform, it still emerges from the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, tax relief, the law of 2010 on the reauthorization of unemployment insurance and job creation, and the law of economic recovery of 1981 according to the Treasury data.

No matter how many times the administration declares this claim, it is still incorrect.

Dead cows

During the second day of CPAC, several speakers made jokes (some more serious than others) on the Green New Deal, suggesting that the Democrats seek to get rid of cows.

In reference to the Green New Deal resolution, the former deputy assistant to President Trump, Sebastian Gorka, said the Democrats "want to pick up your pickup truck, they want to rebuild your house, they want you to take your hamburgers. was what Stalin dreamed about. "Senator Ted Cruz also referred to the elimination of cows.

"I hope to see PETA support the Republican Party," he said, "now that the Democrats want to kill all the cows." Rep. Mark Meadows joined the joke, suggesting that the Chick-Fil-A stock would increase with Democrats who "are trying to get rid of all the cows," citing the Green New Deal.

Facts first: Getting rid of cows has been mentioned in a FAQ now removed on the Green Green New Deal, but is not in the actual resolution.

Rep. Alexandria The Ocasio-Cortez team has published a FAQ following the Green New Deal resolution. Addressing the question of why the resolution focused on "100% clean and renewable" energy as opposed to "100% renewable", the FAQ explained that "we are not sure we can completely get rid of cows and fats. fast planes. "
These 18 words sparked a wave of attacks by conservatives and Republicans, quickly becoming the center of their criticism of the Green New Deal. (The cover of conservative magazine National Review presents Ocasio-Cortez surrounded by cattle.)

Ocasio-Cortez and his team then gave up the FAQ, his chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, tweeting that a "first version of an FAQ that was clearly unfinished and that did not represent the resolution of GND had been published by mistake on the website. "

With respect to agriculture, the resolution does not mention cows but focuses on "working with farmers and ranchers in the United States to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions." as much as technically possible ".

This story breaks and is updated.

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