Unprecedented crises abroad, endless scandals, personal quarrels, the flattery of the tyrants of the president, a speech of impeachment and an inescapable presidency that burst into the life of every American in two and a half years will complicate Trump's story.
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has repeatedly said that Mr. Trump was unfit for the presidency in terms of temperament, intellect and personality. Today, Democrats believe they have the evidence to prove it.
But the president, who has repeatedly asserted and proved in 2016 that he was his best strategist, has faith in the old game book.
This probably means more polarizing anti-immigrant campaigns, a return to the cultural war that has fueled the wrath of its supporters in 2016 and more attempts to devalue the truths upon which voters rely to make an informed electoral choice.
Trump seized the press on Monday night in local media in Florida, claiming that "thousands" of supporters were already lining up for the next night's rally in Orlando.
The president will accelerate the pace of a campaign that he's never really buckled after his victory at the White House, facing ominous omens that suggest he might have trouble in recreate the magic.
There are signs that Trump may be rejecting the magnitude of his task, having fired pollsters who told him bad news, which was leaked, and he told his supporters not to believe those who say that he does not win.
The Democrats are trying to destroy the Trump coalition at its foundations by challenging his claim to be a champion of "forgotten men and women" that he blasted in his inaugural speech. In a six-figure digital advertising anticipating his Florida rally, Democratic Super PAC Priorities USA blamed Trump for knocking out Obamacare and enriching the rich with his tax cut.
"Everyone cares about Trump, it's the people at the top," says an ad.
Yet nobody writes Trump, partly because of the strength of his economy and his historically low unemployment rate, making it the political gold for a historic operator. He presented his remarks to many Conservatives, bringing together two new Supreme Court justices and many lower court judges, allied to GOP Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and he is the only one to be elected. will wait until they honor their commitment to the ballot box.
The 2020 race will test if Trump is really an aberration. It will seek to prove that its unconventional character, unscrupulous approach, and magnetism towards its supporters mean that historical trends and raw data from polls can be ignored a second time.
Certainly, analysts who had almost forced him to defeat in 2016 will be more wary of their polls this year because of the way Trump broke the political logic last time.
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In an e-mail on the eve of the launch, the president tried to revive the spirit of the outsiders that had led to a larger than expected participation for 2016.
"When I launched my 2016 presidential campaign 4 years ago today, the FAKE NEWS media told us that we had no chance of winning, but that I believed in our potential. huge thanks to YOU, "wrote Trump, still an anti-establishment outsider.
"You showed them what the greatness of America looks like, and we are just starting," he said.
Trump won the presidency by breaking taboos and exploiting anti-elite feelings of anger that most real politicians have not even heard. He gave the floor to Americans left out in an unequal economy and bent reality to sketch his own version of the truth.
His campaign of uncontrolled and unbridled flow of consciousness was a revelation. And he aroused the resentment and personal liberation of his supporters who took them to polling stations in November 2020.
Within his fiery crowds, there was a sense of almost anarchic amusement that often appeared in television footage as being that of a demagogic candidate reprimanding his enemies. One of the first key tests of his campaign will be to determine if the president can still make this connection invaluable.
Trump destroyed his Republican opponents and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by doing all he needed to win. He announced that he would do the same again, having suggested last week that he might be able to look at any opponent offered by a foreign power before informing him about it. FBI.
He will have a much more professional and targeted personal campaign device to help him after being based primarily on the Republican National Committee in 2016 – and has already raised nearly $ 100 million to strengthen his candidature for a second term.
The president believes that he will be able to dictate the shape of the campaign pretty much as he did in 2016 – with tweets flowing that unbalance his opponents.
"I took out one this morning and as soon as I pressed the button, they said:" We have breaking news. "Every network, every station "We have the latest news." They read my tweet, "Trump told ABC News.
Trump, however, will almost certainly not benefit from the same unfiltered coverage that he received during his main campaign in 2016 and who has become wiser.
Trump's narrow trail
But it is already clear that although he has a credible path to return to the White House, Trump has no room for error.
It was one thing to impose as a stranger without expectations, that even his campaign did not expect to win. It's another thing to make history a second time, with everything to lose and the ignominy of a single-mandate president.
Some 17 months before polling day, it is already clear that Trump has only one way to win – by rallying his blue-collar coalition in the Midwest to reinforce his dominance in the South , while capturing a likely victory in Florida, which has 29 votes. and where he stunned Clinton in 2016.
He has never made any effort to broaden his support, as most presidents do when they consider a second term knowing that they may have trouble rekindling the fire of their first runs.
According to a CNN tally, the president kept his base close and fueled with 59 amazing twists since the beginning of 2017, breaking free and offering programming for the conservative media machine.
The strategy was a success as Trump routinely polls Republican voters in the 1980s and re-builds the party around his populist, nationalist image.
But almost all of its rallies unfolded in the solid Trump country, reflecting the basic strategy or nothing that relies on the same enthusiasm for the GOP as in 2016 and a depressed Democratic participation that seems less likely considering the The anxiety of the liberals with regard to the president.
Early poll numbers are unpredictable, but Trump strives to reject the leaked internal polls that seem to challenge him in key states and raise questions about his limited electoral network.
Most national comparative polls also show that Trump loses to most Democrat candidates – with Joe Biden particularly strong – one of the reasons why sources told CNN that Trump exasperated his staff with concerns about the former Vice Chair.
Monday's Democratic leader sought to further fuel the president's insecurities before his big announcement in Florida.
"I plan to campaign in the South, I plan and if I'm your candidate, I plan to win Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, believe it or not," said Biden. "And I think we can win Texas and Florida if we look at poll data now."