Don’t write these 4 QBs

Risk management is fundamental to any fantasy football strategy. Let’s be honest: no one wants to endure heartbreak when a choice with high expectations doesn’t work. To help great players avoid disappointments this draft season, we’re revealing the players to avoid from our analysts, position by position. Today, the quarters.

Dalton Del Don: Aaron Rodgers comes out of an MVP campaign but just isn’t performing enough to match other elite fantastic QBs. However, it is written as such. Rodgers’ whimsical value last year was tied to a TD percentage (in part thanks to a favorable pass defense schedule who plans to be among the hardest this season) which has always been incredibly difficult to repeat. In 2019, Rodgers was QB14 in fantastic points per game and more than a handful of legitimate QBs have entered the league since. Rodgers is a Inner Circle Hall of Fame member, but he’s drafted too high based on TD stats from last year that are likely to decline.

Matt Harmon: I’m going to choose to be a little bold with this one and throw out Jalen Hurts. This is potentially an unfortunate endeavor as we know Hurts can moonwalk to a QB1 finish if he only plays a full season, simply because of his rushed chops.

That said, unlike similar bets from previous years (think Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, etc.), this cap is fully built into his ADP. Hurts drops anywhere from QB10-12 in ADP depending on your source and will usually require a round single digit selection. It’s steep. Even though Hurts’ precipitation-based ground makes him incredibly likely to score well in this QB12ish rankings, it’s more about the opportunity cost of taking Hurts on round 8 on some of the still-quality receivers and top darts. yield left on the board.

The story continues

There are legitimate ways for Hurts to fail. His rookie season showed he still needs to grow as a passer, as his efficiency stats such as intercept rate (2.7%), adjusted yards per attempt (6.8) and percentage of completion compared to expectations (-3.4%) were all below adequate. Much of the Eagles offense is still a question-mark unit that relies on a host of young players taking it one step further. An overall ineffective attack could also cause it to fail.

I don’t mind taking Hurts if he falls into the Round 10 range, but if he hits his current ADP I would just rather wait a little longer for Trey Lance or Justin Fields, both of which present prospects for similar rise. We know you can build a streaming quarterback squad in case you have to wait a few weeks for those rookies to play.

Scott Pianowski: About a month ago, I was proactive on Jalen Hurts. But I’m starting to worry that he’s poorly developed as a passer, and I don’t trust the Philadelphia coaching infrastructure. There are also all kinds of questions about this group of receptors. It is unlikely that I will select Hurts from now on at the start of the season. Don’t pass yourself off as a quarterback, there should already be a lot of them that you like.

Not much in favor of Daniel Jones

Liz Loza: The Giants’ investment in Daniel Jones is obvious. But even the addition of Kenny Golladay (who spent most of the month on the sidelines with a hamstring problem) and the return of Saquon Barkley (who is still coming back from the season-ending knee injury in the ‘last year) won’t be enough to vault Jones into the top 20 fantasy producers for this position. Between a low-ranked o-line, an unimaginative call for play, and solid defense, Jones’ ecosystem doesn’t allow for high-end pass numbers. Vegas seems to agree as the Giants’ odds of winning NFC East are currently +450, just 50 points ahead of the Eagles.

Trevor Lawrence might not be fantasy’s chosen one

Andy Behrens: I kinda admire the boldness of the Urban Meyer NFL experience in Jacksonville, and the team put together a bunch of skilled players who could be pretty fun (if not just a big, confusing mess). In the long run, it’s easy to love Trevor Lawrence for fancy purposes – he has the requisite arm strength, size, collegial history, and just enough rushing ability. But his team’s redesigned offense has been difficult to watch in the preseason. It could take a few weeks (or months) before the Urb / Lawrence collaboration is fully operational.

If you’re interested in catching a late flight on a rookie QB, it has to be Trey Lance or Justin Fields. These two each have an undeniable level of rushing talent that should ensure fantasy relevance, and both also have elite receiving weapons to draw upon.

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