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Since Friday, heavy storms have devastated parts of the plains, including about 50 reported tornadoes, and more difficult weather conditions are coming. An epidemic of severe and dangerous weather is possible on Monday, targeting parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Massive hail, destructive winds and potentially strong tornadoes may be coming.
The National Meteorological Service's (SSC) Storm Prediction Center has already raised the threat of severe weather to its second highest level (4 out of 5) Monday. It is an infallible sign for a potentially important event. Since 2003, only 18 events have prompted SPC to raise a red flag so early.
The potential epidemic comes from the overlap of an abundance of instability and strong wind shear loads – a change in wind speed or wind direction with altitude. Strong jet stream winds of more than 120 km / h, at only 17,000 feet above the ground, will only make the storms stronger, making them spin like a top.
In events with so many storms, so many storms can develop, merge, and face each other, limiting the risk of a tornado. This does not seem to be the case on Monday. The National Meteorological Service provides "very favorable wind profiles for discrete supercells capable of all serious hazards, including major tornadoes".
Most of the day will be storm-free, with the threat reaching its peak late in the afternoon when the sun burns to the ground. At supper time, storms will set off along a dry line in the Texas and Oklahoma catch arms. It is there that the dry air of the desert meets the stifling and tormented winds coming from the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting clashes can produce violent storms that exceed 10 km high. It's beautiful, spectacular and deadly.
Oklahoma City is on par, as is Moore – the southern suburbs that have seen its neighborhoods ravaged by EF5 tornadoes from 1999 to 2013. Monday marks exactly six years since the infamous tornado of May 24, 2013 in which 24 people died. Coincidentally, the same place could be affected by dangerous weather conditions.
The first storms can make waves late afternoon in the western regions, make a trek to the east and approach the Interstate 35 towards or just before sunset. These are supercells that could contain hail as big as softball, winds up to 80 km / h and high-level tornadoes. A second line could develop Monday night into the night, favored to be a line of storms with damaging winds as the main threat.
More than 50 tornadoes reported since Friday in the plains
In the same areas that were facing extreme weather conditions on Monday, many storms occurred on Saturday morning. Thirteen tornadoes have been reported from central Texas to Oklahoma, including devastating tornadoes in Abilene and San Angelo, Texas.
With the atmosphere becoming unsettled on Saturday afternoon, it is likely that other storms will occur in southwestern Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma. This is where a couple of supercells with a big hail and a low tornado risk is possible.
On Friday, several photogenic tornadoes fell in western Nebraska and Kansas, causing more than 150 reports of extreme weather, including 39 tornadoes. The hardest hit corridor was a corridor from McCook to Culbertson, Neb., Where a single storm of supercells caused up to half a dozen tornadoes, while other storms eventually join him. Further south, a long track supercell produced what was probably a major tornado east of Dodge City, Kansas, after dark.
Even after the end of Monday's storms, the plains are far from over. Another episode of severe weather is possible from Wednesday to Thursday.
You do not take risks in May at Tornado Alley.
Below, see some tornado images on the Plains on Friday.
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