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TOKYO SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES 2020
100 butterfly men
When the Olympic legend Michael phelps retired after the 2016 Olympics, many wondered, “who will take over the American butterfly heritage?” At the time, there were many suitors, but no one seemed to be the apparent heir to Phelps’ throne.
single Villasenor (photo: Jack Spitser)
Then, at the 2017 NCAA Championships, single Villasenor lost a time of 43.58 in the 100 butterfly yard to break the US Open record. Traditionally a sprint freestyler, Dressel’s performance was dazzling for many swimming fans, who began to see him as America’s next butterfly superstar. However, many still had doubts as to how he would translate this into a long-haul pool. Dressel proved them wrong once again, dropping a time of 50.87 at the 2017 World Championships trials, the fastest time in the world for this season. In his explosive performance at the 2017 World Championships, Dressel obliterated the field in the 100 butterfly, nearly breaking Phelps’ world record of 49.86 to claim his first world championship title in that event.
After an injury hampered his performance in 2018, Dressel entered the 2019 World Championships with a heavy weight on his shoulders. He did not disappoint in the competition as he clocked a time of 49.50 in the 100 butterfly semifinal to take more than 3 tenths of a second off Phelps’ world record, later winning gold in new.
Heading into the Olympics, Dressel is clearly the favorite for the gold medal in this event. No other active swimmer has been within 0.6 of Dressel’s world record, and he currently holds 7 of the 10 fastest strokes of all time. At the 2021 US Olympic Trials, Dressel clocked a time of 49.76 in the 100 butterfly for the 3rd fastest performance of all time. Considering Dressel probably wasn’t fully rested for testing, his Tokyo results could be on another level.
As of 2016, only 15 swimmers have been 51.00 or faster in the 100 butterfly, including the aforementioned Dressel, with several not even competing in the event in Tokyo.
Kristof Milak
58th Settecolli Trophy, Rome, Italy
Courtesy of Mine Kasapoglu
Hungarian Kristof Milak is the only swimmer to come within half a second of Dressel during this time. At the 2021 European Championships, Milak swam to a final time of 50.18 in the event, becoming one of the fastest in history. Current world record holder in the 200m butterfly, Milak has great endurance, but lacks the opening speed to follow Dressel on the opening 50. However, if he is with Dressel at the end of the race, Milak will certainly end up on the podium.
In 2017, Mehdy Metella seemed to be Dressel’s biggest threat in this event. However, he suffered several shoulder injuries that hampered his performances in 2018 and 2019. Despite this, Metella recently proved he was still not in contention for an Olympic medal, swimming a time of 50 , 87 at the French Championships last month. For Metella, his time ranks him as the 5th fastest athlete since Rio, and places him 5th fastest swimmer in the world this year. Assuming he’s still recovering from his injuries, Metella may have more to show when he arrives in Tokyo.
Australian Matthew Temple is also ranked among the top 5 players in Rio, placing 3rd with his time of 50.45 in the Australian selection competition. The Temple time of this meet shattered Oceania’s record in the event, making him the fastest Aussie to swim the race. At just 22 years old, Temple is in his prime, which means he could still improve his time during the Olympics. If he’s able to do so, Temple should embark on the medal race.
Another “young weapon” to watch out for is Josif Miladinov, 18, who won a silver medal in this event at the 2021 European Championships. At those championships, Miladinov clocked 50.93, placing himself only behind Milak. This currently ranks him 6th fastest player since the Rio Olympics, making him a strong contender for the final in Tokyo.
The Japanese nation has two strong participants in this event via Takeshi Kawamoto and Naoki Mizunuma, both of whom will have a big advantage competing in their own countries. The two swimmers, who have the best times of 51.00 and 51.03, respectively, will not be affected by travel requirements or time zone differences, things other athletes will have to adapt to. Even though there will be no spectators at the Games to cheer them on, both swimmers should have a great opportunity to advance to the final in such a familiar atmosphere.
Jacques Guy (photo: Mike Lewis)
World champion on several occasions Jacques Guy is another contender for this event, which could have a huge impact if he is “in good shape”. Guy, the 2017 World Championships bronze medalist, has not swam as well in this event in recent seasons, having won no medals in any individual event at the 2019 World Championships. However, Guy has already been as fast as 50.96 this season and holds the 6th fastest time in the world since Rio. If he hits his cone correctly, there’s no doubt Guy can run into the wall for a podium spot.
Two former Olympic champions could also find themselves in the final. In 2012, Chad le Clos shocked Phelps as he passed him for Olympic gold in the 200 butterfly. Although he couldn’t repeat the feat in Rio, Le Clos climbed to the podium in the 100m butterfly, tied for a silver medal. Le Clos’s best time in this Olympic quad is 50.65 from 2018, but it might take a lot more than that to repeat his silver medal in Tokyo.
Joe Schooling (photo: Jack Spitser)
Just like Le Clos did in 2012, Joseph Education beat Phelps for Olympic gold in 2016, winning the 100m butterfly with a new Olympic record of 50.39. However, Schooling has not approached that moment since 2016 and has by no means made an international podium since then. Having been relatively calm over the past year, it’s hard to predict where Schooling will be in Tokyo and whether it will be able to shock the pitch again.
There are several other swimmers who have had between 51.0 and 51.5 over the past year, all of whom could claim a berth in the final in Tokyo. These included Andrei Minakov, Tom shields, Jakub Majerski, and Federico Burdisso. Minakov, in particular, is a huge medal threat in this race. Reigning World Championship silver medalist Minakov holds a personal best of 50.83, putting him right in the thick of the action in Tokyo. Also, at only 20 years old, Minakov probably has room to improve at this time.
SwimSwam’s choices:
Darkhorse’s Pick: Noe Ponti (SUI) – NC State Engagement Noe Ponti has been in tears recently, posting several 51-second performances at the 100 butterfly in recent months. Before the pandemic, Ponti’s best time rested at 52.70 from 2019. Since the end of 2020, he has managed to bring it down to 51.15, placing him just outside the top 10 performances in the world this season. Ponti just turned 20, which means he might be able to waste a lot more time off his personal best in Tokyo.
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