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If the likely election to recall beleaguered California Governor Gavin Newsom takes place today, a new poll suggests the first-term Democrat would survive.
Fifty-six percent of Golden State adults polled in a California Public Policy Institute poll released Tuesday night said they would vote to keep Newsom in power, and four in ten said they would vote to oust the governor from office. functions.
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Nearly eight in ten Democrats say they support keeping Newsom as governor, with an equal number of Republicans supporting his ouster. Independent voters, by a margin of 53% to 42%, say they would vote to keep the governor in power rather than recall him.
“Democrats currently have a big advantage over Republicans in voter registration, which is why recall support is well below the majority needed to remove the governor,” said PPI CEO. , Mark Baldassare.
Baldassare noted that “the part that would now vote to impeach the governor is similar to the 38% who did not vote for Newsom in the fall of 2018,” when Newsom easily won the race to successfully retire to two terms. , Democratic Governor Jerry Brown. in the deep blue state.
The recall push was launched last June on accusations the governor mismanaged the state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. The effort was fueled by the state’s COVID restrictions on businesses and places of worship, school closures, and even opposition to high state taxes. But the effort increased in the fall after Newsom’s dinner at an ultra-exclusive restaurant, which – at best – bypassed rules imposed by the governor to prevent the spread of the coronavirus
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Republicans see the recall election as their best chance to overthrow a politician who never lost an election during his years as mayor of San Francisco, lieutenant governor of California and now governor – and their first chance to win a statewide competition since 2006 from GOP Moderate Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. re-election victory.
The organizers of the recall say they have collected more than 2 million signatures from voters – far more than the 1.5 million valid signatures needed to secure a recall election on the ballot later this year. The petition signatures were handed over almost two weeks ago to the registrars of California’s 58 counties. These counties now have until April 29 to verify signatures. The election will likely take place in November.
According to the new poll, 53% of likely voters in California approve of Newsom’s job as governor. This is basically unchanged from PPI’s previous poll, which was conducted in January. But that’s down from its peak of 65% last May, when Newsom’s approval ratings surged in the first two months after the pandemic swept the country. Similar to the recall question, there is also a large partisan division over Newsom’s work in the office.
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Baldassare stressed the importance of the governor’s approval rating for his ability to survive a recall election.
“While Newsom’s approval rating has fallen from record levels reached after the COVID-19 strike, it has remained in positive territory – importantly, it still has a solid majority of support among Democratic voters. probable, ”he said.
The governor attempts to characterize the recall as an attack on the Republicans and a continuation of the deep partisanship experienced in the 2020 election. Moreover, unlike Democratic Governor Gray Davis who, in 2003, did not take the effort seriously recall finally succeeded against him, Newsom is already fighting back.
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“I won’t be distracted by this partisan and Republican recall – but I will fight it,” Newsom tweeted earlier this month.
The PPI of California poll was conducted March 14-23, with 1,706 California adults surveyed by phone. The overall survey sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
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