The new majority in the House of Democrats will include more than a dozen members who have fired elected Republicans in some of the country's best-educated districts.
Voters with a bachelor's degree favored Democrats by a margin of 20 points in this year's mid-term elections, according to exit polls. Non-graduates told investigators that they also shared their vote between Democrats and Republicans.
The huge advantage, fueled by the anger of these voters towards President TrumpDonald John TrumpHyde-Smith prevails in the runoff in Mississippi after the public meeting between Trump, Cuomo and Tromo, at a meeting at the White House, to discuss an infrastructure project Ivanka Trump and Tim Cook visit the Idaho School District PLUS, helped the Democrats to procure a significant number of districts in the suburbs of the country. The Democrats captured 14 of the 18 Republican-controlled districts with the highest percentages of registered voters, and 17 of the 25 best-educated Republican districts.
"We are seeing an educational gap. The more educated you are, the more likely you are to vote for the Democrats, "said Evan Siegfried, Republican strategist and author of" GOP GPS: How to find the millennia and urban voters the Republican Party needs to survive. "
At the new Congress, Democrats will occupy 83 of the 100 districts where the highest percentage of voters holds a university degree. Of the 50 best educated districts, Republicans hold only four seats.
On the other hand, the two parties divide equally the 50 districts with the lowest levels of education, 25 seats each. This is partly because these districts are more likely to include large minority populations that favor Democrats more widely than unschooled whites prefer Republicans.
According to a review of election results and data from the US Census Bureau, the average Democratic controlled district is better educated, younger, and much more diverse than the average Republican controlled district.
At the next Congress, more than one-third of the voters in the average Democratic district, or 36.6 percent, will hold a bachelor's degree. Just over a quarter, 28.2% of people in the Republican-controlled middle district have a bachelor's degree.
The youngest voters are also moving away from the GOP at an alarming rate. Democrats occupy 24 of the 26 congressional districts with the youngest median age. the only two seats occupied by Republicans in this cohort are found in Utah, where fast growing populations, Mormon and Hispanic, are still conservative.
Even in the state of Beehive, Democrats got a seat in the House this year when the elected representative, Ben McAdams (D), was barely ousted by the representative. Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveDem, strategist concerned about Trump's focus on loyalty Repelled from GOP representative Mia Love about Trump's policy: "No real relationships, just convenient deals" Dem Ben McAdams defeated Mia Love of GOP for the Utah House PLUS headquarters (R).
Cheryl Russell, a demographer who runs the blog Demo Memo, said the trend over time should worry Republicans, who are pulling bigger and bigger percentages from a dwindling pool within the US. electorate.
"Educated whites in colleges make up a larger share of white voters because of the replacement of generations," Russell said.
Exit surveys and survey data show that the millennial generation favors Democratic candidates to a much greater extent than any other age cohort favors one or the other. Millennials and millennials are also more likely to have a university degree.
The breed is even more predictive than education or generation. Forty-four percent of white Americans voted for a Democratic congressional candidate in 2018, compared to 69 percent of Hispanics, 77 percent of Americans of Asian descent, and 90 percent of African-American voters, according to Pew Research data. Center.
More than four fifths of the inhabitants of the average Republican district, 82.2%, are white. By contrast, only two-thirds of the voters in the average Democratic district are white.
Of the country's 100 most diverse districts – districts with the highest non-white population – Republicans hold only 11 seats. In the top 50, they only hold one seat – Rep. Brian FitzpatrickBrian K. FitzpatrickPolitician Legislators' Group Proposes Decisive Carbon Tax For animals in default, a new USDA audit can not take place soon enough. Three ways in which House Dems can fight climate change when a radical policy is canceled MORES (R-Pa).
The growing polarization between educational, racial and generational lines has implications for the 2020 presidential race, when President Trump will seek re-election to a larger electorate than the one who has offered so many victories to Democrats this year.
The electorate this year was about 72% white, according to polls at the end of the polls. The percentage of white voters in the electorate tends to decrease every two years, as younger, more diverse generations reach ages when they are more likely to vote.
"As long as the Republican Party continues to bow to the grievances of the white working class, a growing share of white graduates from higher education will align with the Democratic Party," said Russell. "It will be even more true in 2020."
Siegfried, the Republican strategist, said his party should be more competitive in the suburbs where younger, more educated voters tend to come together and where Trump's approval rating has been so disappointing.
"The suburbs are socially liberal and fiscally conservative, which means that republican ideas are always viable. However, to start recovering these more educated suburban voters, we will have to act together, "he said. "The question is whether we are smart enough to do it before 2020."