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It is safe to say that expectations are high for the Cleveland Browns 2019.
Las Vegas has placed Cleveland at 9 wins and even reaching that goal would make it the first time since 2007 that the team has done so. The Browns are 18-1 to win the Super Bowl, consistent with Cowboys and Chargers, who both qualified for the playoffs last season. Only two teams (leaders and patriots) have a better chance of winning the AFC and the Browns are currently favorites to win the AFC North and hold a playoff match for the first time since 1994.
The Browns had a strong defense last season and they added talent both ahead (Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson) and back (Greedy Williams, Sheldrick Redwine and Morgan Burnett) this season. With Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Larry Ogunjobi, Joe Schobert and many others, this season should allow the defense to take a step forward, especially since it will now be coordinated by Steve Wilks rather than Gregg Williams.
As good as the defense may believe, it is likely that the weight of expectations will come back to the offense. It's where most of the Browns' personality resides and where they have a chance to really reach another level. The Cleveland offensive was delayed by former coach Hue Jackson for the first part of last season, but once Freddie Kitchens started playing the plays and Nick Chubb began to get carried away, Baker Mayfield and the company took off.
In the 10-17 weeks, no team was more effective on offense than the Browns, who posted an offensive DVOA that would have ranked second behind the Chiefs in a full season. In the eight games he started while Kitchens was in charge of the offensive last season, Mayfield threw for 2,254 yards and 19 scores. It's a pace of 4,508 yards and 38 touchdowns for the full season.
And now, he has to launch Odell Beckham. In five seasons in the NFL, Beckham averaged 6.6 catches and 92.8 receiving yards per game. While catching passes from Eli Manning. There is good reason to believe that it will be even better with Mayfield at the controls.
Consider: During his five-year career with the Giants, Beckham has been targeted by at least 120 rushing yards by Pro Football Focus. He had 39 catches for 1,482 yards and 13 touchdowns. This represents a completion rate of 32.5%, 12.4 yards per attempt and a landing rate of 10.8%.
His numbers on the ground shots were even worse when he was targeting receivers other than Beckham. Manning (and Geno Smith, for one game) completed only 57 of 185 passes for a total of 1,900 yards and 14 points. This represents a completion rate of 30.8%, 10.3 yards per attempt and a landing rate of 7.6%. Given these numbers, we can reasonably conclude that the problem in this case was not that Beckham could not be productive with back-lapping, but that Manning was simply not very good to do it.
Now let's take a look at Mayfield's 20-yard wide receiver count last season, and how it compares to Beckham's and other brands' Beckham Giants 2014-2018.
|
Jarvis Landry |
7 |
20 |
35.0% |
222 |
11.1 |
2 |
10.0% |
|
Antonio Callaway |
6 |
18 |
33.3% |
240 |
13.3 |
1 |
5.6% |
|
Rashard Higgins |
8 |
11 |
72.7% |
193 |
17.6 |
3 |
27.3% |
|
Breshad Perriman |
4 |
8 |
50.0% |
188 |
23.5 |
2 |
25.0% |
|
Damion Ratley |
1 |
4 |
25.0% |
23 |
5.8 |
0 |
0.0% |
|
Baker Mayfield (at WR) |
26 |
61 |
42.6% |
866 |
14.2 |
8 |
13.1% |
|
Odell Beckham (career) |
39 |
120 |
32.5% |
1,482 |
12.4 |
13 |
10.8% |
|
Other NYG WR (14-18) |
57 |
185 |
30.8% |
1,900 |
10.3 |
14 |
7.6% |
Those are significantly better numbers than those compiled by Manning over the last five seasons, despite the fact that Mayfield was pitched to a receiver of slot machines (Landry) and a group of That Guys. The Mayfield prorata figures on the same number of throws as Manning have attempted to receive non-broad Beckham receivers, and the difference seems even more striking.
|
Other NYG WR (14-18) |
57 |
185 |
30.8% |
1,900 |
10.3 |
14 |
7.6% |
|
Baker Mayfield (pro rata) |
79 |
185 |
42.6% |
2,624 |
14.2 |
24 |
13.1% |
Given Mayfield's superior capabilities, we should expect Beckham to be in 2019 an even more dangerous threat on the ground – that he has been up to now in his career. This means not only more catches, more yards and more touchdowns for these two players, but also increased efficiency for players like Jarvis Landry, David Njoku and Nick Chubb.
The defenses felt so much more threatened by Landry than any other receiver Browns last season, and the extra attention that they brought him was reflected in Mayfield's numbers. Targeting Landry, Mayfield completed 68 of 121 passes (56.2%) for 789 yards (6.52 AA), 37 first tries and four scores. When he targeted all other receivers, he completed 100 passes on 155 (64.5%) for 1,411 yards (9.10 YPA), 68 first tries and 10 scores.
Thus, Landry received 44% of broad reception targets with Mayfield under center, but the quarter was much more effective when it was launched elsewhere, largely because the defenses were more comfortable. leaving these players open. With Beckham attracting this attention this year, Landry should have enough space to function to become one of the league's most productive slots receivers. And with threats up and down, David Njoku should be in a position to finish the season of escape that has been planned for some time now.
Beckham slacking off efforts and preventing an extra player from falling into the penalty box should also benefit Chubb, who was already one of the league's most effective backs last season. In 2018, Pro Football Focus made Chubb the best career scorer, a year in which he also dominated the league in elusive rankings.
Although the link between the hasty performance and the effectiveness of the action-game is not as strong as traditionally believed, Chubb has achieved a degree of success similar to that of last season, which should improve the performance of Mayfield's action game. The Browns were among the lightest action-game users of last season, with just 23.3 percent of Mayfield's shots in Kitchens after a fictional race. But he was 45 out of 62 for 592 yards, four touchdowns, one interception and a 117.1 mark for throws. We have to see a lot more this season. And when we do, we should see him looking for Beckham at the bottom of the field most often.
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