El Niño is going to be El Dud; See what it means for the rest of winter and spring



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El Niño has finally been officially declared as being in progress, but it is a bit late. There is strong evidence that the strength of this El Niño has already peaked, and it has reached a very low peak. We will have to call it El Niño El Dud.


The warmer than average water that crosses the Pacific called El Niño.
The warmer than average water that crosses the Pacific called El Niño. NOAA

So what does this mean for our climate? This means that the weather changes usually associated with El Niños will not occur. NOAA, which makes the official statement on El Niño, has even stated that El Niño would not have changed the weather conditions normally.

And that means that the warming effect typical of El Niño winters will not occur. Of course, winter is more than half of its duration, but the strength of El Niños can bring mild temperatures for the month of February like Michigan. If the weather is mild for the rest of February, it's not because of El Niño.


The graph above shows how much the Pacific Ocean near the Equator has been warmer or cooler than normal over the last year.
The graph above shows how much the Pacific Ocean near the Equator has been warmer or cooler than normal over the last year. NOAA

The next change in weather conditions in the Great Lakes from El Niño is a usual switch to the colder and wetter months of March and April. I know it does not seem funny. But remember that without El Niño, the weather will not be changed, so a cold and wet spring may not occur.

Do not forget that El Niño is only one of the conditions contributing to the production of our seasonal climate. Although El Niño will not help produce a cold, wet spring, that does not mean we will not always have bad weather this spring. We always do.

But if you bet on the heat of El Niño in winter, forget about it.

We will have to give our crazy time to another factor. Or we can just realize that sometimes we just have a crazy time in Michigan.

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