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Nairobi (AFP) – The leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea are expected to meet soon to discuss the revival of frozen relations for decades.
Analysts believe that ending their dispute could transform Eritrea, whose policies
Here are four things to know about why the quarrel is so important to Eritrea – and why the end of this war could reshape the country.
What is the significance of the dispute for Eritrea?
Eritrea supports – and a United Nations-backed delimitation commission in 2002 – that Ethiopia illegally occupies land along the border between the two countries belonging to Eritrea [19659006]. that Ethiopia and Eritrea, an ancient Ethiopian province, went to war, from 1998 to 2000, in a conflict that caused about 80,000 deaths.
Since the end of the Algiers Accord in 2000, Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki, The Rejection of the Border Decision Subsequently to Justify a Range of Repressive Internal Policies
include the imprisonment of journalists and dissidents, refusing to implement the constitution and leading an indefinite military conscription program that the UN equates to slavery. was put on hold for 20 years and everything revolved around [the border dispute]"says Abraham Zere, exiled journalist and executive director of the Organization of Literature and Rights, PEN Eritrea.
Does Eritrea want a rapprochement?
The new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took the first step in June announcing that Ethiopia would withdraw from the city of Badme and other disputed border territories, in accordance with the 2002 decision. 19659011] Eritrea responded by sending two officials to Ethiopia, and later a meeting between Abiy and Isaias was announced, but no details were given.
"I think it's fair to say that Eritrea" The accession of Ethiopia to a political rapprochement, "says Michael Woldemariam, of the School of D & E Frederick S. Pardee's Global Studies of Boston University
has not yet been withdrawn from disputed areas, but it will respond to a long-standing Eritrean demand.] Abraham says that the & # 39; The offer was too good for Isaiah to refuse, even though by removing the Ethiopian threat he was likely to increase domestic pressure for reform.
"He is probably aware that it is the only way out. The peace proposal and the commitment of both sides is not an option, but a necessity, "says Abraham
How peace would benefit Eritrea
Closely, l & # 39; Eritrea and Ethiopia are among the poorest nations in Africa Analysts believe standardization of links would benefit both countries
Eritrean industries could serve growing markets of its southern neighbor much bigger and more populated. "Eritrea will win a lot, because it will be able to follow the economic momentum of Ethiopia," says Marc Lavergne of the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris
Woldemariam argues that the settlement of the dispute with Ethiopia could also stimulate foreign investors consider Eritrea as free of fear of incurring anger from Addis Ababa.
"It is likely that the improved relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea will further consolidate the Eritrean state." Peace could also help solve the Ethiopian problem of lack of peace. 39 access to the sea: the country became landlocked after Eritrea, which included the entire Ethiopian coast, had seceded in 1993.
five years later, Ethiopian goods were stopped by the ports of the Red Sea in Eritrea, but trade and transport could restart if the two countries reconcile.
"The port of Mbadawa will be stimulated and become one of the alternative ports
Nobody else , officially
Last week's breakthrough meeting between Ethiopia and Eritrea was not negotiated by any third party
.The United States and the Gulf countries have between the two countries and their dispute may have contributed to to accelerate the diplomatic thaw.
Eritrea has long accused the United States of taking sides, accusing Washington of not pushing Ethiopia Woldemariam says that the United States may have decided that It was time to find a new ally after Djibouti, a neighbor of Ethiopia and Eritrea who also hosts US troops. "Certainly, because of geopolitical developments in the Red Sea region – the presence of China in Djibouti, in particular – the United States has an interest in normalizing relations with Eritrea," Woldemariam points out.
Eritrea has also, in recent years, strengthened its links with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which allegedly opened a military base at the port of Assab, in the south of the country. Eritrea
The allies of Ethiopia have led some to see the role played by the Gulf behind the scenes.
"These countries have Eritrea under a financial drip. They certainly took part in Isaias' decision to negotiate, "says Lavergne
