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US and Chinese badysts often warn of a "turning point" in Sino-US relations beyond which the two countries conclude that conflict is inevitable and begin to prepare for war. Indeed, in the face of current bilateral tensions related to the ongoing trade war and the deterioration of political, diplomatic and military relations, one may wonder whether we are approaching this point.
Washington has not only reinforced its anti-Chinese rhetoric, some even going so far as to call the Middle Kingdom a new Third Reich, it is also upsetting China with new arms sales to Taiwan and threats of sanctions against detention camps in Xinjiang – both of which Beijing considers its sovereign territory.
In addition, the United States aggressively patrols the waters and airspace off the coasts and islands of China, trying to dissociate Sino-US interdependence, restrict cultural and educational exchanges, arrest leaders Chinese companies and try to form a coalition to yield and boycott Chinese investments. .
With the launch of the Committee on Current Danger: China and its guiding principle that "there is no hope of coexistence with China as long as the Communist Party governs the country", it seems that China can be designated as the next "regime" "change" after Venezuela and Iran.
While the United States is right to criticize China's deficiencies, such as Internet censorship, its minority policies, its religious restrictions, the militarization of the South China Sea, and its commercial mercantilist practices, the rise of anti-Chinese extremists in Washington sounded the alarm among choppy China. scientists.
Former US Assistant Secretary of State Susan Shirk, among others, warned that the inflation of the Chinese threat "could turn into a mccarthyite red fright," a concern shared by former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who observed that "the public space, the debate being considered and the discussion on the China issue are narrowing as the call for names develops."
Similarly, sinologist David Lampton of SAIS-Johns Hopkins University noted that after 20 years of badurance to Chinese intellectuals that US policy was not a confinement policy, his views have now changed, "he seems to me that we are headed in this direction. direction."
Ambbadador Chas Freeman joins Susan Shirk in urging the United States to strengthen its own competitiveness rather than trying to undermine the competitiveness of others, former President Jimmy Carter urging "no country should use" national security As an excuse to impede the legitimate business activities of the other. Activities. "
For Rudd, 2017 was a year marking a fundamental shift in doctrine in the United States from a strategic commitment to strategic competition with China. With the release of the 2017 National Security Strategy, the US National Defense Strategy of 2018, the outbreak of a trade war in June 2018, and the October 2018 Vice President Mike Pence's speech at the Hudson Institute, Rudd presumed that these various US declaratory intentions collectively, ended the "Sino-US strategic engagement" after 1978.
However, the origin of a "strategic competition" approach probably began much earlier, with President Barack Obama's 2012 "pivot to Asia" to the east, which then urged Chinese President Xi Jinping's "Western March" to cross Eurasia via the belt and the road. Initiative (BIS). For the first time, in a 2012 article of the Global Times, published in 2012 by Wang Jisi, in an article published by China, China felt unbalanced and encircled militarily and economically on its eastern flank by the through the Trans-Pacific Partnership focused on China and excluding China, strengthening the United States. military alliances and increased US military capabilities in East Asia.
In response to the rebalancing, China has followed Mao Zedong's dictum that "we retreat when the enemy advances. we are pursuing where "the enemy is retreating" and swung westward through Eurasia with the launch of the BIS in September 2013. Beijing hopes to avoid further Sino-US confrontations in East Asia and promote cooperation on non-traditional security issues. counter-terrorism and post-conflict stabilization in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Nevertheless, the West Pole has not offered cooperative dividends to China, nor eased bilateral tensions. In 2014, Chinese military expert Michael Pillsbury, one of the advisers to US President Donald Trump for China, wrote an article on foreign policy. entitled "China and the United States prepare for war".
He documented the Chinese military's high level of mistrust of the United States given that China was at the center of US war planning, forcing Beijing to prepare for the war. possibility of a war. Indeed, Chinese army officers note that reviews of US military institutes often contain articles on how to win a war against China, such as the laying of offensive submarine mines along China's coasts. to close its main ports and destroy its maritime communications lines. recommending arming China's restive minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet in order to destabilize the country and to contain Beijing by military alliances with countries of the first chain of islands stretching south of the islands d & rsquo; Japanese origin via the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippine Archipelago.
Washington's eyes are currently on the eastern flank of China in the Pacific, and on May 4, The National Interest reprinted an article on how a war could begin in the South China Sea.
Nevertheless, the Middle Kingdom may have a countermeasure, a known strategy called sheng dong ji xi (声东击西), meaning "make a fake in the east and attack in the west".
Washington should not be surprised if escalation continues with trade wars, boycotts, divestments and sanctions against Chinese products and investments, and that mutual military provocations lead to a "turning point" for China to attack in the west, joined by Russia and Iran.
Christina Lin is a California-based foreign and security badyst. She has extensive US government experience in security matters in China, including policy planning at the Ministry of Defense, the National Security Council, and the State Department. She is currently interested in relations between China, the Middle East and the Mediterranean.
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