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Here are the comments on Friday's GDP report, which showed economic growth of 4.1% in the second quarter, the fastest pace in nearly four years.
See: The US economy accelerates to 4.1% in the second quarter, the fastest in nearly 4 years.
• "Overall, these numbers are certainly high, but not unexpected, and should not alter the outlook for the Fed or the second half (inventories will be replenished in the third quarter, but exports will likely be weaker). – Avery Shenfeld, CIBC Economics.
• "In one line: it looks great, will not last," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. 'In the future, the big news of the third quarter will be the slowdown in consumption – the Q3 was probably spurred by tax cuts, but the effect of additional cash is now zero – and inversion of stocks and Q2 fluctuations. With investments and public spending growing steadily, this means that our initial working hypothesis for growth in the third quarter is about 3%. "
Q2 & # 39; 18: A lot, solid fundamentals and foreshadowing a trade war.The economy is undeniably strong, but the top line exaggerates the true underlying pace of growth. gross private investment decreased by -0.5% due to lower residential investment. pic.twitter.com/a8FaaVRQAH
– Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) July 27, 2018
• Jared Bernstein, former chief economist of Vice President Joe Biden, said that 4% is not sustainable.
Pretty Goldilocks GDP report: up 4.1%, justified by high spending of against, net exports (exporters are ahead of tariffs, that is, only once) Real growth is more reliable 2.8% year-on-year, still above trend. Core prices rise by about 2%, so the Fed should stay calm.
More to come …– Jared Bernstein (@econjared) 27 July 2018
• "There have been ad hoc contributions to the consumption of durable goods and foreign trade, but there is a real strength here. Watch for upward revisions to third-quarter growth estimates, particularly in inventories. "- Chris Low, FTN Financial
•" The consumer has been particularly impressive (+ 4%) with growth well above expectations. "That said, we will hasten to add that this result n & # 39; This is not the reality of more than the dismal 0.5% in the first quarter, and we expect consumption to return to near 3% over the next few quarters. "- RBC Capital Markets. [19659003] • "Net exports contributed 1.1 percentage points of GDP to GDP, their best result since the fourth quarter of 2013. Exports rose by 9.3% q / q, stimulated in part by some exporters who Imputed implementation of tariffs Imports were at a sustained pace of 0.5% q / q, a particularly low rate given the high domestic spending. "- Bricklin Dwyer, BNP Paribas.
See also: Made to check the victory lap of Trump after the second quarter GDP report.
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