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(The CONVERSATION) – The "decarbonization" of the energy system is above all an infrastructure problem.
Paul N. Edwards, Stanford University
Starting this month, the nations of the world will gather in a traumatized Paris to fulfill their commitments to slow global climate change. Any long-term solution will require the "decarbonization" of the global energy economy, ie the shift to energy sources using little or no fossil fuels .
How fast can this happen? 19659004] A look at the history of other infrastructure offers some clues
Energy Infrastructure
Decarbonization is an infrastructure problem, the largest one humanity has ever faced . It involves not only the production of energy, but also transportation, lighting, heating, cooling, cooking and other basic systems and services. The global fossil fuel infrastructure includes not only oil and gas wells, coal mines, giant oil tankers, pipelines and refineries, but also millions of automobiles, gas stations, tank trucks, depots storage, power plants, coal trains, heating systems. and the ovens.
The total value of all these infrastructures is in the order of 10 trillion US dollars, or nearly two-thirds of the US gross domestic product. Nothing so huge and expensive will be replaced in a year or even years. It will take decades.
Still, there is good news, in a way, in the fact that all the infrastructures end up using it. A 2010 study asked: What would happen if the current energy infrastructure could simply live its useful life without being replaced?
The Surprising Answer: If every used coal power station was exchanged for solar, wind, or hydro energy and every dead gasoline car replaced by an electric car, and so on, we could just stay in our planetary boundaries.
According to the study, the use of existing infrastructure until it breaks down will not push us 2 degrees Celsius global warming that many scientists consider as the upper limit of acceptable climate change.
The problem, of course, is that we do not do it yet. Instead, we replace the systems used by the same, while drilling, mining and building even more. But that could change.
Takeoff to build: a timeline of 30 to 100 years
Infrastructure historians like me observe a typical pattern. A slower phase of innovation is followed by a "take-off" phase, during which new technical systems are quickly built and adopted throughout an area until the end of the process. infrastructure is stabilizing at build-out.
through all kinds of infrastructure. In the United States, the take-off phase of cbads, railways, telegraphs, pipelines and paved roads lasted 30 to 100 years. The takeoff phases of the radio, telephone, television and the Internet each lasted between 30 and 50 years.
The history of infrastructure suggests that the "take-off" of renewable electricity production has already begun and will move very rapidly. when and where governments support this goal
Solar and wind power plants are currently emerging faster than any other source of electrical energy, with annual growth rates of 50% and 18% respectively from 2009 to 2014. These Sources can piggyback on existing infrastructure, pumping electricity into electrical grids (although their intermittent power generation forces managers to adjust their load balancing techniques). But wind and solar power can also provide off-grid energy to homes, farms and remote locations, giving these sources unique flexibility.
A 32 megawatt solar farm in Long Island, New York, a step in the transition to a low-carbon energy infrastructure brookhavenlab / flickr, CC BY-NC
Some countries, notably Germany and China, have made major commitments in renewable energy. Germany now derives more than 25% of its electricity from renewable energies, helping to reduce its total carbon output by more than 25% compared to 1990. China already produces more solar electricity than any other country. another country, with an installed base of more than 30 gigawatts. reach 43 gigawatts by the end of the year. In Australia between 2010 and 2015, solar PV capacity increased from 130 megawatts to 4.7 gigawatts – an annual growth rate of 96%.
Combined with complementary technologies such as electric cars, efficient LED lighting and geothermal heating and cooling could bring us closer to carbon neutrality.
Could 30 to 100 years for the development of infrastructure be accelerated? Some indicators suggest that the answer may be yes.
First, in the case of electricity, only the sources of energy must be replaced; Power grids – poles, wires, and other equipment that carry electricity – must be managed differently, but not rebuilt from scratch. Second, least developed countries can take advantage of renewable technologies to "jump" almost entirely over older infrastructure.
Similar events have occurred recently. Since 2000, for example, cellular networks have reached most of the developing world and at the same time avoided the slow and costly laying of vulnerable landlines, many of which will no longer be built outside of the world. big cities.
buildings, farms, informal settlements and other points of need with portable solar panels and small windmills, which can be installed almost anywhere without the need for power lines to long distance. This is already happening in all developing countries
In developed countries, however, the transition to renewable energy is likely to take much longer.
In these areas, not only equipment, but also expertise, education, finance, law, lifestyles and other socio-cultural systems support and s & nbsp; Support energy infrastructure based on fossil fuels. These too must adapt to change.
Some – especially the huge coal, oil, and natural gas industries – are likely to lose a lot in such a transition. These historic commitments produce a determined political resistance, as we see it today in the United States.
Difficult problems, including competition from fossil fuels
Energy infrastructure is obviously not the only challenge. Indeed, decarbonisation involves enormous technical difficulties.
Isolating old buildings, improving fuel economy and installing more efficient electrical appliances are by far the most cost-effective ways to reduce carbon footprints. Currently, and in the foreseeable future, no energy source can be truly "zero carbon", since fossil fuel-powered devices are used to extract raw materials and to transport finished products, including systems. renewable energy such as solar panels or wind turbines.
Electricity is a wonderfully flexible form of energy, but storing it remains an enigma; The best current battery technologies require lithium, a relatively rare element. And despite intensive research, batteries remain expensive, heavy and slow to recharge.
Rare earths – extremely rare elements found in a few places – are currently critical for wind turbines and other renewable technologies, creating legitimate concerns about future supplies.
Finally, in many circumstances, burning oil, coal and natural gas will remain the easiest and cheapest way to provide electricity.
For example, the main modes of transportation remain transcontinental transportation, air transportation and long haul trucking. very difficult to convert into renewable sources of energy. Biofuels offer an opportunity to reduce the carbon footprint of these transport systems, but many crops grown as biofuels compete with food crops and / or wild lands.
Yet the ultimate goal of providing all the energy needs seem to be achievable in principle. An important recent study has shown that these needs can easily be met only by wind, water and solar energy, at prices that do not exceed those of current energy systems.
Infrastructure as Social Commitments
Where does all this leave us?
Accelerated decarbonization can not be achieved solely through technical innovation, because infrastructure is not just technological systems. They represent complex networks of mutually reinforcing financial, social and political commitments, each with a long history and entrenched advocates. For this reason, a major change will require substantial cultural change and political struggle.
From the cultural point of view, a slogan that could inspire accelerated change could be "energy democracy": the idea that people can and must produce their own energy.
New construction techniques and the low cost of solar panels have resulted in "zero net energy" homes (which produce as much energy as their inhabitants) within the financial reach of ordinary people. It is a component of the ambitious Energiewende or the country's energy transition away from fossil fuels.
The Transition to Renewable Energy Infrastructure divatusaid / flickr, CC By-NC
In the history of the infrastructure, the takeoff phase has often accelerated when new technologies have left large companies and public administrations. adoption parameters by individuals and small businesses. Electrical energy in the early 20th century and the use of the Internet in the 1990s are typical examples
In Queensland, Australia, more than 20% of homes produce their own electricity. This example suggests the possibility that a "tipping point" towards a new social standard of solar roof has already been achieved in some places. In fact, a recent study found that the best indicator of whether a given homeowner adds solar panels to a home is whether a neighbor already had them.
Pieces of a Puzzle
Building codes could be gradually adjusted to require each roof to produce energy and / or achieve LEED standards of "green building" . A carbon tax or a gradually increasing cap-and-trade system (already in place in some countries) would stimulate innovation while reducing the consumption of fossil fuels and encouraging the use of fossil fuels. renewable energies.
The Obama administration's clean energy plan to reduce carbon production from coal-fired power plants is the right kind of policy change. It is gradually taking steps to give utilities time to adapt and develop nascent carbon capture and storage systems. The EPA estimates that the plan will generate $ 20 billion in climate benefits and $ 14 to $ 34 billion in health benefits, while costing much less.
Because greenhouse gases come from many sources: agriculture, livestock, deforestation (to name just a few), there is much more to decarbonize the global economy than to convert to renewable sources of energy.
This article only addressed that part of this very big puzzle.
The history of infrastructure tells us that decarbonization will not happen as fast as we would like. But it also shows that there are ways to accelerate change, and that there are tipping moments where many can arrive very quickly.
We may be on the brink of such a moment. . As the climate talks in Paris unfold, look for inspiration in the many national commitments to move this process forward.
Paul N. Edwards, William J. Perry Fellow in International Security, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
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