Next week – Elections, statistics, monetary policy and EU trade in the spotlight

On the macro

For the dollar:

The coming week is relatively quiet for the greenback, from the point of view of economic data.

Key statistics for the week are limited to existing home sales for April and new home sales expected Tuesday and Thursday respectively.

In parallel with Thursday's figures, preliminary figures for May's private-sector SMIs and weekly jobless claims are also expected.

At the end of the week, April's durable goods orders will also be the focus.

In terms of data, durable goods orders and service sector PMIs will have the greatest influence.

Outside of statistics, FED President Powell is scheduled to speak on Monday to several FOMC members to speak throughout the week. The minutes of the FOMC meeting are also expected for Wednesday, but discussions on the trade war may well remain the main target.

The dollar spot index ended the week up 0.68%, to reach $ 97,995.

For the euro:

It is a particularly busy week. Overall inflation in Germany and euro zone consumer confidence figures are expected at the beginning of the week.

Expect the euro to be particularly sensitive to consumer confidence figures.

A flood of data Thursday will be the key of the week. The final figures for the German GDP, the preliminary figures of the PMI private sector indices and the German business climate are expected.

We expect the focus to be on German GDP, manufacturing and business climate figures.

Apart from the statistics, ECB President Draghi will be speaking on Tuesday ahead of the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday.

L / # EUR / USD closed the week down 0.67% to $ 1.1158.

For the book:

It's a busier week ahead. May trend trends and April inflation and retail figures are expected.

April's inflation figures, released Wednesday, will be the main driver of the week.

April retail sales figures will also attract some attention at the end of the week. The numbers may reveal whether the high numbers in March were, in fact, hoarding.

Aside from the numbers, Tuesday's BoE report on Tuesday's inflation polls will attract attention early this week.

Brexit and the European elections, however, will be the main driver of the week. There will be a lot of action on the political front. Thursday's European elections and Parliament speeches on Brexit will drive the pound.

The GBP / USD closed the week down 2.11% to 1.2724 dollar.

For the loonie:

This is another relatively quiet week ahead. March retail sales figures are expected on Wednesday, ahead of wholesale sales figures on Thursday.

The focus will be on March retail sales figures that are expected to be negative for the loonie.

Apart from statistics, discussions between the United States and China on the trade war will remain the focus of concern. Sentiment towards the global economy will affect crude oil prices and the loonie.

The loonie ended the week down 0.31% to C $ 1.3458 against the US dollar.

Outside of Asia

For the Australian dollar:

The coming week is particularly calm. 1^st Construction figures for the quarter are expected Wednesday. are unlikely to influence.

Apart from the numbers, the RBA will release Tuesday the minutes of its monetary policy meeting and RBA governor Lowe will speak later in the morning.

Assuming the minutes leave few surprises, discussions on the trade war and market reaction in the federal election this weekend will likely be the main factor.

The federal elections produced a shock that should provide quick support for the Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar ended the week down 1.91% to 0.6868 dollar.

For the Japanese yen:

It's a busier week ahead. 1^st quarterly GDP and industrial production figures for March are expected Monday.

Later in the week, the focus will be on trade data and machine orders on Wednesday and the expected inflation figures on Friday.

Statistics can be expected to influence, with the Japanese economy shrinking in the 1^st quarter.

The yen's support could however come from a deterioration in the appetite for market risk. Any gossip in Beijing or Washington will obscure the statistics of the week.

The Japanese yen ended the week down 0.12% to 110.08 yen against the US dollar.

For the kiwi dollar:

1^st retail sales figures for the quarter are expected to be released on Wednesday, and those for the April trade on Friday.

After the fall of last week, weak numbers would raise the issue of a reduction in the rate of the RBNZ in the coming months. The Kiwi could end up at $ 0.64, especially the continuing commercial war rhetoric.

The kiwi dollar ended the week down 1.18% to 0.6519 dollar.

Out of China:

There are no material statistics due. The focus will remain on trading in the week. There could be market relief if Beijing put in place measures to support the economy.

geopolitics

United States – Commercial War with ChinaWill the US position be more flexible or will China adopt another retaliatory measure early this week? The trade war and prospects remain the main focus for the markets.

Brexit: The weeks of discussions between the parties did not succeed. At the end of Theresa May's time, Parliament could be active again this week. The indicative votes may well leave the pound on the back foot once again.

European elections: Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party seem to want to embark on the Brussels raid. Is this the beginning of the end of British politics? It's not just the Conservatives who have to worry. Projections point to an increase in support for populist and right-wing parties throughout the EU.