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Halfway through his first term, the Democratic governor of the country’s most populous state is working to control a pandemic that has crippled the southern half of California since Thanksgiving. The pandemic has given Republicans, long sidelined in this heavily Democratic state, a rare opportunity to hurt him. And Newsom strives to keep the state intact – and its own political future.
“People are really pissed off,” said Ted Costa, the anti-tax crusader who was the original promoter of the Davis recall. He signed Newsom recall papers last week in the parking lot of a Home Depot in Thousand Oaks. “Things can get hot quickly, and I don’t know if Newsom realizes what happens when a groundswell hits.
For Newsom, an ambitious Democrat with a national profile, the extent of the problem is unclear. The last Republican to win a governorship in California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, and that was almost 15 years ago. When Newsom won the governorship in 2018, he lifted the state by almost 24 percentage points. His public approval rating last year was 60%.
Yet the pandemic has worsened in recent weeks. And the frame of reference through which Californians view Newsom is set to change dramatically when Joe Biden takes over from Donald Trump in the White House. No longer enjoying a reliable track record in Washington, the bar of public approval for Newsom – and for Democratic governors across the country – is likely to be raised.
“In the last two years of Newsom’s tenure, people have said that the nation is going in the wrong direction and that the state, relative to the nation, is going in the right direction,” said Mark Baldassare, a pollster. seasoned and president of the California Institute for Public Policy. Now without a Republican president to judge Newsom, he said, “It certainly changes that point of contrast.”
Newsom has responded to the rise of the virus and its economic fallout with a series of proposals to help California’s most vulnerable and bring schoolchildren back to classrooms. Last month, he proposed a $ 2 billion effort to reopen elementary schools for the state’s youngest students, with additional protective gear and testing. Earlier last week, Newsom proposed giving low-income workers in the state a “quick” grant of $ 600. And in a boon to its political fortunes, the state budget, despite dire forecasts, is so healthy that Newsom on Friday released a budget proposal that calls for record spending while adding billions of dollars to reserve accounts. of State.
But good news has been scarce in California, and Newsom has not been without blunders. He came in for a beating after attending a dinner for a high profile political adviser at upscale restaurant The French Laundry – a handicap not only because Newsom enjoyed his evening as he discouraged Californians from rallying for them. vacation, but because the location was so chic. Californians who would otherwise have stopped making fun of him for this episode weeks ago have had more reason for frustration with the worsening conditions of the pandemic.
“In the city of Los Angeles and in our county, Covid-19 is now everywhere and infecting more people than ever before,” city mayor Eric Garcetti said at a grim press conference Thursday night.
Garcetti, a Democrat who has faced public pressure similar to what Newsom faces, blamed the federal government – not the state – for delays in vaccine distribution. But Newsom is being criticized by others for being too slow to distribute the Covid-19 vaccine, something the federal government has left to the states.
“I don’t think Californians can understand why we have hundreds of thousands of doses out there, and they’re not being administered,” said Garry South, a Democratic strategist who has advised the gubernatorial campaign to Newsom in 2010 and was a senior advisor to Davis. . “California has been through almost 10 months of hell, and now there is potentially a light at the end of the tunnel with these vaccines – but there’s no point if they aren’t administered.”
“You have to get these vaccinations in people’s arms,” he said.
Like other Democrats, Newsom blamed the Trump administration for the slow rollout of the vaccine, joining Democratic governors in seven other states last week in pressuring federal health officials to release more doses . And in the new administration in Washington, Newsom will have help. California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, who this month will be sworn in to take the seat of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, said in an interview that he plans to make “Covid, Covid, Covid” his top priority – and that he will work immediately to get Newsom all the help he needs.
At the federal level, Padilla said: “We know the vaccines have been approved, but we are still far from where we need to be in terms of production volume.”
For Newsom’s political purposes, the sooner the better. For years, Republicans’ messages on taxes, regulations, and social issues have fallen flat into the politics of governors here, a reflection of California’s predominantly Democratic electorate. But the coronavirus came as a boon to Newsom critics, providing an opening for anti-Newsom broadcasts that could resonate beyond the Republican Party base.
“In the midst of this pandemic, with so many people injured and now out of work, … we have 500,000 Californians who cannot get unemployment checks,” said former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, who this week launched a governor. exploratory committee. “How many parents are frustrated when they seek to see that the majority of private schools are up and running and yet we have not been able to safely reopen our public schools? This is unacceptable. “
He and other Republicans have presented Newsom as lacking leadership on the pandemic – a narrative that has been helped by the increase in cases despite the restrictions. “Look, all we’ve heard – throughout the year – from Gavin Newsom is that once we have the vaccine, all the issues will be resolved, the lockdowns will end and we can resume a normal life here in California, ” said Jennifer Kerns, a conservative talk show host and former GOP spokesperson. “And it isn’t.”
Joe Rodota, a former Republican strategist who left the party due to Trump’s influence and previously served as former Gov. Pete Wilson’s deputy chief of staff, said: “It all fell apart.”
In this context, the desire to recall Newsom is gaining momentum. Although recall efforts have been regularly mounted against governors and rarely qualify for the ballot, supporters of the anti-Newsom effort said on Tuesday they had surpassed one million signatures – about two-thirds of the number they had won. needed to force an election later this year – in part by soliciting signatures by mail from Republicans and independent voters. The effort recently attracted a donation of $ 500,000 from an Orange County donor who opposed Newsom’s orders limiting religious gatherings due to the coronavirus.
Dave Gilliard, the Republican strategist who helped orchestrate Davis’s 2003 recall and who advises Newsom’s recall effort, put the odds of qualifying for the ballot at around 80 to 85 percent.
“It has really taken off in the last couple of months,” he said, attributing the increase to what he called “the French Laundry surge”.
Newsom advisers are paying attention to the recall effort, conducting interviews and labeling supporters of the recall as “pro-Trump extremists.” Dan Newman, chief political adviser at Newsom, said that “the recall effort is mainly fueled by the same hatred, misinformation and lack of respect for democracy that drove national terrorists to storm Capitol Hill . “
Leaning on Faulconer and John Cox, the Republican defeated by Newsom in 2018, Newman said, “Trump’s Californian henchmen like Kevin Faulconer and John Cox are marching alongside the president, blindly following his lead in refusing to act. accept and respect the will of the president. voters. “
But Newsom’s advisers don’t advertise or hold press conferences, reluctant to give the air of an initiative they say is unlikely to be eligible without a significant injection of additional money. Supporters of the recall are expected to collect around 1.5 million signatures by March; making sure they have enough valid signatures means they will likely have to collect a lot more than that number.
And if the recall initiative qualifies for the ballot, Newsom’s recall will be a much bigger task. Republicans make up less than a quarter of the California electorate. And at the time of any recall election, which would only take place months after signatures are submitted, the mood of voters – then potentially vaccinated – could improve dramatically.
For now, Davis has said he expects Newsom to focus heavily on promoting the vaccine, which he says should “give people a feeling that this pandemic is going to end eventually.” And overall, given the challenges of the pandemic, Davis said Newsom has “done a remarkable job.”
“There’s a reason his audience approval ratings are always in the mid to high 50s,” Davis said. “It is completely transparent. He explains why he is going to do something. It tells you if it has been accomplished and, if not, why not. And I think there is an endearing quality about him that voters love.
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