Hottest Weather of Summer Next Week?

Unlike tornadoes, which just want to post selfies posted on Instagram and scare the you-know-what-out-of-people, hurricanes serve a purpose. They are nature's automatic pressure relief valves, transporting excess heat and moisture away from the tropics to the poles.

"Barry" should reach hurricane status this morning before slowly weakening inland. Hurricanes are trending wetter and slower – not a great combination. Most of the Injuries and Accidents from Inland Flooding, in some cases.

Thunderstorms are pressure relief valves too, nature's natural way of cooling off an overheated atmosphere. Stray storms may pop into next week, but the big story will be the building heat: ECMWF is predicting 7 of the next 10 days may bring 90-degree heat to the Twin Cities. Models suggest mid-90s late next week before refreshing Canadian air sweeps into Minnesota the last week of July. By the way, our hottest weather usually comes mid to late July. No exceptions this year.

Praedictix Briefing: Issued Saturday, July 13^th, 2019:

• Tropical Storm Barry continues to slowly move towards the Louisiana coast with some slight improvement. As of the 7 AM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had full winds of 70 mph and was moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA.
• Hurricane later today is a landmark along the Louisiana Coast as a Category 1 hurricane later today. From there the system will start to weaken as it continues to move further inland to north to northwesterly direction.
• Watches and warnings that are in place along the coast this morning include:
  • AT Hurricane Warning from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
  • AT Tropical Storm Warning from the Pearl River to Grand Isle, for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans, and from Intracoastal City to Cameron.
  • AT Hurricane Watch from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle and Intracoastal City to Cameron
  • AT Tropical Storm Watch from East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi / Alabama border
  • AT Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and Lake Pontchartrain
  • AT Storm Surge Watch from Biloxi to the Mississippi / Alabama border
• Across inland areas:
  • AT Hurricane Warning is in place for New Iberia and Houma (LA)
  • AT Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (LA)
  • AT Tropical Storm Watch is in place for Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)
• Impacts from this system will include:
  • Heavy rain and flooding: The heavy rain and flooding threat to the greatest impact of Barry, as rainfall totals of 10-25 "are expected across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. This heavy rain is likely to lead to a major, life-threatening flash flood event across the region, and there is a high probability of flash flooding southeastern Louisiana today. Across other portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley, rainfall amounts of 4-12 "will be possible.
  • Storm SurgeThe threat of a dangerous storm surge continues today from southern Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, where the Storm Surge Warning is in place. The highest inundation is expected of Intracoastal City and Shell Beach where storm surge flooding of up to 6 feet will be possible if the surge of water is timed with high tide. This will send rise inland to areas that are normally dry.
  • WindsLouisiana, hurricane-force winds will be possible today, with tropical storm forces expanding inland across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Barry As Of Saturday Morning. As of the 7 AM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Barry had a little bit of rain with winds of 70 mph. The system continues to slowly approach the Louisiana coast, moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The center of the system was located 50 miles west-southwest of Morgan City, LA, or 60 miles south of Lafayette, LA. A weather station located at Eugene Island, LA, has recently been reported to be winding with a wind speed of 85 mph.

Barry To Make Landfall Later Today. Barry will continue to move slowly towards the Louisiana coast this morning, making landfall in the next several hours. Barry becomes a hurricane, some additional strengthening to hurricane strength is forecasted before landfall. As Barry moves inland to north to northwest direction, weakening will begin, with the system becoming a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon. Even through this weakening will occur, Mississippi Valley and the Western Tennessee Valley rounds of heavy rain.

Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Due to the impact from Barry along the northern Gulf Coast, we continue to see Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings in this morning. The area under Hurricane Warnings are where hurricane conditions (winds of 74+ mph) will be possible during the day. Along the coast, tropical alerts are in place for the following areas:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for …
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for …
* Mouth of the River Pearl to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for …
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for …
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi / Alabama border

Across inland areas:

• Hurricane Warnings are in place for New Iberia and Houma (LA)
• Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for Alexandria, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans (LA)
• Tropical Storm Watches are in place for Gulfport and Biloxi (MS)

We will be watching the potential for heavy / flooding rains, storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and tornadoes with Barry into early next week. Here's a breakdown of the threats associated with Barry:

Heavy Rain And Flooding Threat

Heavy Rain And Flooding Event. We continue to watch the rain and flood that will result from Barry across the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. This is likely to be the greatest impact of the system in the region as a whole in the United States. There continue to be the potential of up to 25 "of rain in some locations. The heaviest rain with a tropical system typically falls along and east of the center of circulation, which would place New Orleans, Houma, and Baton Rouge in the expected heavy rain swath. 15-20 "of rain south of Baton Rouge and west of Houma. This multi-day rain event could lead to a life-threatening flash flooding event in the region beginning later today. Elsewhere across the Lower Mississippi Valley (Tennessee Valley), rainfall totals of 4-8 ", with isolated 12" amounts, will be possible through early next week.

Flooding Potential. Especially by this afternoon, heavy rain bands are expected to be impacting portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi with rainfall rates of at least 2-3 "per hour possible. This is likely to lead to one day totals (through Sunday morning) of 10-20 "south and east of the overall track of Barry. As of this morning, the sky is falling from Morgan City to Baton Rouge. This article presents a summary of the importance of flooding and flooding in the region of high-risk flooding in southeastern Louisiana and far southwestern Mississippi. Heavy rain will continue to be possible with the system moves northward, with Moderate Risks of flash flooding in place Sunday from northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas back to central Louisiana coast, and Monday across portions of northwestern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee.

Flash Flood Watches. Due to the heavy rain expected with Barry, Flash Flood Watches are in place from the northern Gulf Coast to western Tennessee and southeastern Missouri.

Storm Surge Threat

Dangerous Storm Surge. Coastal flooding will continue today, and we could see dangerous water rises along the coast due to a combination of storm surge and tide. This would cause areas that are typically dry to flood with water rushing inland from the shore. Already this morning has been reported on New Canal Station. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Barry:

• Intracoastal City to Beach Shell … 3 to 6 ft
• Shell Beach to Biloxi MS … 3 to 5 ft
• Lake Pontchartrain … 3 to 5 ft
• Biloxi MS to the Mississippi / Alabama border … 2 to 4 ft
• Lake Maurepas … 1 to 3 ft

Storm Surge Alerts. Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain, with a Storm Surge Watch from Biloxi to the Mississippi / Alabama border.

Wind Threat

Expected Peak Wind Gusts. Louisiana this morning, hurricane conditions will be possible later today in southern Louisiana that are under Hurricane Warnings. While strong tropical storm force winds will be possible as Barry pushes north into Louisiana, we will see the system start to weaken, which will help to decrease the threat of sunstroke.

Tornado Threat

Tornadoes Possible. With landfalling systems like Barry, it's typical of the world. The risk will be greatest today in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where there is a risk of severe weather.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

At Wet Week in Many Places. Here's an excerpt of a post from Dr. Mark Seeley at Minnesota WeatherTalk: "…NOAA scientists announced this week that for the period from July, 2018 to June, 2019 across the contiguous USA it was the wettest 12 month period in history. This previous year, which has been overpassed by the previous record of from May, 2018 to April of 2019. The same 12-month periods historically published in Minnesota

July 2018 to June 2019 4th wettest in history
June 2018 to May 2019 for wettest in history (with 2010-2011)
May 2018 to April 2019 3rd wettest in history

All 12 month periods delivered an average 12-month precipitation well over 32 inches. So the widespread wet weather pattern has caused a great deal of flooding on many rivers. In 2019 Many Weather Stations May Record Their Wettest Year… "

Midwest and USA Precipitation and Departures Since January 1 are courtesy of Praedictix and AerisWeather.

2019 Hurricane Files: Steps To Take Away From Hurricane Arrives. I wrote a post for Medium and Aerial ReadingsHurricane Fatalities – in recent years inland flooding has been (by far) the biggest killer: "…My plan … is to create a plan. " Hurricane season is here. Do you live in Hurricane Alley? Coastal residents bear the brunt of hurricane winds and storm surge (sudden rise in water levels ahead of the eye), but severe flooding impact homeowners hundreds of miles inland. In fact, in recent years inland flooding has surpassed storm surge as the biggest water-related killer. From 2016 to 2018 83% of fatalities were water-related, but only 4% of these were due to storm surge. Since 2018 the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami estimates that half of all hurricane victims died in the vehicles. Only 6 "of rapidly moving water can knock you off your feet; 2 feet of water can turn into a truck with tragic consequences... "

"A Floodier Future": Say Say Scientists Will Be Broken. The Associated Press reports: " The federal government is warning Americans to brace for a future "floodier". Government scientists predict 40 places in the United States of America. A report released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that sunny day flooding, also known as tidal flooding, will continue to increase. "The future is already here, a floodier future," said William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer and lead author of the study… "

Photo credit: "In this Oct. 5, 2017, photo file, residents move to "no wake," sign in flood waters caused by king tides in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Federal scientists, according to a report released Wednesday, July 10, 2019, predict 40 places in the U.S. will experience higher than normal rates of so-called sunny day flooding this year to rising sea levels and an abnormal El Nino weather system. "(Joe Cavaretta / Florida South Sun-Sentinel via AP)

Killer Hail in Greece. Daily Beast has details: "Six tourists, including two children, were killed during the night of the night. The unprecedented summer storm overturned caravans, downed trees and flipped cars in Halkidiki, south of the popular resort city of Thessaloniki. A medical center in the region treated over 60 people for injuries, including fractures, and a state of emergency for the region. Meteorologist Klearxos Marousakis described the 20 minute storm as "extremely unusual" noting that temperatures had soared to around 37C (98.6F) in previous days… "

Photo credit: SAKIS MITROLIDIS.

Managing Fresh Water Across the United States. Here's an excerpt from a post at NASA: "…The Army Corps wants to know how to change the country in the next 50-100 years, Arnold said, since it can affect how the body works its infrastructure, such as dams and hydropower plants. "Water security is having the right amount of water at the right time and the right place," Arnold said. "The tools developed by the project will enable them to manage their infrastructure," said Andy Wood, lead scientist at NCAR. Wood's team has been working closely with water managers in the United States and incorporating their feedback into tools that use NASA's Land Information System and Watershed Scale… "

Billions of Air Pollution Particles Found in Hearts of City Dwellers. A post at The Guardian made me do a double-take: "The hearts of young city dwellers contain billions of toxic air pollution particles, research has revealed. Even in the study of the subject, who was in the cells of the world? The study suggests these iron-rich particles, produced by vehicles and industry, could be the underlying cause of the long-established relationship between dirty air and heart disease. The scientists said the abundance of nanoparticles may represent a serious public health concern and that particle air pollution must be reduced urgently. More than 90% of the world's population lives with toxic air, according to the World Health Organization, which has declared the issue to global "public health emergency"... "

The Battle Between Streaming Platforms Is Getting Nasty, Here's How Much It'll Cost You. The nextweb.com has the story: "If you have not heard, Netflix is ​​leaking content: Netflix for HBO Max, The Office is leaving Netflix for NBCUniversal's upcoming streaming service, and all Marvel and Star Wars is leaving Netflix for Disney +. And this is just the tip of the iceberg … The streaming wars are about to get even more heated, with Disney, AT & T, Comcast, and Apple all set to launch their own direct-to-consumer video-on-demand services. Soon you'll have to pick and choose between Netflix, HBO Max, Disney +, Hulu (possibly bundled under Disney +), Apple TV Plus, Amazon's Prime Video, and possibly streaming service from the possible Viacom / CBS merger... "

But The Law Insists On It. Huh? The author makes some cogent points in a post at The Atlantic: "…In America, the freedom of movement comes with an asterisk: the obligation to drive. This Court has been echoed by the Supreme Court, which has pronounced the ownership of "virtual necessity." Yes, in a sense, America is car-dependent by choice-but it is also car-dependent by law. As i detail in a forthcoming journal article, over the course of several generations lawmakers rewrote the rules of American life to conform to the interests of Big Oil, the auto barons, and the car-loving 1 percenters of the Roaring Twenties. They gave a supremacy-that kills 40,000 Americans a year and seriously insults more than 4 million more. Include all those harmed by emissions and climate change, and the damage is even greater. As a teenager growing up in the shadow of Detroit, I had no reason to feel this way, much less encouraged by law. It is both… "

Polish Up Those Tin-Foil Hats. CNN has the story: "Over 300,000 people have signed up to a Facebook event in the area of ​​51 in Nevada in a quest to "see them aliens." The event, titled "Storm Area 51, They Can not Stop All of Us," is inviting users from around the world to join a "Naruto run" – a Japanese manga-inspired running style featuring arms outstretched backwards and forward heads – – into the area. "We can move faster than their bullets," the event page, which is clearly written with tongue in cheek, promises those who RSVP for September 20…. "

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86 F. high yesterday in the Twin Cities.

84 F. average high on July 12.

95 F. high on July 12, 2018.

July 13, 1933: An intense heat wave affects Grand Marais with a high of 90, extremely rare for that location. Most of Minnesota would exceed 100 degrees on this date.

July 13, 1890: A tornado hits Lake Gervais north of St. Paul. People rush from St. Paul to help victims and look for memories. One reporter notes that 'nearly everyone who has returned from the disaster last night with the moment (sic) denoting the cyclone's fury.'

SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: S 2-5. High: 87

SUNDAY: Excessive Heat Watch. Sticky sun, few T-storms around. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 70. High: near 90

MONDAY: Excessive Heat Watch. Sunny, windy and hot. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 72. High: 92

TUESDAY: Muggy, few T-storms nearby. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 73. High: 87

WEDNESDAY: Stormy start, then hot sunshine. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 71. High: 90

THURSDAY: Murky sunshine, stinking hot. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 73. High: 91

FRIDAY: Arizona with lakes. Sizzling sunshine. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High: 94

Climate Stories …

Climate Change Hurricanes Fills With More Rain. Warmer air + warmer water, more fuel for storms, including hurricanes. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "…In recent years, researchers have found that hurricanes are more likely to have a higher incidence of pollution, said Christina Patricola, a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and a co-author of The climate change is making tropical cyclones wetter. (Tropical cyclones include both hurricanes and tropical storms, which are hurricanes' less speedier kin.) Researchers have been studying the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones. Water in the gulf is 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer, according to Dr. Prein, who said: "This is really increasing the likelihood of a hurricane to form in this basin. And it will increase the intensity of the hurricane ... "

Flood Risks From All Sides: Barry's Triple-Whammy in Louisiana. InsideClimate News explains the unfortunate convergence of meteorological impacts that are swamping New Orleans and much of Louisiana: "…Climate scientist warn that as global warming trends persist, rising sea levels, coupled with more intense storms and heavy rainfall, will pummel coastal cities like New Orleans, making storm surge and rainfall flooding more frequent and recovery efforts more costly. "Water is the biggest risk," said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, noting that floods not only pose immediate danger, but also broadleaves risks by potentially spreading toxins and disease. The last time Hurricane Ida, said Jeff Graschel with the National Weather Service Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center… "

Alaska Chokes on Wildfires as Heat Waves Dry Out the Arctic. Perspective on the trends from InsideClimate News: "…Global warming has been thawing tundra and drying vast stretches of the far-northern boreal forests, and it also has more stretches of lightning, which triggered many of the burning fires in Alaska this year, said Brian Brettschneider, a climate scientist with the International Arctic Research Center who closely tracks Alaskan and Arctic extreme weather. So far this year, more than 1.2 million acres in Alaska, making it one of the biggest hits on record, with high fire in the coming weeks. Several studies, as well as ongoing satellite monitoring, show that fires are spreading farther north in the Arctic, burning more intensely and starting earlier in the year. temperatures rise… "

Photo credit: "Alaska Army National Guard helicopter crews fought a wildfire on July 4, 2019. This state is suffering from heat waves that have melted sea ice weeks early and dried vegetation,Credit: Spc Michael Risinger / U.S. Army National Guard.

By 2050 Many U.S. Cities Will Have Weather Like They've Never Seen, New Study Says. National Geographic has the story; here's an excerpt: "…To illustrate their findings the Crowther Lab in Switzerland created a global data map Minneapolis Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Minneapolis their south have today, he said ….Changes in temperature will increase, but will be dominated by more frequent extreme precipitation events and the severity and intensity of droughts. "The fate of major tropical cities remains uncertain," the study concludes... "

Changes Coming For Major Cities: Climate Nexus has links and headlines: "Washington, DC will feel like Nashville, London will be like balmy like Barcelona, ​​and New York 's will be like Virginia Beach as new in the world. A study published Wednesday in the newspaper PLOS ONE examined more than 500 cities and their projected future temperatures by 2050 with the current conditions of other major cities. The study also found that Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Singapore, will experience unprecedented climate conditions that do not have a present-day equivalent. "(The Guardian, CNN, National Geographic, Thomson Reuters Foundation)

File image: AP.

Even Republicans Are Aware That Climate Change is Happening. Odds are they differ from Democrats on what to do, which is the debate we need. Let's debate policy, not established science. Observe has the post; here's an excerpt: "…Three years ago, only 49 percent of the Republicans believed in climate change. Now, 64 percent of those in the GOP do, according to a Monmouth poll. Nationally, more than three-quarters of Americans and Democrats and Independents. And, this is not a geographical issue, in which only blue states buy it. Those on the coasts (79 percent) are just as likely to be in the nation's heartland (77 percent) to observe climate change, according to which Monmouth survey... "

Intelligence Aid, Blocked From Submitting Written Testimony on Climate Change, Resigns From State Department. Here's an update from The Washington Post: "A State Department intelligence official who was blocked by the White House from submitting the text of the report. Rod Schoonover – who worked in the Office of Intelligence and Research's Office of the Geographer and Global Issues – spoke before the House Intelligence Committee on the United States faces because of climate change. But White House officials would not be able to submit the report to the climate committee... "

Photo credit: "Rod Schoonover, an official intelligence at the State Department, speaks at a House Intelligence Committee hearing in June. "(Andrew Harnik / AP).