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DURHAM – Professor John Graham of the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University discusses the latest findings from the Duke CFO Business Outlook Survey in an email with Rick Smith, editor of WRAL TechWire.
- It seems strange to me that so many leaders are more optimistic about their own business prospects, as their concern about a recession intensifies. What are you doing with that?
The optimism of society depends on how its company will manage its own products, customers, etc. When businesses feel they have a good plan and good prospects with their customers for the next 12 months, they can have firm optimism.
The recession is 1) for the most part, next year not this year, and 2) more about the global economy, the global economy, hard-to-predict policymakers, and so on.
Survey: Financial leaders prepare for recession but have confidence in their own businesses and need talent
The recession is more of a threat that would slow things down in general, but would not necessarily significantly disrupt society's plans for the next 12 months.
- Recruiting / finding talent / keeping talent is again the main concern. How does this place if more leaders worry about a recession?
Try to hire to fill a need this year; the recession would be next year.
In addition, the shortage of talent is mainly about finding workers with ideal skills – companies want to hire these skilled employees even with an impending recession.
- To what extent does the trade war raise growing concerns about a recession next year?
Trade wars and the threat of trade wars add a lot to uncertainty. If businesses are reluctant to hire or incur expenses because of this uncertainty, it can slow down the economy (a self-fulfilling prophecy)
That said, 90% of US GDP comes from the national economy and 10% from exports. The concern over a recession is therefore not just about exports and trade wars.
- Immigration is such a big problem, but the results of your survey indicate that it is a much larger problem than the high tech companies that need to have. skilled immigrants. Does the fact that there are more open jobs than people looking for work is this a reason why companies want changes? Please, explain.
Some skill sets have been lacking for 5 years or more (technical engineers, some jobs in the health sector such as nurses, accountants, diesel mechanics, construction, etc.). Companies recognize that foreign workers can fill these positions and that it is necessary to fill them.
- However, the range of comments from directors clearly shows that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to address any concerns, from building a wall to opening borders. Do you see a type of consensus developing on the issue? Please, explain.
The consensus is "we need more skilled workers, we also need more seasonal workers". This is not unanimous, but there is strong support (~ 80%) for immigration reform. Note that we did not interview the CFOs about immigration in general, but about immigration in the context of the needs of their workers.
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