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DANIELLA PETERS,
AP
November 27, 2020 | 6:10 p.m.
MILWAUKEE (AP) – Figures from the coronavirus tests that have guided much of the country’s response to the pandemic are likely to be erratic over the next week or so, experts said on Friday as fewer people are tested during the Thanksgiving weekends and test sites observe shorter hours.
The result could be potential drops in reported infections that give the illusion that the spread of the virus is abating when, in fact, the numbers say little about the nation’s position in the fight against COVID-19. The number of Americans who tested positive topped 13 million on Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University.
“I just hope people don’t misinterpret the numbers and think there hasn’t been a big increase in the aftermath of Thanksgiving and then end up planning Christmas and Hanukkah and other travel plans.” said Dr Leana Wen, a professor at George Washington University and an emergency physician.
A similar pattern takes place over many weekends. Since some test centers, laboratories and state offices are closed on Saturdays and Sundays, the number of COVID cases often drops every Sunday and Monday, peaking on Tuesday.
Dr Mark Rupp, professor and chief of infectious diseases at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, said the Thanksgiving effect would likely be an enlarged version of the weekend numbers. Thursday’s vacation will exacerbate the record-keeping discrepancies over the long weekend, artificially lowering reported numbers for four or five days before climbing as test results catch up.
Johns Hopkins University reported a peak of more than 2 million tests a few days before Thanksgiving as people prepared to travel, but that number had fallen to less than 1.2 million tests on Thanksgiving Day. That latter number, along with the numbers of positive cases, which had dropped by about a third Friday, could be adjusted as more results are returned.
In several states and cities, officials reported steep drops in testing on Friday and reminded people not to read the improvements there. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said the drop means residents might not know for weeks how much their efforts to slow the spread have affected the state’s positive test rate.
As tests were down Thursday and Friday, health officials said they anecdotally saw an increase in the number of people tested before deciding whether to travel or congregate for Thanksgiving meals. They warned that testing is often a snapshot, not full assurance that someone hasn’t been exposed to the virus.
“I think it can be kind of a false sense of security for some people,” Rupp said, predicting that the vacation will be followed in a few weeks by another wave “because people kept traveling, they continued to to reunite apart from their immediate family. “
Experts are concerned about how people might interpret the situation after the long weekend, especially if it takes a few weeks for Thanksgiving exhibits to show up in the test data.
Cities and states typically use the number of hospital admissions and intensive care units, which are behind reporting virus cases, to determine when to increase or ease restrictions and public health recommendations. But the public is more likely to watch the number of tests or the number of cases, which could be misleading, Wen said, and waiting for hospitals to be overwhelmed is risky.
“Where we are now is a totally unsustainable place. I think it’s extremely frustrating for those of us who work in health care that our calls go unheeded, ”said Wen. “And the level of alarm that we have is not reflected in the behavior of individuals.”
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Associated Press editors Desiree Mathurin of Bay Shore, NY, and Claudia Lauer of Philadelphia contributed to this report.
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