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European model storm scheduled for 20:00 Wednesday. (PivotalWeather.com)
An unusually strong late winter storm is expected to intensify explosively in the western plains on Tuesday until Wednesday, triggering heavy rains, violent storms, howling winds and blizzard conditions in the center of the country.
The North Texas area across the Dakotas and Minnesota is likely to be the hardest hit.
Violent winds, potentially damaging, will affect a vast territory. High-wind watches were displayed from southeastern New Mexico across Nebraska. The gusts should reach 60 mph late Tuesday until Wednesday, and reach 80 to 90 mph on high ground.
"The models are consistent in developing one of the most dynamic systems I've known for a while in Kansas" in the middle of the week, wrote a forecaster at the office of the National Meteorological Service in Wichita. The forecaster explained that the simulated weather variables for the storm are statistically unusual – three to five standard deviations from the mean.
"Generally, when we see the values of three standardized anomalies, we are close to the recordings. This weather system has the potential to produce something more rare, "the forecaster wrote.
Sweeping Kansas, the system could challenge low pressure records for the region if the simulations of the model are correct. The lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
The storm will come from a disturbance in the Pacific Ocean that hit Monday night in northern Mexico. It is then planned to sail along the US-Mexico border, ejecting from the desert to southwest in eastern Colorado and western Kansas, Tuesday through Wednesday.
"As the powerful Plains storm reaches maximum intensity or minimum pressure, it will have a similar hurricane-like character," commented Weathermodels.com weather analyst Ryan Maue. "The strongest non-tropical storms, such as last winter's" cyclone bomb, "are developing clear zones similar to tropical systems in the center."
Indeed, the European model predicts that the central pressure of the storm will drop to around 970 millibars, which equates to a category 2 hurricane.
In addition to strong winds, the storm will generate heavy precipitation – rain and snow, depending on the location.
Threat of snow
Blizzard conditions may develop on the cold side of the storm in the western and northern plains between Wednesday and Thursday, including northeastern Colorado, southeastern Wyoming, western Nebraska , the Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Winter storm watches are in place in much of this region, including Denver, Cheyenne, Wyo. And to Pierre, S.D., and will probably be extended to the north.
The area under winter storm monitors the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. (National Meteorological Service)
More than half a foot of snow and gusts above 50 mph could create whiteout conditions in this area.
"Extreme blizzard conditions are expected in some areas," warned the weather service.
Threat of flood
In the warm sector of the storm, heavy, widespread rains that could cause flooding pose a threat to Kansas and western Wisconsin on Tuesday night. One to three inches of rain is expected on saturated soils.
In addition, from Nebraska to Minnesota and Wisconsin, the combination of heavy rains and the thawing of snow and ice could cause ice jams on rivers in the region.
Threat of severe storm
Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong winds and hail, are a source of concern along the southern flank of the storm, from Texas to Mid-South. The threat will move from west to east on Tuesday night.
From eastern New Mexico to western Oklahoma, "strong bursts" are possible in storms that fire late Tuesday afternoon before "maximizing" after dark. at night, according to the meteorological service.
On Wednesday, the risk of violent storms will move further south, from east Texas to western Tennessee via Arkansas.
After Wednesday
Although the intensity of the storm reaches its point on Wednesday, it is expected to produce a band of high winds in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday night until Thursday, as it crosses the south East of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
From Thursday to Thursday evening, showers and storms should cross the south, but few should be violent. On the north side, rain showers will be scattered across the eastern Great Lakes to snow on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern Minnesota.
On Friday, it will be weakened as it will propel itself into northeastern Canada, resulting in a cold front in the eastern United States with showers along the interstate corridor.
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