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Welcome to the CBS Fantasy debut of my weekly column, Flying signals. Whether you're new to this category or a previous player who has followed it in the past two seasons, I really appreciate you letting me be part of your football season.
Stealing Signals is: In simple terms, look at each team, player and situation, every week. But not as a preview of next week. A look back.
The seasons of the NFL are by nature small samples. This article, basically, seeks to deepen the numbers you see in your Fantasy Box score, to add the necessary context and to draw concrete conclusions about what we can believe and what is a mirage. The signal and the noise.
Along the way, we will cover instant accounts, discuss optimal touch combinations for the halves, the combination of goals and yards for the goaltenders, and I will give you the most noteworthy statistic that I have. have seen each match.
As some of my older readers know, I could be tired of making the same observations week after week about the bad teams that repeat the mistakes, so we could get away and have fun along the way. If you make this piece a weekly staple, I hope you will discover that there is a more in-depth review of the Fantasy takeaway that you will not see anywhere elsewhere but also that you will learn new ideas for How take what we watch on Sunday and convert it into decisions that will help you win your leagues and eventually become a better Fantasy player.
Data is usually provided by Pro Football Reference, RotoViz, RotoGrinders Premium Usage application, airyards.com or PFF. Do not hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @YardsPerGretch if you have any questions about anything that I have covered or to share my thoughts on something that I have occulted. This is one of my favorite reactions because sometimes it's something that has escaped me.
The week 1 was rich in performances, from the guys we were hoping to show and the others who surprised us a bit. It's still the longest flight signal of the season because it's 100% new information. Let's go inside.
Here are some important statistical acronyms for Stealing Signals:
Green Zone – Inside the 10-meter line of the opponent.
HVT – Keys of great value: for halves, all receptions and retouches inside the 10 meter line.
TRAP – Trivial percentage of precipitation attempts: for the halves, the percentage of all the contacts that are not contacts of great value.
WOPR – Weighted opportunity odds: a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, it establishes a balance between the target team share and the share of aircrafts team. Because the WOPR of a player is a part of the overall opportunity of his team, it is important to consider the volume of the team as an additional context.
RACR – Air Conversion Ratio of the Receiver: Also created by Hermsmeyer, the RACR is calculated by dividing the total number of receiving yards by the total number of air yards. Similar to receiving yards or yards per target, but per fleet.
Week 1
Week 1
Packers 10-Bears 3
The role of David Montgomery is a big story, but if it creates a panic, it's probably a buy. Just playing a role in the first week is a good sign for a returning recruit, and the workload often increases throughout the year. Nick Chubb last year and Alvin Kamara the year before benefited from the exchanges, but take a guy like Joe Mixon, who played less than 40% of the catches in his first two games in 2017 before going over this mark for nine times before an injury at week 12. . Jordan Howard had a rookie season for these Bears in 2016; he barely played the first two weeks before taking over from Jeremy Langford.
Another important note about regression by Bears is the frequency with which Tarik Cohen aligned in the slot (40 snapshots, by PFF). For this reason, Davis and Montgomery obtained an instant combined share of 94%. This was a positive sign for Montgomery, since he can only compete with Davis for a heavy workload, because Cohen played essentially a different role. Davis's seven targets in comparison to Montgomery's were also notable, but Montgomery operated 15 routes, as opposed to 26 for Davis by PFF. The road disparity looks more like the overall catch disparity than the 7: 1 target ratio and argues that Montgomery's reception would be void if his playing time did.
Similarly, the 60/40 division between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams is not big, but should not be a major concern as we are in Week 1 and Jones has not played in the pre-season. Jones has traveled a road more than Williams (15 to 14). As the Packers only played one piece inside the 10-yard line, Jones had only one touch of value (one receiving) on 14 keys in total. It's not great at first, but it's possible that its role will expand and the offensive may create more defenses against defenses that are not the Bears. Its value should have been only slightly affected, but we must keep an eye on its valuable contacts.
Allen Robinson's 13 goals and 149 rushing yards are a positive sign, and with Trey Burton injured and Anthony Miller not there, there should be a lot of optimism about his top-tier role. It was better last year than most realize. Even with Mitchell Trubisky's irregular play, Robinson won 100 yards.
Slow down Davante Adams was clearly at the center of the Bears defense and, at one point, Adams pointed and counted the three defenders surrounding him after an elusive target threw his direction. Mark Valdes-Scantling and Jimmy Graham have clearly outstripped Geronimo Allison as Aaron Rodgers' choice options with Adams, sometimes to triple-cover.
We do not want to overreact to a week, but we do not want to under-react. Allison was invisible in a game where Rodgers needed secondary options, while Miller looked worried about the increased use of Cohen slot machines (Cohen had gone 40 roads over 11), fewer clichés and fewer roads than Javon Wims and Cordarrelle Patterson. Since Allison and Miller were later picks in most leagues, they are already successful candidates in the shallower leagues because we will need the space of the list to reach the always-filled wire of renunciation of the first week. Both still have potential, but the potential is still a game of probability, and both have a lower probability of touching that potential today than they did before last night's match.
- Signal: Allen Robinson – strong use, Geronimo Allison – lack of involvement, Anthony Miller – lack of catch / roads
- Noise: Davante Adams – David Montgomery – Beginners are slow to work
Week 1
Rams 30-Panthers 27
Despite the score, it was a relatively uneventful game off the field. Cam Newton and Jared Goff both played badly and stayed close to the line of scrimmage. Newton's career in low ADOT for one season came last year, at 7.5. He was at 5.8 in Week 1. Goff was at 7.9 and 8.7 in the last two years under Sean McVay, but he averaged only 6.6 meters deep for his throws from the first week.
A conservative (and poor) game is less disturbing for Goff, since the Rams moved from west to east for an hour in the afternoon. AND game and leads all the way. For Newton, it's more of a concern, as is his lack of haste. Last year, he scored at least 20 rushing yards in 11 games out of 14. He had only three attempts to pass under 2 yards on Sunday.
The Rams and Panthers were very focused with their instant actions. Each of the Rams' three major receivers accounted for more than 90% of the vote, while they separated further between the back and the tight ends. Cooper Kupp looked healthy, and Robert Woods dominated his goals, but Brandin Cooks still saw six at 13.3 AOT, by far the highest on the team. He will have better days.
For the Panthers, each of McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen played at least 94% of the shots. There are only five skill slots on one offense, which leaves very little play time for other players. This is a great advantage for Olsen. Chris Manhertz notably played against Ian Thomas in two tight finals, although this was due to Manhertz's top lock. Thomas does not seem to play any role unless Olsen lacks time.
Given his level of involvement, Samuel should not react too much, but the lack of deep targets is a matter of concern given the problems associated with Newton's shoulders during the off season. Samuel's 6.2 aDOT was far from his mark of 11.9 last year. It will not be time to panic unless Newton is also willing or unable to broadcast it, starting with the Bucs in the second week.
Christian McCaffrey's 10 receptions and three green zone rushes gave him 13 valuable touches, five more than any other running back in the first week. That's the definition of the rise, and that translates into a total of Fantasy. He played 100% of the clichés, which he did frequently in 2018.
On the Rams side, Todd Gurley played an important role and was featured in the film while Los Angeles hailed the game late. But he also received only one touch of great value, a reception, while Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson combined their efforts for five green zone races. Part of that was perhaps related to the situation – Brown's four green zones came on orders where Brown got all the contacts, so it's possible that he's not a goal line as long as the Rams gave the ball to Gurley. . But Henderson Did the submarine leading into a green zone lead Gurley early in the game?
It's disturbing to see Gurley with a TRAP much higher than Brown and that he seems to need the extra gaming script to rack up eight of his 14 rushes and 64 of his 97 rushing yards in the fourth quarter . But he has also covered 71% of Jared Goff 's drop – off points, so we should probably expect more goals.
Although Henderson was surprisingly little involved – we knew that Brown would have a role to play, but it would seem that Henderson was too – he was not exhausted until we saw how keys spread over several weeks. We have no idea of Gurley's maintenance plan.
- Signal: Greg Olsen – all-rounder; Darrell Henderson – No. 3 RB for the moment
- Noise: Malcolm Brown – role on the goal line (he did not specifically replace those keys); Brandin Cooks – target share; Curtis Samuel – Target Share
- Snap Notes: John Brown – 86%, Cole Beasley – 70%, Zay Jones – 42%, Robert Foster – 22%, Devin Singletary – 70%, Frank Gore – 28%, TJ Yeldon – 3%, Dawson Knox – 55%, The & # 39, Veon Bell – 100%, Robby Anderson – 96%, Quincy Enunwa – 92%, Jamison Crowder – 90%, Ryan Griffin – 94%
- Key stat: The & # 39; Veon Bell – 100% snap share
If you wrote Devin Singletary, congratulations. Singletary was clearly ahead of the pack and played a huge role in the losses, making a run on 82% of Josh Allen's fall and five out of six targets. It only rushed four times, but it was largely because the bills were launched and then were written to give more passes. Singletary started and played heavily on the first two records; While Frank Gore finished with 11 races, his first attempt did not take place until the last game in the first quarter, and three of those races had to be delayed. He also won only 20 yards, while Singletary seemed explosive to collect 70.
It seems for the moment that Gore may be the trusted veteran in some tricky situations at first, but that might not last long given his production. He was tackled for a two-yard loss that created a safety when the team was saved on his own territory and failed to get a first try to clinch the match in three straight sets. Even though it continues to be a thorn in Singletary's rush attempts, Singletary's 70% share and his arduous work in the passing game are extremely remarkable.
The Bills receivers were about as high as they expected, with John Brown catching a late 38-yard touchdown on an overturned ball to take on an impressive 10-7-123-1 line. We know Smokey's talent, and he's clearly the # 1 here, but even in a heavy-handed scenario, Josh Allen threw for just 254 yards in 37 assists with 10 rush attempts (which limits pass volume ).
The two tight finals of the Bill 's have both been played, with the choice of the third round, Dawson Knox, leading the team' s tight ends, while choosing the seventh round and the l '. Pre-season star, Tommy Sweeney, finished with more yards in receiving. Neither one nor the other is really an option if they divide the reps.
A strong trend of Adam Gase's time in Miami was to have 11 staff members and really high catch percentages for all of its top three recipients. This was reported on the Jets, with each of the three major receivers playing at least 90% of the snapshots. In a somewhat surprising way, this also applied to Le & # 39; Veon Bell, who played at each strike.
Bell's workload was exactly what you expected to know if you invested in a first-round pick. He wore 17 times and was targeted nine times, capturing six assists, including one touchdown. His cap will not be as high in this attack as it was with the Steelers, but the offense showed that he had potential in the pre-season and that he was impossible to argue with a half-defender playing 100%.
Jamison Crowder has been targeted 17 times, capturing 14 times, playing the role of Jarvis Landry in Gase's offense, as everyone suggests. This is an easy start for PPR.
Anderson was not very productive, but accumulated 121 yards and should have had at least one big game played by Sam Darnold. It is also a good game of the future, plus a boom or recession option.
Ryan Griffin also played a leading role (94%) in what was probably the precursor of an important role for Chris Herndon on his return from suspension. If it is available, it creates a solid reserve.
Ty Montgomery is now just a pure handcuff.
- Signal: Devin Singletary – an important part, a heavy pass job; Jets – Snaps and highly concentrated roles
- Noise: Frank Gore – leader of rush attempts (did not play a lot of clichés, and these are still low value rushes)
Week 1
Titans 43-Browns 13
- Snap Notes: Corey Davis – 74%, Tajae Sharpe – 49%, AJ Brown – 43%, Adam Humphries – 36%, Delanie Walker – 48%, Derrick Henry – 59%, Dion Lewis – 43%, Odell Beckham – 100%, Jarvis Landry – 100%, Rashard Higgins – 44%, Nick Chubb – 70%, David Njoku – 90%
- Key stat: Tennessee – 28/24 run / pass split
Although the final score was unbalanced, Tennessee led with just nine points in the fourth quarter. Their instant actions have not been influenced by beginners, which makes their rotation remarkable.
Delanie Walker, for example, caught her two touchdowns at the fourth goal, and the Titans only played six pieces after her second touchdown. He represents 67% of Mariota's comebacks, a good percentage, but was not a full player.
ONE J. Brown was the star of the passing game, although he and Adam Humphries were overtaken by Tajae Sharpe. Brown (18) and Humphries (13) have traveled more routes than Sharpe (11), and I'm a big supporter of Brown as a player and I caught him in this season's Dynasty formats . But for the quality of his eyes during the first week, it is still an offense that has launched only 24 passes and rotates the catchers, which makes it difficult to trust any of them. Brown deserves a less expensive speculative investment, for now, hoping his role will grow.
Derrick Henry hit a home run on his only reception and cashed one of the two rushes of his green zone, but that means he scored on two of the three high-value hits that he had it for the day, while he has amassed 17 low value keys to complete his Fantasy total. He made a run on 33% of dumps, the same number as Dion Lewis. Put in this offensive context, I am always very comfortable to be completely out of it this year.
Overall, the Titans seemed to be playing, they played only 52 plays and converted short runs to 21 points for the fourth quarter after Baker Mayfield was intercepted three times in the last period. Part of their low volume of play is related to their own offensive efficiency, but this game alone can not paint a picture of the next offensive juggernaut.
It was a disappointing start for the Browns, no matter how far. It should be noted that they still managed more yards than the Titans (although many more games), but you can not explain an unfortunate stretch of seven runs from the middle of the first quarter to the third quarter where they cashed five times, took a security and were not able to score in the two minute exercise to close half.
Beckham, Landry and Njoku have all played huge shares of instant purchase. The 70% of Nick Chubb was very solid and, although he lost a touchdown against Dontrell Hilliard in the eighth game of a long and long run, he saw half of the withdrawal goals and ran on 55% of Mayfield's fall, a very solid number for a half-round.
Hilliard (18% of instant shares, routing 20% of returns) shared backup work with Ernest Johnson (12%, 11%), rendering them unusable. Rashard Higgins looked good early in the race, but made a run with only 45% of returns online, less than Damion Ratley's (52%).
- Signal: Tennessee – unconcentrated pass game at low volume; Nick Chubb – played a lot of lost passes
- Noise: Derrick Henry – 14.5 points receiving Fantasy points (on a take); Cleveland – general offensive woes (new coach, new staff, it's ok to give them some time)
Week 1
Ravens 59-dolphins 10
- Snap Notes: Seth Roberts – 68%, Willie Snead – 65%, Chris Moore – 42%, Miles Boykin – 23%, Marquise Brown – 18%, Gus Edwards – 38%, Mark Ingram – 32%, Justice Hill – 30%, DeVante Parker – 76%, Allen Hurns – 70%, Jakeem Grant – 60%, Preston Williams – 42%, Albert Wilson – 12%, Kenyan Drake – 54%, Kalen Ballage – 40%
- Key stat: Lamar Jackson – 17/20, 324 passing yards, 5 touchdowns
Games like the ones Crows just had can cause Fantasy analysis problems. There are, however, some good points to remember. No, Miami's defense was not the only reason why Lamar Jackson did what he did. He has been on multiple pitches, downhill and in the shortest zone – the tilt of Hollywood Brown at home was as much a perfect placement as his ability. Yes, as Twitter was quick to tell me, there was a ton of YAC on the coin. It's also YAC that was generated by the combination of a great pitch, Brown's way of playing, as well as by the badly played corner half and by the lack of safety in sight .
But although we should definitely have higher expectations for Jackson as a smuggler after attending his week 1, we also need to recognize that when the raw numbers (yards, touchdowns) decrease from the week 1 benchmark, all the catchy or even the halves can be as productive.
Although Mark Andrews played less clichés than Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst, he was tied for the lead with 18 races and is considered one of the best reception options. The tight ends combine for a total of 15 targets out of 26 attempts, so there does not seem to be any change from Jackson's rookie year trends.
Seth Roberts and Willie Snead were next on the 18 and 17 year old team. Brown was incredible, but only played 14 times and made only eight runs. Part of this may be due to the score, as he was out and productive at the beginning of the match. They did not need to keep him on the field late since he had missed the end of the season due to a foot injury. It's still a priority addition, unlike Roberts and Snead. Do not forget that there have been a lot of rotations here and that there will not always be 379 yards on receptions and six touchdowns to separate. Ideally, the roles of Brown and Miles Boykin will increase rapidly and we can focus on those two and Andrews.
Mark Ingram had an excellent game in what was a perfect setup both in terms of defense and scenario. It would not be surprising that this was his best game of the season, as Jackson continued to show that he was unlikely to aim for the half-goal position and determine back rotation.
The last Ingram intervention took place at the beginning of the fourth quarter, so its instant market share is not fair. But while Ingram led every half of the week with five green zone races, Gus Edwards was right behind him with four, including one on the first practice of the game and another in the second quarter, both playing just before one of Ingram's goals. two short touchdown passes. The Saints led the league in rush attempts in the RB Green Zone last year with 3.4 per game. We can not expect the Ravens to generate nine similar opportunities most weeks. So, splitting these keys is a problem.
Judge Hill reacted a bit like a change of pace, but he had no valuable touch and continued to work as a change of pace after Ingram's departure as Edwards was the main guardian to salting. We will need to see more, but this could be an indication of how the work could split if Ingram was running out of time.
There is not much to say about dolphin performance. The Kenyan Drake played in front of Kalen Ballage, but neither was productive behind a lamentable offensive line and against an elite defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick did his best to work with FitzMagic, but was eventually replaced by Josh Rosen, who quickly launched an interception.
There was a heavy rotation of WR, which means that I will probably avoid all the dolphins. It was nice to see Preston Williams make an athletic pass for a touchdown, and DeVante Parker had 163 yards, the fourth-biggest of the week. But even with Fitzpatrick's willingness to say it, the situation is not great and we do not know exactly who will make consistent runs in any match. Albert Wilson was perhaps the favorite to lead the team in this department, but he only traveled five routes before getting hurt in the calf and leaving the game. It will be worth watching because he was targeted four times before leaving the game.
- Signal: Lamar Jackson – that's fine; Miami – is bad
- Noise: Baltimore – offensive global production; Mark Ingram – in more than one committee his production suggests
Week 1
Chefs 40-Jaguars 26
- Snap Notes: Sammy Watkins – 96%, Hardman Mole – 78%, Demarcus Robinson – 63%, Damien Williams – 66%, LeSan McCoy – 29%, Darwin Thompson – 3%; Leonard Fournette – 86%, Dede Westbrook – 83%, Chris Conley – 76%, DJ Chark – 71%, Marqise Lee – 21%, James O 'Shaughnessy – 66%, Geoff Swaim – 50%
- Key stat: Sammy Watkins – 0.88 WOPR (second highest of week 1)
Unfortunately, Kansas City's victory over Jacksonville began with two major injuries. Tyreek Hill suffered a shoulder injury that will keep him away for several weeks and could make him a candidate for a short term IR. Nick Foles suffered a fractured collarbone that will probably prevent him even longer.
Somewhat surprisingly, the chefs did not miss a beat. When it became apparent that Hill could be suspended during the off-season, Patrick Mahomes was worried. Therefore, his ability to display big numbers on the road in Jacksonville without his WR1 says a lot about his rehearsal potential this year.
Sammy Watkins was second only to DeAndre Hopkins in the Weighted Opportunities Ranking (WOPR) this week, which at first glance is an incredible place for the strength of his offense. Its massive production will be difficult to replicate, but Patrick Mahomes and his 99 targets are among the top 10 receivers if he supports him.
In addition, Mecole Hardman saw only one target, but this is an inevitable addition, as he ended up executing a route on 79% of Patrick Mahomes' backtracking. Tyreek Hill traveled 21%, so it's safe to say that Hardman was essentially his direct replacement. Since Hill will be away for a while and the Chiefs look good, Hardman could be a flexible short-term weekly.
Sean McCoy was more effective than Damien Williams, but Williams dominated snapshots and high-octet throws with eight out of two. When the Chiefs got the better of the match, Williams had the chance to pick a jet motion in the first game, which was not converted. Two games later, he took a transfer inside for the touchdown. If he continues to manage the passes and get a job on the goal line, he will still be very productive.
But that does not have to be something! McCoy's contacts have probably been somewhat limited as he moves forward, but a line of 10-81 rushes must also be considered a positive element for his value. Williams will not have all the chances of scoring, and McCoy has caught a pass, so he's not worthless in his own right.
Leonard Fournette's 86% catch share is very interesting and was beaten by just McCaffrey, The 'Veon Bell and David Johnson among the defenders of the league. We heard a lot of rumors in which Fournette would play an important role this year, and it was clearly in decline during the first week. He has seen six out of seven targets for RB in Jacksonville and, although the offense may sometimes go wrong with Foles on the shelf, the volume will be there for Fournette.
Gardner Minshew is the substitute for Foles, and he has played well, even though he has accumulated 127 of his 275 passing yards and two touchdowns by coming back in the fourth quarter against a Chiefs' defense that has not helped. was already not excellent but who also played. Still, it's hard to hit a day from 22 to 25.
Surprisingly, it was D.J. Chark and Chris Conley with the majority of production on Dede Westbrook. Chark was a solid hope from LSU, who runs a pass from 4.34 to 6-foot-3. It is therefore not surprising that he totals 106 yards over four targets, which he has all captured. Il va avoir du succès, mais son émergence et le manque de temps de jeu pour Marqise Lee indiquent probablement qu'il va rester dans la formation.
Westbrook a trouvé la zone des buts en retard et a amassé cinq des six cibles, mais pour seulement 30 verges. Son ADOT était un minuscule 0,8, mais il a mené les récepteurs dans les clichés et les routes. Il ira bien.
James O'Shaughnessy et Geoff Swaim se sont séparés, mais c'est O'Shaughnessy qui a joué plus et qui a parcouru plus de routes, si vous êtes dans une ligue serrée.
- Signal: Leonard Fournette – charge de travail énorme; Sammy Watkins – rôle de réception énorme; Mecole Hardman – remplacement de Tyreek Hill; Damien Williams – de nombreuses touches de grande valeur
- Bruit: Jacksonville passe la production du jeu – beaucoup de temps perdu contre une mauvaise défense
Semaine 1
Vikings 28-Falcons 12
- Snap Notes: Adam Thielen – 89%, Stefon Diggs – 60%, Chad Beebe – 26%, Kyle Rudolph – 100%, Irv Smith – 49%, Dalvin Cook – 68%, Alexander Mattison – 23%, Mohamed Sanu – 85%, Calvin Ridley – 78%, Julio Jones – 68%, Austin Hooper – 79%, Devonta Freeman – 50%, Ito Smith – 50%
- Stat clé: Minnesota – 10 tentatives de passes
Ce que les Vikings ont fait lors de la première semaine était un affront au football moderne. Leurs 10 tentatives ont été les troisièmes moins nombreux par une équipe au cours de la dernière décennie. Les puristes pressés étaient ravis par la profondeur avec laquelle la course avait été établie.
Il n'y a pas grand-chose à dire sur le jeu des passes que la ligne de passe de 8/10, 98 verges de 98 yards de Kirk Cousins ne dit pas déjà. Stefon Diggs était un peu foutu, alors il n'a joué que 60% des prises de vue, mais il a effectué un parcours sur toutes les… 11 retombées de Cousins. Les Vikings ont tenu leur promesse de faire plus de deux apparitions serrées, puisque Kyle Rudolph a joué 100% des instantanés, tandis que la recrue Irv Smith était encore présente pour 49% d'entre eux.
Ce type de scénario et cette situation sont une aubaine évidente pour un porteur de ballon – et ne peuvent en fait se produire que lorsque le jeu est lancé – et la ligne de Dalvin Cook le montre également.
La grande question est de savoir ce que cela signifie. Et la réponse n’est pas grande. Personne ne s'attendait à ce que les Vikings lancent une tonne cette année. Ils auront une attaque passagère très concentrée, cependant, donc Adam Thielen et Stefon Diggs seront toujours solides. Ces deux sont beaucoup plus "acheter" que "vendre" après la semaine 1; L'année dernière, les Seahawks ont enregistré le plus petit nombre de tentatives de passes de toutes les équipes au cours des cinq dernières saisons et ont enregistré 26,7 tentatives de passes en moyenne par match. Les Vikings effectueront donc beaucoup plus de passes lors d'un match sur deux cette année, même s'ils font partie de la série. -les équipes les plus lourdes de la ligue.
Des choses étranges se passent dans le football. Nous ne pouvons pas exagérer. Et si le compagnon de ligue avec Thielen ou Diggs is une réaction excessive, allez les chercher.
Atlanta avait un air affreux à l'offensive, bien qu'ils aient pu enchaîner deux passes de touché au quatrième quart. Le match était 28-0 à l'approche de la dernière période, et nous ne pouvons guère en retirer plus de leurs performances offensives. Atlanta a joué la plupart de ses habitués dans le quatrième quart, donc Ito Smith a joué 50% des instantanés. Les quatre cibles de Devonta Freeman sont arrivées au quatrième quart et, s'il s'est retrouvé avec plus de HVT (3 à 2), c'est Ito qui a parcouru plus de routes ce jour-là (23 à 20) et obtenu le seul essai de précipitation de l'équipe dans la zone verte. , une perte d'un yard de la ligne des 2 yards au troisième trimestre. Ito a clairement une valeur autonome derrière (ou à côté de) Freeman, alors que la valeur de Freeman doit subir un coup avec cette performance.
Austin Hooper a été un autre bénéficiaire des 18 tentatives de passe du quatrième quart de Matt Ryan, qui a attrapé cinq balles dans la dernière période pour porter sa ligne à 9-9-77. Calvin Ridley et Julio Jones ont tous deux marqué au quatrième but.
Étant donné qu'il s'agissait d'un match contre la forte défense du Minnesota, il n'y a pas grand chose à lire. Si vous avez inscrit ces gars, c'est bien qu'ils aient une certaine production de temps perdu.
- Signal: Devonta Freeman / Ito Smith – temps partagé; Minnesota – étaient sérieux au sujet de vouloir courir plus
- Bruit: Minnesota – presque tout ce qui concerne leur jeu de passe (tirez la semaine 1 sur la lune); Austin Hooper – un peu de son grand jour
Semaine 1
Eagles 32-Washington 27
- Snap Notes: Alshon Jeffery – 80%, Nelson Agholor – 80%, DeSean Jackson – 69%, Miles Sanders – 48%, Darren Sproles – 31%, Jordan Howard – 23%, Zach Ertz – 83%, Dallas Goedert – 55%, Trey Quinn – 97%, Terry McLaurin – 93%, Paul Richardson – 78%, Chris Thompson – 64%, Derrius Guice – 36%, Vernon Davis – 82%
- Stat clé: Terry McLaurin – 7 cibles, 143 verges aériennes
Washington a obtenu le premier saut sur Philadelphie, ce qui a créé un premier script pour que la partition finale ne rende pas justice. C'est remarquable parce que les Eagles ont été l'une des équipes les plus sensibles au scénario au cours des dernières saisons. Dans celui-ci, ils ont perdu 17-0 en fin de deuxième quart et 20-7 à la demie.
Cela voulait dire que c'était l'heure de D-Jax. DeSean Jackson a effectué des réceptions au touché des 51 et 53 verges à son retour aux Eagles et a transformé 10 cibles et 142 verges aériennes en une ligne de 8-154-2. Nelson Agholor a également été fortement impliqué dans les sets de trois largeurs, tandis qu'Alshon Jeffery a capté un touché de 5 verges et a également marqué ce qui s'est avéré être une ruée de 2 verges sur un coup rapide conçu.
Jackson, Agholor et Zach Ertz ont emprunté des routes sur 78% des véhicules en baisse de Carson Wentz, derrière les 85% de Jeffery.
Miles Sanders a obtenu les première et troisième tentatives du jeu, et malgré le fait que le scénario soit un classique de Darren Sproles, Sanders a facilement joué le jeu le plus renversant à 48% et a effectué le plus grand nombre de routes avec 16 points. Jordan Howard – qui a combiné 17 itinéraires entre eux – en a eu trois chacun. Cela suggère que Sanders devrait être en ligne pour plus d'objectifs à venir.
Pendant ce temps, Sanders a obtenu deux tentatives de rush de la ligne des 3 verges, les deux tentatives les plus rapprochées des Eagles ce jour-là, à l'exception de la "course" de Jeffery, et un touché potentiel de 21 verges annulé par une pénalité de maintien sur son compatriote recrue J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. By comparison, Howard saw five of his eight touches on a 19-play drive that chewed up nearly nine minutes of the fourth quarter after the Eagles got the ball back with a 29-20 lead.
Sanders' box score line only shows 12 touches for 27 yards, but it was a very promising day for the rookie. He's a trade target if you can get him.
Case Keenum put together a strong start for Washington, notably hitting Vernon Davis for a 48-yard score in the first and rookie Terry McLaurin for a 69-yarder early in the second. Of all the rookies who performed well in Week 1, McLaurin's 93% snap share stands out. He's a clear waiver wire target, and I'd have him ahead of Hollywood Brown on the basis that McLaurin is already a full-time player and put up a 7-5-125-1 line on the Eagles.
Interestingly, Washington found themselves in a pass-heavy script too, and threw 15 straight times on a long drive that ended with a futile Trey Quinn touchdown with 12 seconds left to cover the spread. The vast majority of Keenum's production came from the two early deep balls and this final drive, and he's not someone I would recommend adding unless you're in a 2QB league and in dire need.
Chris Thompson saw six of his 10 targets on that drive, and while Washington will likely be in similar situations throughout the season, Thompson's 64% snap share was likely elevated by what we're now hearing was an injury to Derrius Guice. Adrian Peterson was inactive, and Guice is now headed for an MRI on his non-surgically repaired knee. Should Guice miss time, Peterson will be around to likely prevent Thompson from getting his snap share over 60% too many more times.
- Signal: Miles Sanders — lead back already, Terry McLaurin — full-time player
- Noise: Chris Thompson — 10 targets (6 on final drive)
Semaine 1
Chargers 30-Colts 24
- Snap Notes: Keenan Allen – 83%, Mike Williams – 64%, Travis Benjamin – 48%, Dontrelle Inman – 42%, Austin Ekeler – 75%, Justin Jackson – 25%, Hunter Henry – 91%, T.Y. Hilton – 89%, Devin Funchess – 57%, Chester Rogers – 40%, Zach Pascal – 37%, Parris Campbell – 29%, Deon Cain – 17%, Marlon Mack – 76%, Nyheim Hines – 27%, Jack Doyle – 68%, Eric Ebron – 40%
- Key Stat: Austin Ekeler – 18 touches, 154 yards, 3 touchdowns
Austin Ekeler's Week 1 was the embodiment of what can happen when a low TRAP back gets a bigger workload. We may have expected a bit more of a timeshare with Justin Jackson, but Ekeler wound up playing 75% of the snaps, and he notably maintained a low TRAP, rushing just 12 times (including twice in the green zone) against six catches on seven targets. In other words, eight of his 18 touches were HVT. He scored on three of those.
Jackson was also very good, and is very much still worth a stash, but had a more traditional workload. Whereas Ekeler ran 27 routes, Jackson carried six times for 57 yards and caught just one pass. He did see three targets, but ran just seven routes.
Mike Williams exited with a knee injury, though he did play nearly two-thirds of the snaps and run 27 routes. It's unclear when he suffered the injury or how much time he might miss, but both Dontrelle Inman and Travis Benjamin were involved behind him. The two main downfield options were Keenan Allen (36 routes, 10 targets) and Hunter Henry (32, 5), and the passing game would be expected to flow through them and Ekeler should Williams miss time.
Rumors of the Colts' demise appear to have been exaggerated. Yes, the Chargers are a different defense without Derwin James. But Jacoby Brissett played very well as something of a game manager, while Marlon Mack racked up 174 rushing yards and a score on 25 carries behind an offensive line that will keep the Colts from bottoming out.
Mack's production is especially notable given the Colts trailed throughout. Mack's big play was a 63-yard touchdown at the 7:51 mark of the third quarter, with the Colts trailing by 15. Given that it worked and the Colts were able to get back into the game and force overtime, we should expect the Colts to not abandon the run as quickly when trailing as they did in 2018 with Andrew Luck under center.
I included six Colts' wide receivers in the above snap notes, primarily because Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal weren't targeted and won't show up in box scores but played more than Parris Campbell and Deon Cain. It looks like Devin Funchess could miss some time, but it will be hard to pin down who the top target is behind T.Y. Hilton.
It might be the tight ends, who split the work. Eric Ebron ran 16 routes to Jack Doyle's 13, and neither was very productive. Ebron did get an end zone target but lost out on the touchdown due to bobbling the ball as he went out of bounds.
As for Hilton, he was exceptionally productive, posting a 9-8-87-2 line. Given Brissett threw just 27 passes in a game where the Colts needed to come back, I'm not overly optimistic he can follow that up with similar performances. He'll be solid and doesn't have a ton of competition for targets, but he was also wildly efficient in what looked like a conservative offense and that makes him a sell high candidate if someone is interested.
- Signal: Colts — will run regardless of script, Austin Ekeler — top-10 RB play while Melvin Gordon is out
- Noise: T.Y. Hilton — 3.2 PPR points per target
Semaine 1
Cowboys 35-Giants 17
- Snap Notes: Michael Gallup – 78%, Amari Cooper – 76%, Randall Cobb – 71%, Ezekiel Elliott – 54%, Tony Pollard – 32%, Jason Witten – 66%, Blake Jarwin – 40%, Sterling Shepard – 99%, Cody Latimer – 88%, Bennie Fowler – 72%, Saquon Barkley – 80%, Wayne Gallman – 20%, Evan Engram – 77%
- Key Stat: Dak Prescott – 301 air yards, 9.4 aDOT (eclipsed both just three times in 2018)
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore orchestrated a phenomenal Week 1 showing for the Cowboys, whose passing offense was more vertical and exceptionally effective. Both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup broke 100 yards as Dak Prescott threw for 405 yards and four scores. His 301 air yards and 9.4 aDOT were both elevated from last year's seasonal numbers, and he eclipsed both marks in just three games last season.
They won't be this good every week, but there's not really a "but" — it's a really rosy picture through one game. Randall Cobb ran a route on 75% of dropbacks and was productive in his new digs, while both Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin scored from the tight end spot. Witten played a considerable number of snaps — he used to be a 100% snap share guy almost every week; it was nothing like that — and ran a route on 56% of Dallas's dropbacks. I'm not sure I could start Witten right now, but I also wouldn't be adding Jarwin outside of deep formats given he only ran a route on 25% of the dropbacks.
It's extremely likely Ezekiel Elliott's workload was culled due to his being away from the team all of August. He was far more efficient than Tony Pollard, and while YPC doesn't really matter to us, it matters to coaches. I suspect the fact that Elliott had more than double the rushing yards of Pollard on the same number of carries will accelerate whatever timeline may have been there. Expect a big workload in Week 2.
For the Giants, Cody Latimer saw 164 air yards, third most on the week. Latimer wasn't particularly good, catching three of eight targets for 74 yards, but his role opened up the underneath for Evan Engram to feast to the tune of 14 targets, 11 receptions, 116 yards and a score. Sterling Shepard was used similarly, and had an even lower aDOT than Engram's 5.1, as Shepard posted a 7-6-42 line at an aDOT of 3.0.
Saquon Barkley had a 59-yard run on his first carry, but was held back by the offense a bit after that. He caught four of six targets for just 19 yards and added just 10 more carries for another 61 yards after the initial big play. To make matters worse, the Giants were trailing by enough that Wayne Gallman was in late in the fourth to steal three catches and a two-yard touchdown run on the final two drives.
Still, Saquon finished with an 80% snap share, fifth-highest among all Week 1 backs, and it's hard to imagine Saquon getting any fewer than the 15 touches he got here.
- Signal: Cowboys — more vertical passing offense; Evan Engram — target monster
- Noise: Saquon Barkley — 15 touches; Cowboys — some degree of the passing efficiency and perhaps even volume (given Zeke's likely enhanced workload)
Semaine 1
Cardinals 27-Lions 27
- Snap Share: Larry Fitzgerald – 96%, Christian Kirk – 93%, Damiere Byrd – 88%, KeeSean Johnson – 76%, Maxx Williams – 25%, Charles Clay – 16%, David Johnson – 87%, Chase Edmonds – 11%, Kenny Golladay – 98%, Marvin Jones – 81%, Danny Amendola – 53%, T.J. Hockenson – 73%, Jesse James – 58%, Kerryon Johnson – 57%, C.J. Anderson – 30%
- Key Stat: Kyler Murray – 570 air yards (21st most in a single game since 2012)
The Cardinals had four wide receivers play at least 75% of the snaps, which I can confidently say I haven't seen before. Over the last several years, 11 personnel has grown in popularity, and there are several teams like the Rams and Adam Gase's aforementioned Dolphins (and now Jets) that lean on it nearly exclusively. As many expected given Kliff Kingsbury's history at Texas Tech, the Cardinals ran the logical next step of that evolution — tons of four wide sets.
We do see offenses that do this frequently, but they tend to still use a tight end or perhaps a running back split out. Not the Cardinals. They went with all wide receivers; their tight ends combined for 36 total snaps of a possible 89.
Speaking of the total volume, that trended similarly to the productivity. Through three quarters, Kyler Murray was 9/25 (36%) for 70 passing yards and an interception. In the fourth quarter and overtime, he was 20/29 (69%) for 238 passing yards and two touchdowns.
The Cardinals did wind up running a whopping 89 plays, but it took five periods to get there, and for most of regulation they struggled. Here's to hoping what we saw in a great fourth quarter comeback and into overtime will translate to next week, from the first quarter on. I'm willing to assume it might, given it was both the head coach and quarterback's first taste of the NFL.
Also, by the end of the game, we had this:
That's very promising for Fantasy.
As for individual players, Larry Fitzgerald was the Week 1 star, turning 13 targets and 156 air yards into eight catches for 113 yards with a pair of filthy diving catches in key spots. Christian Kirk's 12 targets and 139 air yards speak to better days than his 4-for-39 receiving line. And then KeeSean Johnson and Damiere Byrd, just by virtue of playing such big snaps in this offense, become waiver targets. Johnson had 10 targets and 113 air yards, while Byrd had seven and 72. Each of those four receivers ran routes on at least 83% of Murray's dropbacks.
I discussed the issues with David Johnson's 2018 usage — specifically Mike McCoy's unwillingness to split him out — back in June, and Week 1 was a very, very positive sign.
Johnson appeared headed for an underwhelming day, though he almost certainly should have scored on a 7-yard run down to the 1 late in the second quarter, but instead almost voluntarily went out of bounds, something he acknowledged after the game.
He got another chance at a big moment and didn't miss it, catching a late 27-yard touchdown (nearly all air yards) that, combined with the extra period, propelled him to a strong Fantasy total. His 87% snap share was also massive, given the team ran so many plays. He's back, baby.
Detroit also got a nice volume boost from the extra period, and we likely saw far more passing from Matthew Stafford than we'll see most weeks. T.J. Hockenson was a clear star with a 9-6-131-1 line, a phenomenal first performance for anyone, but especially a rookie tight end. Danny Amendola and Kenny Golladay joined him as Lions with at least nine targets and 120 air yards.
Amendola's 13-7-104-1 line also stands out, if only because of the easy comparison to Golden Tate's old high-volume role. But much like the Ravens' and Cowboys' writeups earlier, we do have to be concerned about whether both Amendola and Hockenson can be productive at the same time when the volume — Stafford threw 45 passes, more than any of his final 14 games in 2018 — and overall production comes back down a bit, especially assuming Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay will likely be the lead receiving options most weeks.
An even bigger concern would be Kerryon Johnson, who totaled just 62 scoreless yards despite the play volume bump. His workload screamed TRAP back, as he saw just two targets despite the team's 45 passes and racked up 16 low-value rush attempts. In fairness, the Lions never called a rushing play inside the 10.
- Signal: Arizona — could have four Fantasy-viable WRs; David Johnson — massive snaps, 7 HVT; Kerryon Johnson — high TRAP workload
- Noise: Christian Kirk — 4 catches, 39 yards (buy the 12 targets, 139 air yards); Detroit — overall play volume, pass attempts
Semaine 1
Seahawks 21-Bengals 20
- Snap Notes: Tyler Lockett – 91%, DK Metcalf – 77%, Jaron Brown – 77%, Malik Turner – 32%, Chris Carson – 77%, Rashaad Penny – 26%, Will Dissly – 51%, Nick Vannett – 45%, Damion Willis – 90%, John Ross – 82%, Tyler Boyd – 79%, Giovani Bernard – 62%, Joe Mixon – 38%, C.J. Uzomah – 70%, Tyler Eifert – 49%
- Key Stat: Seahawks – 25/20 run/pass ratio
There was talk that the Seahawks might throw a little more this year, but Week 1 seems to indicate they are still content living in the dark ages. They barely squeaked out a home win against the A.J. Green-less Bengals despite their superstar quarterback posting a 134.6 passer rating. How do you do that? Only let him throw the ball 20 times.
Wilson did take four sacks, and rush four more times, but it's hard to believe Seattle is still content with limiting him this much. The good news? Their pass defense was awful, allowing Andy Dalton to set a career high in passing yardage. Against most teams, that may mean trailing rather than the relatively neutral script they were in throughout this one.
D.K. Metcalf was utilized heavily early on and made a couple very nice plays en route to a 6-4-89 line. It wasn't until the first play of the fourth quarter that Tyler Lockett got his first target, which went for a 44-yard touchdown. Lockett was targeted again on the next drive and had a pretty bad drop on what could have been another solid gain. Those were his only two targets.
Chris Carson was the real story, leading the team with seven targets and adding two green zone rush attempts for eight total HVT. He also played a whopping 77% of the snaps, verifying that he is the clear lead back. Seattle heads to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team reeling from a primetime loss to New England, so we'll see if they are forced to air it out a little more in Week 2.
Cincinnati's big storylines were Joe Mixon's injury (which led to Giovani Bernard's high snap share, but which should only require a minimal absence, if at all) and John Ross's emergence. Ross still showed some of the drop issues that have plagued him, and his second touchdown was a total "Rahim Moore in the AFC Championship" misplay from Seattle safety Tedric Thompson to allow a long touchdown with seven seconds left in the first half, but there's still plenty to be optimistic about.
The Bengals ran a lot of three-wide receiver sets, a staple of Sean McVay's offenses that new head coach Zac Taylor worked in. That meant each of Ross, Tyler Boyd and Damion Willis ran routes on at least 82% of Dalton's dropbacks, and means that when A.J. Green does return, there will still be a role for Ross.
There's still reason to believe in Ross long-term, despite the bust label he's already been saddled with. He hardly played as a rookie, and Sports Info Solutions deemed 50% of his targets last year uncatchable, the highest rate in the league, which helps explain his putrid 36.2% catch rate. There also seemed to be some distrust between Ross and former coach Marvin Lewis, but it seems evident Taylor wants to utilize his rare speed.
Ross and Boyd dominated targets with 12 and 11, while Tyler Eifert and C.J. Uzomah split the tight end production nearly down the middle. They combined for nine catches on 11 targets and 93 receiving yards, but Eifert's 6-5-27 line on 26 routes and Uzomah's 5-4-66 on 24 are far less enticing on their own, especially considering Dalton's gaudy numbers with 51 pass attempts and 418 passing yards.
- Signal: Seahawks — eternally run-heavy; Chris Carson — very strong workload; Tyler Eifert/C.J. Uzomah — splitting TE reps
- Noise: Cincinnati — passing production inflated; John Ross — fluky long touchdown before half (saw encouraging volume, but the stat line was definitely juiced)
Semaine 1
49ers 31-Buccaneers 17
- Snap Notes: Deebo Samuel – 88%, Marquise Goodwin – 74%, Richie James – 38%, Dante Pettis – 3%, Matt Breida – 44%, Tevin Coleman – 26%, George Kittle – 91%, Chris Godwin – 91%, Mike Evans – 86%, Breshad Perriman – 64%, Dare Ogunbowale – 39%, Peyton Barber – 36%, Ronald Jones – 31%, O.J. Howard – 79%, Cameron Brate – 44%
- Key Stat: George Kittle – 10 targets, 37% target share
This game had a little of everything. I'm not sure I've ever seen a player get two touchdowns called back on the same series, but that happened to Cameron Brate. He wasn't even the only player in this game to have two touchdowns called back!
It also happened to George Kittle, who was the clear No. 1 for San Francisco and was very close to a monster game. Kittle was targeted early and often, starting with two catches on three targets on the first drive. He missed out on potential touchdowns of eight and 22 yards, but still racked up 10 other targets, with eight catches for 54 yards.
The wide receiver situation was more complicated. Deebo Samuel and Marquise Goodwin played the most, but you wouldn't know that from their stat lines. Richie James provided the big play on limited snaps. And Dante Pettis was on the field for just two offensive snaps.
Here's how Kyle Shanahan explained the Pettis situation: "He had health issues. That's why he missed a week of practice. He just got cleared to come back on Monday, so he was a little behind the 8 ball on that. But he didn't start the game, and we didn't have a ton of long drives where we got into the substitution flow. He went into this game backing up, and when he did go in there, from everything I saw live, he did a hell of a job. So hopefully, he'll work off that and continue to earn some more time out there."
Setting aside James' 39-yard touchdown, the rest of the receivers combined for five catches on 10 targets for a measly 33 yards, so there's a decent case to be made Pettis will play more in Week 2. But for now, he's borderline droppable.
Tevin Coleman suffered a high-ankle injury and looks likely to miss time, which will leave the backfield primarily to Matt Breida, with Raheem Mostert as the No. 2. San Francisco's offense only generated 264 total yards — they won this game because Jameis Winston lost it — so there wasn't a whole lot in the way of production notes on the running backs, either.
On the Bucs' side, Winston was a mess, throwing three interceptions, two of which were returned for scores. For what it's worth, Garoppolo also threw a pick-six, and defensive players scored more touchdowns than offensive players in this game (though still fewer than offensive touchdowns that were called back). I told you this game had a lot going on.
The receivers struggled as Winston did, though Winston did rack up over 300 air yards which was a promising sign — there is still plenty of verticality to this offense after the coaching change. That was expected with Bruce Arians taking over for Dirk Koetter.
O.J. Howard played big snaps, but ran a route on just 55% of Winston's dropbacks, while Brate's route run percentage was 48% and he had the two nullified touchdowns. That's not ideal for Howard backers.
The big news in the backfield was Ronald Jones looked quick, and late in the game, with the Bucs down six points, they turned to him with five straight carries (one was negated by a defensive offside). He racked up 30 yards on the first three that counted, before a two-yard loss led to a 3rd-and-7 and a sack of Winston, ending the drive.
Jones finished with a 13-75 rushing line and an 18-yard catch, for a very solid 93 total yards on 14 touches. He got both green zone rush attempts for the Bucs, giving him three high-value touches. That said, it's very much worth noting that Dare Ogunbowale led the Bucs backs with 18 routes run (Jones ran just four, while Peyton Barber ran 12). On balance, this was a very positive outcome for Jones, and I expect his workload to expand in the coming weeks.
- Signal: George Kittle — 10 targets; Dante Pettis — apparently a second-teamer right now; Ronald Jones — promising Week 1, but we'll want to see some more passing-game work
- Noise: George Kittle — two touchdowns called back; Jameis Winston — we've seen him play bad before
Semaine 1
Patriots 33-Steelers 3
- Snap Notes: Julian Edelman – 96%, Phillip Dorsett – 87%, Josh Gordon – 67%, Jakobi Meyers – 11%, James White – 47%, Rex Burkhead – 46%, Sony Michel – 33%, Ryan Izzo – 64%, JuJu Smith-Schuster – 90%, Donte Moncrief – 90%, Ryan Switzer – 67%, James Washington – 52%, James Conner – 46%, Jaylen Samuels – 33%
- Key Stat: Rex Burkhead – 46% snap share, 22 routes run, 8 targets
The Patriots trounced the Steelers on Sunday night, and we saw some interesting usage trends, though it's hard to know how much weight to put into any of them with the knowledge Antonio Brown should be joining the team for Week 2.
Perhaps the biggest storyline of the Patriots Week 1 win was Rex Burkhead's involvement. Whenever he's been healthy throughout his career, he's had a role, which is why I talked about him in deep sleeper terms this offseason. He out-targeted even James White, though White did run six more routes, but it's an indication that Sony Michel isn't likely to see more receiving work. That means he'll need green zone rushes to get any HVT. He's looking like the TRAP back he was last year, which has some value but not much upside.
Other than Burkhead and White's 15 combined targets and 10 combined catches, we saw a typical 11-6-83 line from Julian Edelman and four high-efficiency targets each for Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett is not someone to add because he's the swing guy — he plays when they have room, but after the team acquired Gordon last year his snap share fell to almost zero. He's the guy Brown will replace.
But while Brown will replace Dorsett's snaps and routes, he'll also likely command more than four targets in a given game. My expectation is Tom Brady's aDOT will rise a bit as he trades off some of the short, safe throws toward the running backs we saw Sunday night for more downfield options.
The Steelers were a mess. JuJu Smith-Schuster was shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, who posted PFF's second best coverage grade among cornerbacks in 2018. I couldn't be less concerned about him, especially given the team's insistence to utilize Donte Moncrief heavily. Moncrief had several lapses and generally looked like the same inconsistent player he's been throughout much of his career, turning 10 targets and 92 air yards into seven receiving yards. That's valuable volume, certainly, but I have a hard time believing he'll make good on it.
James Washington had the second-most air yards in Week 1 with 169, a remarkable feat given he ran routes on just 61% of Ben Roethlisberger's dropbacks. His role seems like it could become fairly valuable in the way Martavis Bryant's was for stretches.
Ryan Switzer maintained a low-aDOT role, catching all six of his targets but for just 29 yards, while Vance McDonald was also very active in routes but not on the stat sheet. He caught both of his passes on the game's final drive, including a 21-yarder on the final play of the game with the Patriots' defense playing way off.
Given the state of the rest of the receiving corps, Smith-Schuster still looks primed for heavy volume. When the Pats started to play off in the second half, he immediately got it, and he still finished with a decent 8-6-78 line. Next week, he draws the Seahawks, who just got torched for over 400 yards by Andy Dalton.
James Conner had a healthy role until the game got out of hand, catching all four targets thrown his way. He ran one fewer routes than Jaylen Samuels, though both of Samuels' targets also came on the game's final drive, with the outcome long since decided.
- Signal: Rex Burkhead — solid share of the backfield, specifically high-value touches, JuJu Smith-Schuster — the Steelers need him, and he'll get fed when he's not across from an elite corner
- Noise: Patriots — target shares with Antonio Brown's arrival imminent, Donte Moncrief — 0.7 yards per target (he can't be this bad… can he?)
Semaine 1
Saints 30-Texans 28
- Snap Notes: Ted Ginn – 74%, Tre'Quan Smith – 64%, Alvin Kamara – 76%, Latavius Murray – 27%, Jared Cook – 64%, Will Fuller – 97%, Kenny Stills – 42%, DeAndre Carter – 42%, Duke Johnson – 63%, Carlos Hyde – 37%, Jordan Akins – 70%
- Key Stat: DeAndre Hopkins – 216 air yards (led NFL in Week 1)
Monday night brought us the best game in Week 1, and with it plenty of offensive fireworks. On the New Orleans side, the offense unsurprisingly flowed through Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. If you'll recall, Mark Ingram was suspended for the first four weeks of 2018, and Kamara played a big role. But after Ingram returned, through the Saints' playoff games, Kamara never played a snap share as high as the 76% we saw Monday night, and only eclipsed 70% once. In terms of raw snaps, Kamara averaged 40.5 in 13 games (playoffs included) after Ingram returned to the lineup; last night, he played 50.
Latavius Murray was still involved, to be sure, and showed off his scoring upside in this offense with a 30-yard touchdown run in the third. He also caught passes on back-to-back first quarter plays, but later in the first quarter Drew Brees threw what looked to be an uncharacteristically bad interception to linebacker Whitney Mercilus after Murray took off up field on a broken play. I'm not saying explicitly saying Brees put that pick on Murray, but it's interesting Murray wasn't targeted at all over the final three quarters after that start.
Of course, it also might have just been a case of the game being close and the Saints wanting to keep their elite talent on the field. Regardless, it's a very positive sign for Kamara's upside that he has the potential to play over 75% of the snaps in a given week.
Thomas did Thomas things, posting a 13-10-123 line. Ted Ginn played a hefty 74% snap share, his third highest single-game total since coming over to the Saints in 2017, and caught all seven targets he saw for 101 yards. He's a boom-or-bust option when the Saints have potential shootouts on the schedule.
Tre'Quan Smith also found the end zone, but saw just two targets, while Jared Cook saw just three. The nature of this offense is that while there is a lot of overall production, Kamara and Thomas account for such a large share that Murray, Cook, Ginn and Smith won't post consistent lines. They'll be usable in spots, though.
On the Texans' side, Carlos Hyde was a big story, as he started and looked good running the ball. But this became a perfect encapsulation of why high-value touches matter. For as efficient as Hyde was — he averaged 8.3 yards per carry! — he didn't even hit double-digit Fantasy points. It's possible Hyde could get green zone work, but Duke Johnson was also out there in that area, notably catching a 5-yard pass down to the 2-yard line on a play that began at the 7.
This makes Johnson's workload far and away the more valuable one. The Texans made it a point to get him involved in the passing game, and he caught four of five targets for 33 yards. He also got plenty of work in the running game with nine carries to Hyde's 10, and finished with 13 PPR points. It's fair to say Hyde infringes on his upside somewhat — and that will be especially true if Hyde gets goal-line work — but Duke's Week 1 role was still very solid for Fantasy.
DeAndre Hopkins dominated the receiving volume — his 1.09 WOPR easily led the NFL in Week 1 — while Will Fuller racked up 111 air yards but on just three targets. We'd certainly like to see more short and intermediate volume from Fuller to round out his workload, but he's capable of putting up big Fantasy points on the few deep shots he gets per game.
Kenny Stills wound up with three receptions in his first game with the Texans, but two were on tip passes in the backfield before the memorable one, a 37-yard touchdown that briefly gave the Texans the lead in the final minute. Stills wasn't nearly as involved as his Fantasy total might suggest.
- Signal: Alvin Kamara — workload has increased (Murray wasn't a direct Ingram replacement), Duke Johnson — got involved in the passing game, is the more valuable Fantasy back though in a timeshare
- Noise: Kenny Stills — without the late touchdown, would have had a line of 2 receptions for 0 yards
Semaine 1
Raiders 24-Broncos 16
- Snap Notes: Tyrell Williams – 95%, Ryan Grant – 71%, Hunter Renfrow – 28%, Josh Jacobs – 74%, Jalen Richard – 16%, Darren Waller – 100%, Courtland Sutton – 89%, Emmanuel Sanders – 89%, DaeSean Hamilton – 77%, Phillip Lindsay – 53%, Royce Freeman – 47%, Noah Fant – 81%
- Key Stat: Tyrell Williams – 0.81 WOPR (third highest in Week 1)
After a tumultuous offseason, Oakland came out sharp in Week 1, getting a home win against a division rival. Without Antonio Brown, the passing offense flowed through Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller. WOPR is a percentage of the team's total volume, so it says something about the degree to which these were the top two passing options that Williams had the third highest WOPR in Week 1 behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins, while Waller still had the third highest WOPR among tight ends in Week 1.
In fact, Waller played 100% of the team's snaps, and should be rostered in the same number of leagues. Ryan Grant played substantially more than Hunter Renfrow as is likely the short-term No. 3 option, but Williams and Waller are both solid starts going forward with what should be safe target floors.
Josh Jacobs dominated the game for the Raiders in plus game script throughout, and Jon Gruden called his number 24 times, 23 of which were rush attempts. Jacobs was a hit largely because the offense was so successful — he converted two of his three green zone rush attempts for scores. Only three backs had more green zone attempts in Week 1.
As strong as his workload was, there's minor concern that his heavy touch count featured mostly low-value touches. It's only minor concern because he still racked up a solid four HVT, and Jalen Richard barely played. We don't know what the split will look like in negative scripts, and the Raiders will still find themselves there more often than not, but Week 1 was certainly a position sign.
One of the most interesting Week 1 takeaways came in the latest game. Last season, despite having both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, the Broncos somewhat quietly still utilized Devontae Booker heavily as a third-down back. In games played, Booker averaged 19.8 snaps per game with Lindsay at 30.2 and Freeman at 22.0.
Though the Broncos changed coaching staffs this offseason, they also acquired Theo Riddick, which seemed to indicate they still might use Booker in a passing downs role even after Riddick was injured. Instead, Booker played just one offensive snap in a pass-heavy game script. Lindsay and Freeman also split the work a lot closer to 50/50, making Freeman the bigger winner from the new two-man backfield. Freeman eclipsed his 30 Week 1 snaps just one time last year, a Week 17 game Lindsay missed where Freeman racked up 25 touches — including eight receptions on 10 targets — and over 100 total yards.
As for the wide receivers and tight ends, it mostly went as expected, with Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders leading the charge. Last year, Sutton saw 84 targets at an aDOT of 14.0, but one thing we saw in Week 1 was more intermediate volume. He racked up seven catches and 120 yards on eight targets at an aDOT of 11.9. He still saw plenty of air yards, but the boost in overall targets from the 5.25 per game he averaged last year is a very positive sign. If you're in a shallow league where he's available, he'd be among my favorite waiver adds for this week.
Sanders held up to a full game nicely in his regular season return from his Achilles injury, and caught a garbage time touchdown with 2:18 left to finish with a 7-5-86-1 receiving line. Noah Fant was heavily involved despite a lack of production, and makes for a solid tight end stash, while DaeSean Hamilton looks like a low aDOT option with perhaps not enough volume to be worth rostering outside deeper leagues.
- Signal: Darren Waller — every-down player, Raiders passing game — concentrated to Tyrell Williams and Waller, Broncos — now a two-man RB committee after last year's three-man rotation, Courtland Sutton — expanding role
- Noise: Josh Jacobs — his specific workload of 23 rush attempts will be difficult to match most weeks given game script, though it was a promising game overall
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