[ad_1]
I remember getting into dynasty formats and thinking to myself: "I know football and I dominated the change leagues, so why can not I do the same thing in the dynasty? where to start. Holding the players in consideration of the situation and the age is one thing, but evaluating a future draft choice and its value is another.
What is really a draft dynasty? It's a question that no one really knows how to answer, but what I can tell you is that some homeowners overestimate them completely, while others give them, like they're candy to Halloween. Can you win without making drafts? Of course, but it would make life a lot easier if you knew what you were looking for, right?
When you give up a proven commodity that could leave you a year or two, what should you expect in return? It's only natural to be optimistic with the young recruits who enter the league, but what happens when you remove all emotion and you look at what the story says you really escape from these choices ?
Complete a rough draft in minutes with our free draw simulator >>
Another thing to note, as someone comments on all the time in my Dynasty Market Value Chart, is that when you are trading away or for future draft picks, you do not know if that choice will be the first or the fifth choice, although we can usually look at the lineup to see if a team is rebuilding and competing for the championships, which in turn will give you a less favorable choice. Because of this, I separated the search into sections, each choice / position having a different value.
The research included here goes back as far as I could find in the ADP rookie (draft middle position), which is 2009, giving us 10 years of data from. The sample size is sufficient to provide a solid basis for detecting trends. The ADP data used are the post-NFL versions.
Top of the first round (Top-3 Pick)
Running Backs
In the last 10 years, there have been 30 selections from the top three, including 19 as halfbacks. This gives us a solid sample size to sort out, since these 19 halves played 941 games combined. It is important to note that the backsides do not often take a long time to develop, which means that the most recent recruits will have no negative impact on the results, unlike the wide receivers, because they will need a little more time to catch up with the speed of the NFL. .
| players | RB1% | RB2% | RB3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| Top-3 RB Pick | 27.6% | 51.4% | 69.3% | 10.3% | 31.0% |
Of the 941 games played among the top three semi-finalists selected, 260 scored RB1 performances, while 484 scored RB2 numbers or more. It's absurdly high over a 10-year period, although it's important to note that we've had major defeats in the last four years. Nevertheless, there will still be a lot to come and this includes 10 years, which includes some busts. If you have never read the Boom, Bust and Everything In Between series, "boom" represents more than 25 PPR points, while "bust" represents games with less than 8.0 PPR points. So, what do these numbers compare to during a career?
| players | RB1% | RB2% | RB3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| Top-3 RB Pick | 27.6% | 51.4% | 69.3% | 10.3% | 31.0% |
| Eddie Lacy | 30.0% | 51.7% | 66.7% | 11.7% | 33.3% |
| Reggie Bush | 30.0% | 50.8% | 76.2% | 9.2% | 28.5% |
I wanted to include two players in this example because the numbers were pretty clear in the middle of Eddie Lacy and Reggie Bush. Although you are fortunate to have a long career with this number of Bush, many were not happy with the size of Lacy's 60 samples, but he was among the top six in the race for the race on two different occasions. In the end, the results are not bad at all. Therefore, if you need a semifinal, the first three choices usually give solid results. At the present time, there is no half-offensive from the top three of the ADP, but that could change once we have discovered the landing points after the NFL draft.
Wide receivers
The size of the sample with wide receivers is a little smaller, since only 10 of them were selected among the top three choices since the 2009 project. The sample size is also a bit smaller, because they combined for a sample of 694 games, an average of 69.4 games per player, which is much higher than the number of late games of 49.5 games per player. The community of the dynasty knows that large receptors have a much longer life span than the halves.
| players | WR1% | WR2% | WR3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 3 first choices | 25.6% | 42.2% | 54.5% | 13.8% | 32.3% |
The top receivers selected from the top three among the rookie ladies have posted ridiculous numbers over the years, with 293 games out of 694 producing WR2 numbers or higher. The numbers are not so far from what the setbacks have done at the top of the hierarchy (RB1 and WR1 performance) and actually show 3.5% more and more performance (more than 25 PPR points). What are the good numbers of broad receivers during these ten years among the top three choices? Pretty good.
| players | WR1% | WR2% | WR3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 3 first choices | 25.6% | 42.2% | 54.5% | 13.8% | 32.3% |
| Roddy White | 22.6% | 42.7% | 54.9% | 12.2% | 30.5% |
While Roddy White was playing at his peak, he was practically a lock to be selected as a receiver among the top 10 receivers each year. The only problem with these numbers is that there have been a few players of all the times selected in this range and that you include them in the 10 players, the sample size is not very big. But again, there will be generational talents in the years to come, so we can not just dismiss them. Players selected in this category this year include N'Keal Harry, D.K. Metcalf and Hakeem Butler.
Other half of the first round (choice 4-6)
Running Backs
This is an area of the project where you are negotiating with a team that should miss the playoffs, although it does not necessarily end up at the bottom of the rankings. This is a good bargaining tactic because you have to almost assume the worst scenario with the rough choices you receive. And if they rank among the last three, you've just increased your historical production, although it's not as important as you thought.
| players | RB1% | RB2% | RB3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 4-6 RB Pick | 27.2% | 47.6% | 63.4% | 9.3% | 35.9% |
| Mark Ingram | 28.3% | 48.1% | 71.7% | 7.5% | 30.2% |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 28.3% | 47.8% | 67.4% | 5.4% | 37.0% |
In this group of halfbacks, 13 of them competed for a total of 599 games. This is an average of 46.1 games per player, so again, which is not far from the average of the three starting selections. The difference is also negligible in terms of performance, since the percentage of RB1 remains almost identical, but the numbers of RB2 and RB3 only decrease by a few percentage points. Judging by this, if you need half a quarter, the difference between a choice among the top three and a choice among the top six, historically, is not so different. Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery are among the finalists currently selected in this rookie selection.
Wide receivers
Now that we know that the half-pointers do not fall much from the first three to the first six, what about wide receivers? Just like in the defensemen section, when you are trading for a pick in this area of the repechage, you are negotiating with a team that you presume it will miss the playoffs, even though they may not finish in the bottom of the playoffs. ranking.
| players | WR1% | WR2% | WR3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 4-6 WR Pick | 17.2% | 34.2% | 48.0% | 7.1% | 34.5% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 17.7% | 33.1% | 43.5% | 8.9% | 41.1% |
The release for wide receivers drawn in the range 4-6 is much larger than the release back. There was a drop of eight percent in WR1 and WR2 just after falling a few places in the project. You may think that Emmanuel Sanders has been a solid player in recent years, but he has not been a fantastic asset for a very long time in Pittsburgh. This is based on a sample size of 12 wide receivers that played a total of 777 games, a very high level of 64.8 games per player. When writing a wide receiver in this range, you basically have one in 50 chance of finding one that will become a regular producer in your fantasy team.
The back half of the first round (picks 7 to 12)
Running Backs
Instead of dividing this section into three choices, we will make the six choices combined. Why? As you know, fantastic playoffs are impossible to predict and anything can happen. It is in this area that, when negotiating draft picks, the other team is expected to play in the playoffs. If their team suffers a major injury after the transaction, you could be in the top six, but you're not counting on it. When negotiating with a competing team, what should you expect to find at the half-defending position in the second half of the first round?
| players | RB1% | RB2% | RB3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 7-12 RB Pick | 16.4% | 35.2% | 53.7% | 7.1% | 45.5% |
| Isaiah Crowell | 13.2% | 34.2% | 53.9% | 2.6% | 40.8% |
| Rashad Jennings | 15.2% | 33.7% | 53.3% | 3.3% | 44.6% |
Not exactly what you expected, is not it? If you are a needy RB team and you think that trading for a first round pick with a competitor is a good idea, you should probably reconsider your decision. There were 22 demos selected in this sample, with an average career of 38.5 matches played, so even your estimated career time is shorter. Find the owner of the nearest Isaiah Crowell dynasty if he is satisfied with his team. Then ask this owner if they would have traded it for a choice of 7-12 years knowing what they know now. I know I would have said yes quickly enough. Even those who have been playing for a long time, do you remember how frustrating it was to deal with Rashad Jennings, who was playing time-and-time with Darren McFadden? If you need a semi-offensive and you play in the back of the first round, you probably will not find any fantastic gold, although there are exceptions to each rule. Darrell Henderson, Miles Sanders and Damien Harris are among the finalists currently selected in this rookie selection.
Wide receivers
Last year, at one time, everyone was chosen from the top six and left big receivers such as Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore behind in the first round. Let me tell you that it was fun for teams that were already good. It was probably a mistake on their part, but historically, what was the performance of broad recipients in the second half of the first round?
| players | WR1% | WR2% | WR3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 7-12 WR Pick | 14.4% | 29.4% | 41.6% | 6.6% | 42.9% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 13.1% | 27.9% | 42.6% | 4.9% | 42.6% |
Similar to the semifinalist section behind the first round, the results are probably not what you would have expected, although Kelvin Benjamin has been useful for a few years. In this sample, 29 wide receivers were selected. The size of the sample is therefore as large as we will see in this article. These players put up 1,665 games, an average of 57.4 games per player. There are certainly good receivers in this area of rookie ladies, but again, there is a better chance that you will find a misfire than a stud that will be in your lineup every week. Kelvin Harmon is the only recipient to be selected in this rookie draft line.
Second half of second round (picks 13-18)
Running Backs
I decided to group the top six choices during this round because the results of 13-15 to 16 and 16 to 18-18 have not changed much. So we chose a larger sample in the first half of the second. -round. Now we go back to the non-playoff teams, who will probably try to sell you that choice as "essentially" a first-round pick, but here is the flipper … that's not the case. We began to see a dip in the second half of the first round, but the situation only worsened here.
| players | RB1% | RB2% | RB3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 13-18 RB Pick | 13.6% | 32.6% | 51.6% | 4.8% | 46.5% |
| Andre Ellington | 13.3% | 33.3% | 56.7% | 1.7% | 43.3% |
There was about a year and a half where Ellington was a bit of a fantastic asset, but the rest was unclear. This is the average feeling you will get with a second-round offensive midfielder. The average number of games played in this level is only 34.9 per player, a little over two seasons. That's not to say that you can not find rock-solid players in this lineup, as David Johnson finished 17th overall in 2015, but that's not very likely. The finalists chosen in this lineup in 2019 are Rodney Anderson and Devin Singletary.
Wide receivers
I will not lie; chances are not good to find a wide receiver that can consistently contribute to your team of the dynasty in this range. Twenty-two big receivers were selected in this lineup and played together for 856 games, making it the largest sample size among the major recipients of this study. So, whatever the talent of the scout, know that the odds are against you.
| players | WR1% | WR2% | WR3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 13-18 WR Pick | 8.6% | 18.6% | 31.1% | 3.8% | 54.1% |
| Danny Amendola | 8.1% | 17.9% | 31.7% | 0.8% | 56.1% |
You are not negotiating for a high second round pick and you're waiting for Danny Amendola to return, right? I mean, he played a lot of games, but as you can see he was not very helpful. Large recipients in this category often disappear much earlier in their careers, as their career averages only 44.9 games. When you are trading for a second round pick, you'd better let your league sleep on someone who should have left in the first round. Broad receivers being drafted in this lineup in 2019 include Samuel Deebo, Marquise Brown, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Parris Campbell.
Second half of second round (picks 19-24)
Run
This is the pre-release domain in which you select guys who, you know, will be backups of the team to which they are sent. Players in front of them may be incompetent or hurt themselves, which gives them a chance, but they are unlikely to have an impact on your fantastic team without special circumstances. Of the 20 semi-finalists selected in this category, they recorded an average of 39.0 games during their career, so more than the half-way ones in the 13-18 range, but let's be clear, they did not help your fantasy team to judge by their numbers.
| players | RB1% | RB2% | RB3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 19-24 RB Pick | 8.9% | 21.8% | 38.3% | 2.3% | 60.8% |
| Elijah McGuire | 8.7% | 21.7% | 34.8% | 0.0% | 65.2% |
It's crazy as the numbers with Elijah McGuire are similar to those in this range, right? Of the 779 games played by the team, the halfbacks at the end of the second round gave us only 69 RB1 performances in the last 10 years. Do not make the mistake of thinking that one of your favorite demis is being written at the end of the second round, as it is not very likely that he has a chance to succeed. Trayveon Williams, Justice Hill and Benny Snell are among the finalists in this category in 2019.
Wide receivers
Due to the presence of a few outstanding players, wide receivers in this category actually outperformed those selected at the top of the second round. This proves that if you want a wide receiver, trading for a second round pick might not be a bad option, no matter where the turn is. What can also play is that we are back in the area where the playoff teams are writing, which means they are creating the PDA in this range. If they're consistently winning, it's likely they're just better talent evaluators than those who consistently get top picks in the repechage.
| players | WR1% | WR2% | WR3% | Boom% | Chest% |
| 19-24 WR Pick | 10.3% | 21.0% | 32.4% | 4.2% | 53.5% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 11.0% | 22.0% | 38.0% | 1.0% | 50.0% |
Although Mohamed Sanu was / was better than Amendola, it's not like he's been a fantastic stallion for years. He's been solid since coming to the Falcons, but knowing that he's delivered WR2 numbers or better only 22% of the time highlights the odds of being a big hit in that range. As in any rookie territory, there are exceptions and for some reason, the 22nd choice has treated wide receivers well. Chris Godwin, Martavis Bryant, Josh Gordon and Eric Decker were all selected here and had what I would call bright careers for a late pick in the second round. The wide receivers taken in this lineup in 2019 are Andy Isabella (currently 22nd overall) and Emanuel Hall.
To take away
As we talked about throughout the analysis, there are outliers of productivity here and there. But in the end, these are the historical results. Once again, every year, someone will tell you that it's a generational class and that "it's different" but the story does not lie. This does not mean that you can not find value outside the top 10 choices, but it does mean that the dynasty's project choices are often overvalued. Judging by some of the questions I get, a first round choice is worth a lot more for homeowners than someone like Isaiah Crowell or Kelvin Benjamin. If you manage to get proven reproducers with many years of production in exchange for a first one at the end or end, I suggest you do it before reading this article.
If you would like to know what my value is for this year's Preliminary Class, we are releasing at least one screening report per day on the most promising prospects. You can find them all here.
Subscribe: iTunes | Google game | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer of FantasyPros. For more Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
[ad_2]
Source link