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Daniel Suarez is on the provisional pole of the Quaker State 400 Saturday at Kentucky Speedway (7:30 pm Eastern Time, NBCSN / NBC Sports app, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR radio). Does the Stewart-Haas Racing driver deserve a place on your Fantasy Live tab? We dissected the numbers to offer you a composition worthy of your consideration for Fantasy Live. We've also included variants to connect to your lineup if any of the cars planned for your lineup fail the inspection after qualifying / pre-race on Saturday.
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The composition of RJ Kraft Fantasy Live for the day of racing in Kentucky:
1. Brad Keselowski
2. Kurt Busch
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Kyle Busch
5. William Byron
Garage: Aric Almirola
Alternates to exchange if any of the above elements fail the inspection after qualifying / before the race (in the order and in a very specific case): Chase Elliott, Joey Logano (if one of the 18-18-19 stands at the back), Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Daniel Suarez.
RELATED: Odds for Kentucky | Averages of 10 turns | Weekend overview
Analysis: I stay with the bulk of my original range being inspected. We still have eight races left, so basically the time is running out and there is no need to stop – unless you have two uses to drive (like the one leading the # 4 – see below) ). I am well placed on uses with Keselowski, Truex and Kyle Busch. Keselowski has won here three times and looks pretty strong this weekend. Busch has two wins here and is usually in the top five. Truex has won the last two races in Kentucky and his team leader, Cole Pearn, has the gift of delivering races that go from day to night. Byron has been a good performer lately with a talent for stage points, so I would like to run with the burning hand.
I had planned to drive the Hendrick wave strong enough for this race, but averages and starting points were disappointing for me. So instead of Elliott and Alex Bowman, I'm leaving with Almirola and Kurt Busch. Almirola has been a fantastic fantasy for two months, but I love the starting point and will bet on her points. If he does not succeed in catching points of the scene, he will remain in the garage, with the exception of any incident involving the rest of my training. Busch gets my other place because he's been super consistent on 1.5 mile runs all year and I like the averages he's had (h / t @ SteveLetarte). I have a low level of use with the 2004 champion, but outside Bristol, I do not have a track really marked for him.
I have some questions about whether or not to play Suarez. I know the figures from the final practice and provisional pole would tell you that you're playing it absolutely, but the work he's doing this season on the 1.5-km runs is extremely suspicious. He has scored more than 25 points twice (Atlanta and Texas) and more than 30 points once (Texas). Over the last three 1.5m, he has averaged 18.3 points per race. If it was earlier in the season, I would be better able to take the leap, but with eight races to go, I'm going with drivers, I'm more confident in knowing that there is not much to remember at this stage. If enough members of my training saw their qualifying time fail because of a failed inspection and Suarez's number 41 was over, I would consider the game.
Kevin Harvick is an example where I hold back. Although he has the most points this season on the 1.5 mile runs, I still have two uses and I think Michigan and Darlington are better ways to use the 2014 champion. That said, if I had at least three uses available, it would be in my range. We've already talked about stacking your bonus choices with a driver whose use is limited, and that's what I'm going to do with Harvick. I have Stewart-Haas driver who wins stage 2 and the race, while Keselowski passes stage 1.
Each week in this space, we will also highlight two elements of the Accessories Challenge for players.
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1. O / U 18.5 lead changes. The past results of Kentucky would tell you to take the under. The race / rule package of 2019 would be the opposite. Each 1.5 mile race this season has exceeded this mark. The race in Kansas two months ago in the spotlight (a bit like Kentucky in terms of time, identical length) has experienced 23 head changes. I think these two statistics are more accurate barometers, so I'm going to take OVER.
2. At least five drivers will score 42 points or more. This one is a little more complicated than I thought. At first, I thought so, but some studies on the numbers challenged him. This only happened once this year on a 1.5-mile track and it was the Coca-Cola 600, which had an extra step (and more opportunity to earn extra points), which is a little particular. The 2019 data show that it's usually a brand of three to four drivers affected, not five. With that in mind, I go NO on this one.
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