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Trump's sanctions on Venezuela have managed to cut the country's oil output by 100,000 barrels a day from January to February, enough to drive up oil prices for 2019, the federal government said on Wednesday.
The Energy Information Administration, which released the forecast, closely monitors the effects of the administration's sanctions on oil prices, as well as cuts in OPEC production. Venezuela's production went from 1.2 million barrels a day to 1.1 million barrels a day in the first month of sanctions.
The EIA has increased its crude oil forecast for 2019 by nearly $ 2 a barrel, to reach $ 63 a barrel.
Since Venezuela is a member of OPEC, the EIA analyzes how its losses resulting from the sanctions will be taken into account in the decision of the international oil cartel to reduce its overall production in order to reduce the cost of oil. balance the global oil market.
OPEC began implementing production cuts last month to counter an overabundance of supply that resulted in lower prices. Reductions in production are supposed to drive up prices by exhausting excess supply, which works. The price of a barrel of Brent rose from $ 5 to $ 64 a barrel from January to February.
EIA remains optimistic, however, that price increases will be gradual because of the larger crude oil reserves present in many countries.
"Despite the expectations of a tighter market compared to last month 's forecast, EIA is still waiting for an increase in global stocks of liquid fuels and an excess capacity of US $ 10 billion. OPEC to limit the pressure on prices on the rise, "said analysis Week in Petroleum agency.
Nevertheless, the EIA is following dramatic reductions in oil production in Saudi Arabia, levels never seen for nearly two years. The reduction in production has forced EIA to reduce its forecasts of reducing OPEC production.
Saudi Arabia has announced that it will decide, along with other OPEC members and Russia, to continue reductions for the rest of the year based on market balances. in June. On the basis of these statements, the agency assumes that crude oil production cuts jointly undertaken by OPEC and Russia will remain in effect until the end of 2019.
Meanwhile, gasoline prices in the United States continued to rise compared to the previous week. The average price of regular gasoline rose nearly 5 cents last week to reach $ 2.47 a gallon on March 11, the agency said.
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