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Fewer farms, but growing sales. A loss of cultivated land, but a rising property value. Less milk and pork products, but more eggs and organic vegetables.
A new snapshot of agriculture in Lancaster County provides evidence of a 1.5 billion dollar transition industry.
Poultry has dethroned dairy products and the growing gap could already reshape the landscape, as in small farms with more greenhouses.
The data are in a five-year census just released by the United States Department of Agriculture.
Farmers and policymakers rely on numbers to make informed decisions ranging from investments to legislation. And these decisions will affect both the amount of your grocery bill and the quality of the food on your plate.
The Census of Agriculture suggests some weaknesses in the reputation of agriculture in the Lancaster County identity. But industry watchers are not worried. At least not yet. They say the farmers here know how to get caught.
"Lancaster County farmers are diversifying," said Mauricio Rosale, dairy expert at the Penn State Extension office in Lancaster. "They create more businesses to generate more revenue. They are resilient and these efforts are paying off. "
Indeed, there is no reason yet to be dark and dark.
The census shows that net cash farm income increased 33% to $ 478.7 million. And with fewer farms, the average income per farm was $ 93,709, an increase of 47.4% over five years.
Nevertheless, there is cause for concern. Perhaps the takeaway is more telling than slowing down sales of farm products. Total farm sales reached $ 1.5 billion for the first time in 2017, the census year.
But growth compared to the previous 2012 census was only 2.2%, or less than half a percent per year. As sales have not kept pace with inflation, farmers are probably looking forward to the good days of 2007 to 2012, when, despite the Great Recession, sales rose 38%, or 7.6% per year.
In addition, census data collection was completed in February 2018 before entering a key data point: 2018 was the wettest ever recorded. The sodden fields delayed planting and harvesting and yields suffered.
Fewer farms
Much of Lancaster County is a patchwork of farmland.
So, are farmers abandoning? The census suggests that some are.
It notes a drop of 9.7% in the number of farms here, a fall of 549 farms – more than 100 a year – for a total of 5,108.
He also found less farmland. According to the census, acreage here has decreased by 45,532 acres to a total of 393,949 acres, down 10.4% in just five years.
Local experts, however, dispute these figures.
Jeff Swinehart of Lancaster Farmland Trust said that a consolidation was underway, but he doubted that the county has lost nearly 500 farms since the last census of agriculture.
Swinehart also said his organization was monitoring farmland losses of about 1,200 acres a year, well below the 9,100 acres recorded by the census.
Scott Standish of the Lancaster County Planning Commission, who uses a sophisticated land use monitoring tool, also criticized the data on the areas surveyed.
"It makes no sense to me," Standish said. His agency's study found that about 13,200 acres have been developed over the past 15 years, including about 6,000 acres within the growth limits where development is deemed appropriate.
Dairy woes
Lisa Graybeal feeds a calf at her Fulton Township Farm in this 2015 photo.
The decline in agriculture has been driven by the difficult times for dairy products.
Faced with declining milk prices, dairy farmers are also facing the same problems as others: tighter regulation, rising property taxes, labor shortages and shortages. higher prices for machinery and land.
As a result, there are fewer farms with cows – 1,613, down 14.1% since 2012. And also fewer cows in Lancaster County – 106,429, down 4%.
In addition, the value of milk sold has decreased by 2.6% since 2012 to reach $ 414.3 million.
"Dairy production is in trouble," said Lisa Graybeal, a third-generation farmer in Fulton Township, with 740 cows. "The cost of doing business is so much higher than it was 20 years ago, but our compensation can not keep up with those prices."
And with the decline in corn and soybean prices (sales are down 11.4%), attention to crops is not the best option for a farmer selling his cows, said Mark O'Neill of Pennsylvania Farm Office.
Dairy farmers have to adapt or perish. Graybeal and his brother, Byron, explored the addition of beef cattle. They are also watching with interest the opening of the industrial hemp market.
Bill O'Brien, director of loans at Bank of Bird-in-Hand, said diversification would be needed as more greenhouses would produce more expensive products for niche markets.
William Kitsch, Vice President and Head of Agricultural Lending at Ephrata National Bank, said Lancaster County family farms are well-positioned to respond to consumers' growing taste for fresh, local foods.
"As our farms went down, our sales went up," he said. "I think it really speaks to the ingenuity of the Lancaster County farmer."
Poultry shines
A poultry farm near Lititz in 2016.
The burgeoning poultry industry is a positive element in the data.
Poultry and egg sales have increased 23.8% to $ 580.6 million since 2012. Lancaster County sold 55.6 million broilers in 2017, up 3, 8%.
"The tastes and preferences are pushing that a bit," said Gregory Martin, a poultry expert at Penn State Extension's Lancaster office. He highlighted the popularity of low carb diets, low calorie and high protein eggs.
Meanwhile, consumers are turning to chicken and turkey to replace red meat, he said.
However, any farmer in transition to poultry faces high initial costs for housing and machinery for poultry. Martin said that finances would not work for everyone.
The problems in Lancaster County are similar to the problems faced by farmers in the country. Agriculture has never been for the faint of heart.
"Agriculture existed before," said George Cook, a Lancaster lawyer specializing in agriculture issues. "The early 1980s was another difficult time, but farmers are resilient people and the work ethic is strong in our county."
And Lancaster County's proximity to the big northeastern cities ensures it will continue to be an essential breadbasket for tens of millions of people, "said O'Neill of the Farm Bureau.
"Agriculture is definitely in a transition phase," said O'Neill, "and all farmers are looking for multiple ways to make money to keep farming going."
Tom Baldrige of Lancaster's chamber said the census change message means that the vitality of agriculture can not be taken for granted.
"Fortunately for us, the only constant is the hard-working peasant families, who find ways to innovate and adapt to meet the demands of the market and to keep farming a part of the game. important to our county's economy, "he said.
Editor Heather Stauffer contributed to this report.
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