Fewer hospitalizations for Covid-19, more vaccinations show that the United States could cross the course of the pandemic

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“With virtually all of my colleagues, we are smiling quietly,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, told CNN Thursday. “We haven’t put up a ‘mission accomplished’ banner yet, but of course we think things are improving. New cases and hospitalizations are definitely down, and here and there we’re actually seeing a reduction in deaths. . “

Yet, he added, “It is evident that this leveling off and lowering – although you can see it across the country – is happening more strongly in some parts of the country, the better vaccinated parts, than in the other parts of the country. other parts of the country, the less vaccinated parts, including my own state of Tennessee. So while we are clearly making progress, I think we are still in two Americas. “

What could mark the “bookends” of the pandemic

Signs that US control over Covid-19 could improve can also be seen in some data regarding Covid-19 vaccinations.

When can your child be vaccinated? This is what the deployment of Covid-19 vaccines could look like for 5 to 11 year olds
Many Americans still oppose vaccine requirements and mask warrants, but last month President Joe Biden imposed tough new vaccine rules that affect up to 100 million Americans. Vaccination mandates appear to have had an impact – currently 65.7% of people eligible to receive Covid-19 vaccines are fully vaccinated.

But despite the efforts of the federal government and public health officials, there has been a sharp drop in the average number of people starting the immunization process. Data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows a drop of more than 40% in the number of people who received their first Covid-19 vaccines in the past two months. The current average seven-day immunization rate is 276,539 people starting immunizations each day – a 24.5% drop from this measure a month ago and a 42.5% drop in that number since August 7.

“Today, I’m calling on more employers to act. My message is to demand that your employees get vaccinated,” Biden said in remarks in Illinois Thursday.

“With vaccinations, we will finally beat this pandemic,” he said. “Without them, we face endless months of chaos in our hospitals, damage to our economy and anxiety in our schools, empty restaurants and far fewer businesses.”

Additionally, vaccine makers Pfizer and BioNTech announced Thursday that they have officially submitted a request to the United States Food and Drug Administration to authorize their Covid-19 vaccine at a lower dose for children ages 5 to 11 years old.

“Again, I think we’ll probably see two Americas: Parents in some states take their children to the pediatrician for vaccinations more frequently than others,” Schaffner said. “But in general, I think the Food and Drug Administration’s approval for the Pfizer vaccine for ages 5 to 11 will play a role in accelerating the downward slope of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.”

He added that “the mandates will continue to advance vaccinations.”

It may take
Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner and current Pfizer board member, said on Wednesday he believed a Covid-19 vaccine for children and Merck’s antiviral pill will end the pandemic phase of Covid-19.
“For businesses right now, I think they want to see the green light, and I don’t think we’re going to see the green light until this Delta wave winds its way across the country – it’s is probably around Thanksgiving. So if I was trying to figure out when this Delta wave crossed the country, it’s probably Thanksgiving, ”Gottlieb said in an interview with CNBC’s“ Squawk on the Street ”from the Active Investor Summit. 13D Monitor liabilities.

“Then we will hopefully have a vaccine available for children, and at some point before the end of the year we will probably have the oral drug available from Merck if things go right and who does. under favorable review, ”said Gottlieb.

“I think those two things are going to be kind of the bookend on what kind of pandemic phase this virus is,” he said. “And we’re going to go into the most endemic phase, when it becomes a pervasive risk but doesn’t represent the extreme risk it poses right now.”

Far from over, but wave of Delta coronavirus could be the last major wave of infection, former FDA commissioner says
Dr Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, told CNN’s Ana Cabrera on Thursday that he “certainly” hopes Gottlieb was right as the nation nears the end of the pandemic phase.

“But we have difficult realities, especially in this part of the country,” Hotez said.

“Only 33% of 12-17 year olds have received the Covid-19 vaccine here in the South, in most southern states, compared to 80% in the Northeast. So, again, you have this geographic divide. where parents hold back from vaccinating their teens, ”Hotez said. “I have to believe that they will probably hold back from vaccinating the younger ones as well.”

“We absolutely do not want to let our guard down yet”

Overall, most experts agree that it’s not clear when the pandemic will end, but it will likely happen when transmission of the coronavirus moves from pandemic to endemic levels – when the virus takes hold permanently. but will circulate at lower levels.

Covid-19 booster injections have exceeded the US rate of new vaccinations. And millions still unvaccinated could trigger 'future waves', expert warns

“This virus is not just going to go away,” Schaffner said.

Some doctors, including Schaffner, remain hopeful the country is approaching this transition from pandemic to endemic – but say it’s not quite there yet.

“I think we’ll find out when we see it,” Schaffner said. “Once there is a very low rate, less than 5% of positive tests on a daily basis, and once the rate of new cases is very low and sustained over a period of time, I think we will, to this stage, know it. “

Schaffner said that is when he and his colleague will smile “broadly” instead of calmly smiling.

Nationally, the weekly positivity rate for Covid-19 tests in the United States has fallen from nearly 10% in early September to around 6% in early October. But on Sunday, test positivity remains as high as nearly 20% in some states, including Idaho, Montana and South Dakota.
Coronavirus positivity rate: what the term means
“I think it’s an interesting idea, but I would like to supplement the picture with what it really means – 5% forever? Five percent that we hope to continue to drop with a serious push no matter what we do. called pandemic or endemic? If we go to the 5% level, does it have to be in every county, or is it a generality for the whole country? ” Art Caplan, professor of bioethics at NYU Langone Health in New York City, said in response to Schaffner’s comments. Caplan added that test positivity rates globally should also be taken into account.

“I’m still nervous to treat Covid like an American phenomenon,” Caplan told CNN on Thursday. “It’s an international phenomenon. Travel is increasing. The possibility of new strains reproducing is great.”

For now, “it is too early” to say that the United States is reaching this transition point from pandemic to endemic, Caplan said.

“I will make these predictions – not this year, not this winter, not until next year that we will talk about it in a serious way,” he added.

“We’re about to go back indoors. We know this disease took off in the winter when people mingled and congregated more indoors in closer neighborhoods in many parts of the United States. so am not ready to say that we are shifting our level of disease or incidence of disease or severity of disease. In fact, I fear this message will undermine efforts to push vaccination at this time, ” Caplan said, “We definitely don’t want to let our guard down yet.”

So a drop in Covid-19 hospitalizations over the past month is “good news,” but the United States could see a spike in cases again this winter, especially during the holidays, Jennifer Nuzzo, senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Safety, told CNN Thursday.

“I think we are making significant progress in terms of scaling up vaccinations, but the point is that there are still dangerous gaps in immunity across the country and while that is the case there are still routes by which the virus spreads, ”Nuzzo said.

“I would like to think the worst is behind us, considering all that we have already endured in terms of the high number of cases, but also the increasing progress in increasing the vaccination. So, I don’t think that ‘An increase in cases in winter will be as bad as last year’s winter surge, but nothing is built into the decline that means momentum will be sustained, “she said.

“What we see is really up to us.”

CNN’s Virginia Langmaid and Naomi Thomas contributed to this report.

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