Final forecast for the 2019 Oscars (91st ceremony)

We arrived at that time earlier than usual, but such a year warrants it. The Oscars take place this Sunday and this is the most open year in recent history, perhaps the history of awards. For the first time, all major guilds turned to different films, an unprecedented result for the rewards season landscape.

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) went with the movie "Peter Farrelly"Green paper"While the Directors Guild of America (DGA) chose Alfonso Cuarón for"Roma. "Screen Actors Guild (SAG) chosen"Black Panther"For their first prize for Cast Ensemble while American film editors (ACE Eddies) honor"Bohemian Rhapsody"(John Ottman) and"The favourite"(Yorgos Mavropsaridis), while this group shares its prices between drama and comedy. And finally, last weekend, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) swung the scales in an even more unknown direction with "Can you ever forgive me?"(Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty) highlighting their congratulations in the adapted screenplay and the Oscar nomination no less"Eigth year"(Bo Burnham) winning the original script award, making him the youngest winner in guild history (since 1984).

With all this to digest, the designers of costumes will weigh Tuesday evening, at 20:30, just hours before the closure of the final vote for membership in AMPAS. "The Favorite" seems to repeat his victory at BAFTA but at this point, who knows what will happen next. Trying to filter the noise of an unpredictable race while remaining focused on the Academy's decision to award rewards during commercial breaks and then return to its decision, it is almost impossible to know where all this will end. Does a lousy public relations year affect the winning results? At first glance, you might say that's not the case, but with such a focus on filmmakers, editors, and makeup and hairstyling staff who fought against power, do voters thought more about their decisions? Addressing more than four dozen voters this year and getting highs during their polls, some have referred to the fiasco.

We enter the final prediction trajectory. As the owner and operator of one of the world's largest entertainment and forecasting sites, you tend to take pride in your "predicted achievements". Last year, I had predicted 21 out of 24 categories, a career high, when nominated for two of the last four years, I correctly named 19 of the 20 acting appointments, even with " WTF "like Tom Hardy (" The Revenant ") and Ruth Negga (" Loving "). This year, and you can try to try to feel better about impending bad performance, wherever you land, there is no real way to predict what Sunday night will bring.

It's starting to remind me of the 2013 Emmy Awards. For those who do not watch television as much as the cinematic landscape, if you want to see unpredictable races unfold before your eyes, spend a few months covering hundreds of shows and shows. network performances, tell voters what they like and see where. all this lands at the biggest party on television. In 2013, "normal" things took place while "Breaking Bad" was preparing to say goodbye to Drama Series, a winning series from before last season, while "Modern Family" won another trophy for Comedy Series. As the night unfolded, the world watched Merritt Wever win for "Nurse Jackie", Jeff Daniels ("The Newsroom") and Bobby Cannavale ("Boardwalk Empire") win an expected victory from Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul, and Laura Linney ("The Big C") passes Elisabeth Moss and Helen Mirren Hell, even these Emmys have seen Regina King (prefiguring?) Win an award for "Seven Seconds", a show that had not been so universally acclaimed as his performance.

This is presented as a framework for what the Oscars might look like going forward. As the Academy expands its workforce, diversifying and integrating new and innovative voices into the industry, the main guilds remain for the most part identical to the "old academy". If these new members had not been invited in the last three years, what would the candidates have looked like this year? Emily Blunt would have fought for the actress secondary to "A silent place, "A performance in which she won the SAG award, making her just the second person to win the award without receiving an Oscar nomination?

With unexpected / shocking victories such as "Spotlight" on "The Revenant", "Moonlight" on "The Land" and "The Shape of Water" on "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri," the Academy left hear how much a day. I do not think we planned or expected it to be so early. That said, it might also mean absolutely nothing. In the past, when you watched the ceremony watching rewards like film editing or screenplay, you could get a pretty good idea of ​​how the categories of directors and images would go. The record of this season's awards will be fascinating because, as long as the big envelope is not open on stage, and that one of the eight films is read, we will not know what the season has meant. Are we going to the guilds, which means less and less, which is equivalent to fewer and fewer stalled statistics?

Every better image that could win will take on the story:

  • "Black Panther" – first film from the "Grand Hotel" to win without playing, making or writing nominations
  • "BlacKkKlansman" – first film since "Out of Africa" ​​to win without any major guild.
  • "Bohemian Rhapsody" – first film since "Argo" to win without the director's nomination, and first since "Titanic" to win without nomination to the screenplay.
  • "The Favorite" – first film since "Driving Miss Daisy" to win without appointment to the DGA.
  • "Green Book" – the first film of history to win without the nominations of director AND SAG Together.
  • "Roma" – first winner of streaming and foreign services, the first to win without the nomination of Globe / SAG Ensemble and the first since "Birdman" to win without nomination to the editing.
  • "A star is born" – assuming she lost all her outstanding races with the exception of Picture, this would be the first since Rebecca did in 1941. First film from the "Grand Hotel" to win without a director or editor names.
  • "Vice" – the second film in history (after "The Shape of Water" last year) to win without the mention SAG Ensemble.

So what are all the current predictions pointing to? Here is the story I "predict":

  • Fox Searchlight will increase its number of Best Film Awards to five, becoming the most award-winning independent studio in history. All pictures Columbia, now Sony Pictures (12), Paramount Pictures (11), Metro-Godwyn-Mayer (9), Warner Bros. (9), 20th Century Fox (8) and Universal Pictures (8) have more. Only Paramount and Warner Bros. will have a better percentage of nomination to win. Paramount at 55% and Warner Bros. at 36%. Fox Searchlight will have 29%.
  • "The favourite"Should win the award for best film, the first film since" Driving Miss Daisy ", without nomination to the DGA, the first film since" The Shape of Water "without nomination to SAG Ensemble and without major victory of the PGA, the DGA, WGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes and SAG. Overall, he is expected to win five of his ten nominations, the highest number of wins won by a winner of the best film since "The Artist" in 2011.
  • Alfonso Cuarón will be the first director to win a film in a foreign language (no, we do not count "the artist").
  • Rami Malek will be the first ever Egyptian winner. The first male interim winner of Africa. If Bradley Cooper wins, he will be behind Adrien Brody ("The Pianist"), Denzel Washington ("Training Day") and Russell Crowe ("Gladiator").
  • Glenn Close will become the third oldest winner of the best actress of all time for "The Wife", at a tender of 71. If she loses, she retains her title of the most nominated actress not to win an Academy Award. If she wins, Amy Adams, Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter will be tied for the new number 1.
  • Mahershala Ali will become the second person of color to win several Oscars behind Denzel Washington for "Green Paper". If he loses, he will be the second person in total to lose the Oscar after winning the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG awards. Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Spirit") was the first.
  • Rachel Weisz will become the third actress to win two Academy Awards for Best Actress in a Supporting Role after Shelley Winters ("Anne Frank's Diary" and "A Spot of Blue") and Dianne Weist ("Hannah and Her Sisters" and " Bullets over Broadway "). She will be the only one to do it in 2 unique nominations and wins.
  • The award-winning "BlacKkKlansman" will be the largest group of award winners, with four acclaimed writers since "Mrs. Miniver "in 1942 (George Froeschel, James Hilton, Claudine West, Arthur Wimperis). This will only be the third group of four in the category history.
  • "Spider-Man: in the Spider-Verse"Will be the first Oscar for animated feature films for Sony Pictures. He only has another candidacy to his credit. This will only be the second time that a studio will face Disney or Pixar and will win the victory.
  • Sandy PowellThe victory of "The Favorite" will put it in third place in the history of costume design, with four. She will join Coleen Atwood and Milena Canonero.
  • "Bohemian Rhapsody" could join "Traffic" as a nominated film for five Oscars, winning four of those awards, one of which is not the best movie.
  • Terence BlanchardThe victory of "BlacKkKlansman" will make him the second black composer to win the best original score since Herbie Hancock in 1986 for "Round Midnight". NOTE: Prince won an Academy Award in 1984 for "Purple Rain" in the retired category, Best Score of the original song.

Make sure to make your predictions in our Circuit Centerand look for the rest of the "Oscar Looks"This week to make things even more confusing. It should also be noted that I reserve the right to modify these forecasts but will probably not do so (because life is too short to insist on such things).

(updated on February 19, 2019)

"The favorite" (This Dempsey, Guiney Ed, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday)

Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"

Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Glenn Close, "The woman"

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"

Rachel Weisz, "The Favorite"

"The favorite" (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)

"BlacKkKlansman" (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott)

"Spider-Man: In the Spider Worm" (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller)

"The favorite" (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)

"Roma" (Alfonso Cuarón)

"The favorite" (Sandy Powell)

"Bohemian Rhapsody" (John Ottman)

Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks)

"Rhapsody of Bohemia" (John Casali, Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin)

"Bohemian Rhapsody" (John Warhurst)

"Ready, Player 1" (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew Butler, David Shirk)

"BlacKkKlansman" (Terence Blanchard)

"Shallow" from "A star is born" (Music and lyrics of Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)

"Solo Free" (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, Shannon Dill)

"Roma" (Mexico)

"Animal Behavior" (David Fine, Alison Snowden)

"End of Game" (Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman)

"Daisy" (Marianne Farley, Marie-Hélène Panisset)

What do you think of the final forecasts for the Oscars? Please share your thoughts in the comments section!

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