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There may be some traditional powers missing in the 2019 Final Four, but there is a lot to expect.
Predict and break down the two games.
No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 5 Auburn
18:09, CBS | Stream here
The best way to beat Virginia's defense is to shoot over (like Carsen Edwards) or beat him in transition. Auburn can do both of these things. The Tigers are 38.3% of their 3 as a team and have been on fire throughout the NCAA tournament.
And their guards are quick. Auburn has made North Carolina look slow, which is the ultimate complement to its collective speed. Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are blurry, and when they are 3, they are indestructible.
This is not a good match for Virginia. That said, it is always difficult to choose against Virginia based on the CV and talent of both teams. Chuma Okeke's defeat did not do much harm to Auburn in Kentucky, but she could sting against the Cavaliers because of De & Andre Hunter. At 6-8, 230 pounds with good length, Okeke would have been an ideal type to throw at Hunter, who could feast against a Tigers front line too small without him.
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The best thing about Auburn's defense is his ability to force turnovers; the Tigers lead the country in a rate of forced rotation. But Virginia is one of the most disciplined teams in the country. The Hoos consume only 14.7% of their property, which ranks 11th in the country. Anything can happen in a 40-minute game, and we know that Virginia tends to move away from her identity at the tournament in recent years. But for now, we should expect Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, Kihei Clark and the rest of the team to secure the ball as they normally do.
This is more about Virginia's attack than his defense, as the Tigers rely heavily on their defense to create transition point opportunities and quick points. It's much harder to run when you take the ball out of the hoop.
If the Cavaliers can take care of the rock and exploit Hunter 's isolation abilities, they will be fit.
Prediction: Virginia 72, Auburn 67
State of Michigan No. 2 vs. Texas Tech No. 3
20:49 Eastern, CBS | Stream here
Such a fun match. If there is a theme in these Final Four teams, that is the discipline. These squads simply do not make mistakes often, and although it's not sexy, it's an extremely valuable feature that will help you win a lot of games.
Texas Tech's argument: Jarrett Culver is the best player on the ground (although Cassius Winston is nearby) and his defense is the best unit among the four of this match. The Red Raiders faced Gonzaga's # 1 offense in the eighth elite and kept him at 69 points. Chris Beard is an absolute master in this regard, and Texas Tech is one of the country's toughest teams.
Michigan State could be the Tom Izzo is without a doubt the most experienced coach in the Final Four. And although Culver may be better than Winston overall, Winston has more opportunities to have an offensive impact on the game since he's a leader. The Spartans have no outstanding players (although Xavier Tillman has been brilliant throughout the tournament and is approaching this status), but they have several competent pieces with which they surround a high-level goalkeeper. It will play.
We cut the hair in four. Texas Tech has a lot of guys to throw at Winston; Michigan State has the bodies to contain Culver. There is no obvious gap to exploit when looking at both alignments.
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But the Red Raiders have been so well lately. Texas Tech has ranked first in defensive efficiency adjusted for most of the season, but the offensive is almost as good since the beginning of February. The Red Raiders were out of the top 75 in attack for a good part of the season, but they are now 30th. They look like a champion on both sides of the ground.
It is felt that Texas Tech has a little more talent thanks to the two-way dominance of Culver and the general excellence of the defense. But it could easily go the other way.
Prediction: Texas Tech 65, State of Michigan 63
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