Firearm homicides have dropped significantly in this region of the United States. What happened? | American News

In California's Silicon Valley, the boom and recession are occurring simultaneously. Technology companies have made the Bay Area one of the richest places in the world. But in the streets of San Francisco and the surrounding cities, despair is more and more visible. The housing crisis that has reached its peak has made it unaffordable for many people to live in the cities where they work. More than 30,000 people in the area are now homeless, many live in large tented camps or sleep in their cars.

For every new million-dollar household created in the San Francisco Bay Area, at least four new people live below the poverty line. The property crime rate in San Francisco has reached the highest level in the country. Many people – newcomers to technology and long-time residents – complain about not feeling safe.

At the same time, with little fanfare, the Bay Area experienced a dramatic drop in its homicide rate, resulting in a dramatic decrease in the number of deadly shootings.

In the region, the overall rate of firearm homicides has dropped by 30% over the last decade, revealed a Guardian investigation involving homicide data in more than 100 cities.

This homicide analysis is the first part of a one-year series devoted to Guardian, which explores how the San Francisco Bay Area meets expectations for gun violence, in a context of violence against women. growing inequality and economic pressures. Advocates and policy makers are already studying the region to see what has worked. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, a 2020 candidate, spoke of Oakland's success in reducing gun violence through its national platform to reduce violence at the national level. The Guardian series will look at what really contributes to reducing the daily number of shootings across the United States and to reveal common myths and lies about gun violence in the country.

Our analysis of homicide data from 2007 to 2017, in more than 100 cities and towns in the 12 counties of the California Bay Area, revealed:

• Firearm homicide rates declined in all racial groups, but the decrease was greatest among black residents.

• The dramatic fall occurred when California's criminal justice reforms reduced the number of people incarcerated in state prisons and local jails. And this occurred when cities, including Oakland and Richmond, invested tens of millions of dollars in public health approaches to preventing gun violence.

• Three cities in full gentrification experienced the largest decline in firearm homicides. But the outlying suburbs – cities where many people evicted by gentrification have moved – have not seen any corresponding increase in violence.

• Despite these decreases, the burden of gun violence continues to be racially disparate and many residents say they do not feel safe.

The Bay Area is still experiencing close to 300 firearm homicides each year. But these changes are profound. The majority of gun homicide victims are blacks, killed in daily shootings in segregated and economically distressed neighborhoods of cities such as Oakland and Richmond. It is this daily record of violence, not massive shooting, that makes the US murder rate 25 times higher than that of other rich countries.

The Guardian's analysis reveals that in the cities of the San Francisco Bay Area where daily violence has had the heaviest burden of violence, firearm homicides have dropped significantly.

Cities that once ranked among the most deadly in the country, such as Oakland and Richmond, have seen huge declines over the past decade. These are not drops in murder over a year, but sustained declines over several years.

Initial evidence that local violence prevention strategies – including a more community-based "ceasefire" peacekeeping strategy and intensive support programs that do not rely on order – were a "key change" contributing to these huge cuts.

Firearm homicide rates for all races decreased, but the decline was largest for residents of the Black Bay area: a 40% decrease.

Over the last 10 years, tens of thousands of black residents have left Oakland and San Francisco, soaring rents and housing prices making cities increasingly unaffordable. However, in the region as a whole, the total number of black residents has remained stable, with the number of black residents living in the outer suburbs of the Bay Area increasing, according to estimates from the annual census.

Even with the decrease, sharp racial disparities remain. The risk of being shot with a gun is still 22 times higher for black residents than for white residents in the area, and many black residents who live in neighborhoods long threatened by violence claim that They do not feel safe yet.

"These areas are always dangerous. It's the same trauma that people have, "said Mya Whitaker, a 27-year-old foster care counselor who grew up in East Oakland and still lives there. "A wrong move can kill you here."

"There is still a lot of work to be done that statistics do not always capture," said Tyjohn "TJ" Sykes, 26, who works at Richmond's RYSE youth center and holds a workshop on what safety means for young residents . "Someone might move into your neighborhood shooting every night, but if they do not hit anyone and that is not recorded, it does not enhance my sense of security."

The decrease in violence in general has not led to a corresponding decrease in police shooting. The police kill an average of at least 14 people every year, most people shot by gunfire, but others by other means, in the San Francisco Bay Area since 2007, according to the information collected by the Attorney General of the State.

But the change in the rate of firearm homicides translates into hundreds of fewer people killed in the Bay Area over the past decade. In 2017 alone, 111 firearm homicides and 151 homicides in total were committed in the region compared to 10 years ago.

While city officials like Oakland have touted progress on the number of firearms-related violence, they have often faced the same question: is the reduction in gun violence simply the result? gentrification?

Local leaders and activists said that this hypothesis was deeply wrong.

"The idea that gentrification is more responsible for reducing shootings and homicides is shocking for hundreds of outreach agents, community members, and front-line practitioners doing this work on a daily basis." "said Pastor Michael McBride, an activist from the San Francisco Bay Area. national campaign to end armed violence and mass incarceration.

An academic study of gun violence in Oakland's neighborhoods revealed that the city's targeted deterrence strategy, known as the "ceasefire", significantly reduced the fire, even taking into account the degree of gentrification in different areas.

Nevertheless, the fact that large decreases in armed violence occur alongside intense gentrification and displacement has raised disturbing questions for some local activists, namely who will benefit from life in a safer Oakland and the interests of the community. decreased shooting. finally serve.

According to Anne Marks, executive director of Youth ALIVE !, a local NGO, some of the violence intervention workers have moved to Oakland and can not afford to live in the city where they are trying to prevent shootings. and to help victims of violence. non-profit.

Wayne Clark, executive director of the Oakland Impact Center, said that for the young men that he advises in East Oakland, it sometimes seems like "the system or public safety care more about the city, now that there is gentrification and yourself. You have big companies and you have dollars and you have whites coming in, "Clark said. "Previously, it was a city populated by poor people and we will let them kill each other."

"As we make the city safer, are we opening the floodgates for gentrification? That's how it feels, "said Clark. "Are we cleaning the city so that other people can move in?"

According to the experts, it may not be possible to accurately determine the factors that are causing the changes in the San Francisco Bay Area. Violence is complex, shaped by a multitude of elements and dynamics. But some broader trends are clear.

The decline in gun violence in the Bay Area does not reflect a decline in global "crime". The rate of property crimes such as theft and burglary decreased by only 16% in the region, with gun violence down by almost a third. The property crime rate in San Francisco has increased while the number of people killed in firearm homicides has decreased.

Criminal justice reforms have reduced the number of residents who spend their lives behind bars. Since 2006, California's state incarcerated population has decreased by 25%, in part due to a Voter Approved Voting Measure of 2014 reducing criminal penalties for drug and non-violent crimes . County prisons in the Bay Area trap thousands of people daily less than 10 years ago.

According to Robyn Thomas, Executive Director of the Giffords Law Center for the Prevention of Gun Violence, California has the most stringent firearms laws in the country and has passed more than 30 new gun control laws. fire.

At the same time, Thomas said: "Few laws promulgated in the last 10 years could have fully explained the significant reductions in the Bay Area".

It is the investment in local prevention strategies in Oakland, Richmond and San Francisco that is probably the "key change" that has contributed the most to the recent 30% drop in firearm homicides, although 'cumulative effect' of dozens of California Firearms laws promulgated since the 1990s likely contributed to a decrease in violence.

Right-wing politicians have intensified their efforts to fuel xenophobia in recent years by linking violent crime with immigrants. But the Bay Area has long been racially and ethnically diverse, and diversity has increased over the last decade, as more and more immigrants from Latin America and Asia they were settling and more and more white residents were moving away, according to census data. According to the most recent estimates, about 600,000 current residents of the San Francisco Bay Area were born in Mexico. And over the past decade, the number of people from the Central American countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras has immigrated.

The policy of protecting undocumented immigrants has also not led to violence, as Donald Trump and some of his Republican allies often point out. San Francisco recorded a 44% drop in its firearm homicide rate, in line with its repressive policies for immigrants.

Local community efforts seem to play a role in the reduction, according to the Giffords Center, which recently released a policy document examining the reduction of gun violence by Oakland, A Case Study in Hope.

At the heart of the different strategies that cities in the Bay Area use are the same basic elements: data, dollars, and community leadership, including the leadership of previously incarcerated residents.

"The common context for each of these cities – Richmond, Oakland and San Francisco – is that they have adopted community-based non-police approaches and that they have been largely funded," said DeVone Boggan, who runs the Richmond office. Neighborhood Safety, which has developed a nationally recognized scholarship program for men most at risk of violence.

"We need to expand the idea of ​​public safety beyond policing and incarceration, to include things like neighborhood intervention, awareness and empowerment," Boggan said. "It's the game changer. That's the difference. "

Long-time community liaison officers and switches of violence, many of whom have already been incarcerated, are critical to the effectiveness of these public health strategies, experts in the region said.

Finally, a better analysis of the perpetrators of violence has helped police, social services and community groups to intervene more effectively. In Oakland, for example, a study conducted in 2017 on each homicide that occurred over an 18-month period showed that only 0.16% of Oakland's population, or about 700 high-risk men, were responsible for the majority of homicides.

And any calculation should also pay tribute to men who decide not to shoot, said Boggan.

"The individuals at the center of these conflicts make healthier decisions," Boggan said. "I think these people have to be a productive part of the solution. They must be accepted and involved in the discussion. "

One of the first participants in the Richmond Scholarship Program graduated from university last year and is preparing to open a business school this fall.

"Armed violence is pretty much a form of illness. Once this starts to touch a person, it starts to spread, "said the former fellow, who asked that his name not be published.

In the summer of 2004, when he was 16, he was shot while listening to the fire on July 4th in his home town of Richmond. . The shooting changed his perspective and his behavior.

"I did not even think about wearing. I played football. Suddenly, I think I need a gun, "he said.

He ended up going to jail for illegally carrying a firearm. Years later, the Neighborhood Security Officer's community of peacekeepers sent him on a journey, including to Washington, DC, and London, with other young men struggling with the cycle of struggle and struggle. retaliation taking place in the region.

The fraternity helped him develop and realize a new vision of his life. He ended up graduating from the historically black college he had visited on one of the trips – a place, he says, where "I did not have to watch over my shoulder".

"Having someone who believes in you and knows you have the potential to go, these things make you want to continue in the same direction," he said.