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About an hour ago
Wednesday’s “first call” gives us the Pittsburgh Steelers game-by-game odds of 16-0.
The Steelers can grab a playoff berth this weekend.
And we get a glimpse of some plans to deal with the rushed Baltimore Ravens attack.
What will it take?
ESPN.com took a deep statistical dive into the 10-0 Steelers. That’s a lot of what you’ve been reading over the past three weeks: a ton of advanced stats on why you should be skeptical of the Steelers going undefeated.
At least skeptical to the point that you shouldn’t buy into the idea that they are going 16-0 or assume their 10-0 record is a precursor to them winning a seventh Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Writer Aaron Schatz said ESPN’s REIT Index places the Steelers third behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The site says, “Pittsburgh has escaped many close games. Simply based on runs scored and awarded, we would project the Steelers to be 8-2 rather than 10-0. Five of their wins came by a touchdown or less, including wins over smaller teams like Denver and Dallas.
And that’s the second reason advanced metrics don’t put the Steelers first: calendar strength. Seven of Pittsburgh’s top 10 wins have come from record-breaking teams. Six of those teams are currently ranked 25th or lower in DVOA (Defense Adjusted to Average). ”
As for their projections to remain undefeated? Football Outsiders in Pittsburgh end the season 16-0 in just 15.7% of the simulations. Still, the odds of them winning each individual game on their schedule are pretty good.
Week 12 vs Baltimore: 68%
Week 13 vs Washington: 84%
Week 14 in Buffalo: 59%
Week 15 in Cincinnati: 88%
Week 16 vs Indianapolis: 66%
Week 17 in Cleveland: 71%
The site evaluated 14 teams that have been 10-0 since 1985 and took the Steelers 10th. Well, I guess they shouldn’t bother playing the rest of the time. ESPN’s statistics geeks have spoken.
Butz’s bet
While the Ravens won’t have running backs Mark Ingram or JK Dobbins at their disposal, Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler doesn’t expect Baltimore’s hasty attack to change much.
“They might change some things, but we’ll see,” Butler said Tuesday. “The best player with the ball in hand is No. 8 (quarterback Lamar Jackson). The ones they get there will be good enough, I guarantee, to run the ball. They do a great job of running the ball and moving around a bit. These guys, I don’t know how much that will affect them.
Here’s what the Ravens’ stats looked like in Week 8, when they played against the Steelers.
JK Dobbins: 15 runs / 113 yards / 7.5 avg
Gus Edwards: 16 runs / 87 yards / 5.4 avg / 1 TD
Lamar Jackson: 16 runs / 65 yards / 4.1 avg
Ingram did not play due to injury.
Edwards had 21 carries for 130 yards in Week 17 last year when neither Ingram nor Jackson played as the Ravens had the field advantage. And Dobbins was still in the state of Ohio.
In the Week 5 game between the teams last year, Jackson had 70 rushing yards. Edwards had 17 out of five races. And Ingram went for 44 out of 19 races.
Playoff linked?
Steelers fans are dreaming big right now. From an unbeaten regular season – and beyond.
But the first thing is the first. Go to the playoffs. It can happen this week, starting with a win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night.
Via NFL.com, “With a win, (the Steelers) could be on their way to the playoffs.
Including a win over the Ravens, the Steelers would also need a loss or draw for the Las Vegas Raiders and a loss or draw for the Miami Dolphins. The two cannot end in a tie.
The Dolphins visit the 0-10 New York Jets. And the Raiders are in Atlanta to take on the 3-7 Falcons. This scenario is therefore remote.
But, hey, five more weeks.
Saad signature
The Colorado Avalanche traded for Brandon Saad of Pittsburgh this offseason.
Now are they going to keep it? Or will he become a free agent after 2021?
Here’s what NBC Sports suggests.
“Unless (Saad) has some kind of monster season where he absolutely lights up the stats sheet, I don’t see how his next contract exceeds his current salary cap of $ 6 million. You might be able to argue for equivalency, or maybe get close to it, but anything over $ 6 million a year seems a lot and probably out of Colorado’s spending range given what ‘they have to do something else. … If the Avalanche can get their price tag in the $ 5-5.5 million range, it might be doable, especially if they let other players go elsewhere on the roster.
Due to his local ties, Saad constantly appears to be on the radar of Penguins fans as a potential acquisition. Or if he is not extended by the Avalanche, Saad could become a post-season free agent at a reduced rate or a commercial candidate by this year’s deadline.
Or there could be no season in the NHL… and what are we even talking about?
Tim Benz is a writer for Tribune-Review. You can contact Tim at [email protected] or via Twitter. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication, unless otherwise specified.
Categories:
Sports | Steelers / NFL | Breakfast with Benz
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