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As is the case with most things in life, whenever you get the chance to pick up on something, it’s never as good or as bad as you initially thought it would be. For the 49ers, this is true for the offense. Not so much for defense as they may have been more impressive than I initially thought.
Let’s take a look at some of the winners and losers in San Francisco’s win over Philadelphia.
Winners
DeMeco Ryans
KISS That’s what Ryans did against the Eagles. In the first downs he played a 2-height safety shell to protect the defense from the threat of the play pass.
Jalen Hurts looked shy in Week 1 to pull the trigger in midfield. His passing chart from Next Gen Stats echoes this:
On the obvious passes, Ryans rushed to five and played the man cover behind the blitz or would have the two edge rushers playing contain and force Hurts to win with his arm. Ryans’ plan worked:
Hurts would look to leave the pocket and throw out numbers more often. Against the man’s cover, throwing the ball outside the numbers makes the most difficult completions. The defensive line put just enough pressure on Hurts, but it was the cover and containment that did the trick. Kudos to Ryans for implementing the perfect game plan for Hurts.
Hurts is a dynamic athlete. These guys are going to play games. The 49ers defense did more than enough to limit the Hurts and the Eagles offense.
Arik Armstead
I could name most of the defense in the winners section. You have to start with Armstead. He regularly bulldozed the Philadelphia Guards all afternoon. Nick Bosa had both sacks, but Armstead had more of an impact. Armstead gets credit for an assist in hockey on Bosa’s second sack for pushing the cross and keeping him in Hurts’ knees so he had nowhere to intervene.
He kicked Hurts out of the pocket. On the 91-yard pass, Armstead brings the guard back to Hurts’ face and sends him flying back. The whole defensive line flashed, but neither did Armstead.
Jimmy and Joe
Ryans deserves credit for the game plan and for putting his players in a position to succeed. These players have won their 1v1 battles time and time again. The same goes for the offense too.
I could name about 15 defensive games where a 49ers defenseman beat his man 1 on 1. It wasn’t the usual suspects. Of course, you can afford to run Cover-1 when you have the luxury of slipping Jimmie Ward into the slot to protect DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, or Zach Ertz.
You can load the box near the goal line safe in the knowledge that Fred Warner won’t fall for the game action trap and erase their tight end in the blanket. Bosa’s two bags ended the trips, but it was Arden Key and Kentavius Street that did the same on a few separate trips.
Speaking of the defensive line, it’s time to give DJ Jones her flowers. The physique was off the charts on Sunday, and Jones no one on the court was more physical than Jones. After Armstead, Jones won the most lead.
On offense, those short passes don’t work without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle breaking up tackles and turning three and four yard gains into six and seven yards. Blocking clips of Kittle and Trent Williams making pancakes or escorting defenders out of the stadium will never get old:
Talent won’t get you far, but it was enough to secure a victory over the Eagles.
Losers
The racing game
The only thing that hasn’t changed after watching the game again is the lack of running game. The 49ers sit 15th for the EPA and 16th for ground success rate this season with five explosive running games, making it 13th in the league. San Francisco’s rushed DVOA is also 16th.
We’re used to a Kyle Shanahan attack being in the top 7 in each of these categories. I explained earlier how the lack of deep passing affects the running game. It might be too hard for Elijah Mitchell, but Raheem Mostert runs for 100 yards against the Eagles.
I noted three specific races where he had massive reduction lanes or Mitchell didn’t follow the block of rear Kyle Juszczyk. I’m not sure if Mitchell is playing with tunnel vision or if he’s worried about going north and south as a runner, but the racing lanes are there, and that’s why JaMycal Hasty had a sprint of 21 meters.
San Francisco’s running backs had a 20% success rate when carrying the ball on Sunday. It cannot happen again.
Too many low thirds
Usually, the more third tries you have, the less you do the first few tries. Take a look at the 49ers’ anticipated success rate, per RBSDM:
Out of nine potential scenarios, the 49ers only surpass their expected exit on 2nd and 8+ or after rushing for a first down.
For reference, a list of teams that have an average of more than 14 thirds held per match:
Houston
Buffalo
Detroit
Los Angeles Chargers
Caroline
Atlanta
Miami
This is not the list you want to be associated with. The 49ers are ranked 19th in the NFL for third-place conversion rate in two games. This number is sure to improve, but it shows how difficult it is to convert third after third after.
These early running games put pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo and the passing game to convert. Against Philadelphia, the offensive success rate on the first downs was 27%.
Shanahan will have to throw the ball in the first downs to avoid getting stuck with third and long situations. The current run-run-pass offense will fall short of the best in the NFL.
Winners
The secondary
Shanahan highly appreciated the way Tartt and Ward handled their 1v1 coverage on the pitch in difficult positions against wide receivers. Watching those two cover spreaders 40 yards down the field, smashing a receiver, and then pounding blocks at the line of scrimmage will always impress.
Tartt blew up a 3rd and 1 game that forced a punt. Ward won DeVonta Smith in the lunge on one play, which resulted in Hurts holding the ball. These two are special players.
Josh Norman’s pass interference calls will be what everyone will remember, but you didn’t hear his name called after that and there was a reason for it. No one opened up to him.
Deommodore Lenoir had a target in the back against the Eagles. Philadelphia has targeted him eight times. You can’t erase the 91-yard pass Lenoir gave up. It’s about bouncing back, and the rookie cornerback hasn’t given up next to anything after that. On seven other targets, Lenoir allowed 23 yards and broke three passes while also showing support in the run.
This target is not going anywhere for Lenoir as he will see a lot of Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Tyler. Lockett, DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green over the next three weeks.
Jimmy Garoppolo for 2.5 quarters
Garoppolo took a few hits that affected his throws on Sunday. He also missed a few open shots that he would like to recover. In one game, Jimmy G went in the wrong direction, which almost ruined an opportunity for a first try.
I thought once the four-minute offense took hold before half-time and beyond, Jimmy took his game to another level.
From avoiding rushers, pulling the trigger and squeezing the ball through narrow windows, Garoppolo did what the 49ers needed him to do.
Will his hiccups be something Shanahan has to train? It is something to watch out for. As long as that happens, fans will want to see Trey Lance, although he doesn’t play against the Eagles.
There were more good than bad, and his good was excellent, which is why Garoppolo ended up victorious.
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