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The problem with the Kansas City Chiefs is that almost nothing qualified for Patrick Mahomes.
A year ago, predicting that Mahomes would become the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season (in his first-ever NFL starting quarterback) would have been insane, but Mahomes did not fact throw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in his first-ever season as NFL starting quarterback, which makes it difficult to find strong predictions for Mahomes and the Chiefs. It's not possible to predict a 6,000-yard, 60-touchdown season because it's actually insane. But we'll do the best we can.
Continuing our summer series here at CBS Sports as the season goes ahead (only one week to go), let's make a success of the upcoming Chiefs season after their mesmerizing in the AFC Championship Game.
1. Mahomes repeats as MVP with 50 TDs, 5,000 yards
If you play fantasy football, there's a good chance you've heard about it for regression when it comes to Mahomes. The argument makes sense.
There's a good chance Mahomes will not throw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards again, because it's almost impossible to throw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards on a consistent basis. There's a reason why Peyton Manning only did it once more besides Mahomes and Manning has never done it. Only two quarterbacks (Manning and Drew Brees) have thrown for 4,500-plus yards and 35-plus touchdowns in consecutive seasons. History says Mahomes will regress.
So, I guess it's bold, in a way, to say that it's going to be a lot like it. MVP while piecing together another 50-touchdown, 5,000-yard season.
It's worth repeating that it's a good thing to have a good start, which means it's a decent chance it'll improve just by having acquired more experience. When you look at the pieces surrounding Mahomes, it's not like the offense got worse at the skill positions. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and Damien Williams are still around and they're joined by rookies Mecca Hardman and Darwin Thompson. The key, of course, is Andy Reid. As long as he's there, Mahomes is going to be in the best possible situation to succeed. Another key is the Chiefs' defense, which will be more likely to remain bad. If the Chiefs' defense is bad, Mahomes will be forced to win a lot of shootouts. There will be many games where the Chiefs can sit on a modest lead and chew up the clock. They'll need to keep it up and keep it up, and nobody should be surprised if that's exactly what Mahomes does.
History says Mahomes will regress. But has there ever been a quarterback like Mahomes in NFL history?
2. Goal Mahomes' interception count spikes
While Mahomes should have a shot at winning MVPs, do not be surprised if his interception count rises.
A year ago, he was lucky to get away with only 12 interceptions in the regular season. Football Outsiders Tracks has been intercepted, but has been intercepted, but has not been intercepted, but has been intercepted, but was not the quarterback's fault. Last year, Mahomes for the most adjusted interceptions (21) with Sam Darnold.
Given how much it is going to be, it will not be surprising if we see his interception count spike. But even if Mahomes were to throw somewhere around 16 or so interceptions, he should have a reasonable shot at winning MVP – assuming his touchdowns and yards remain consistent. He gets away with most of his risks. That should not change.
3. Hardman, Thompson combines for 12 TDs
The Chiefs found a way to upgrade the job by drafting receiver Mecca Hardman in the second round and running back Darwin Thompson in the sixth round. But they are both finding it difficult to make a sizable impact as Week 1.
Still, despite a crowd of playmakers, the prediction is that the two rookies will combine to score 12 touchdowns from scrimmage. For context, consider that Williams and Watkins only combined to score nine touchdowns last year. The vast majority of touchdowns will still belong to Hill and Kelce, a duo that combined for 23 touchdowns last year.
ace we've seen in the preseason, the Chiefs should design plenty of nifty plays for Hardman to take advantage of his speed.
(As a quick aside, it's all about those little touch passes, which are more like handoffs but count as pass attempts, that will help Mahomes get back to 50 touchdowns.)
As we have seen in the preseason, Thompson is good at getting some keys from Williams.
The Chiefs scored 35.3 points per game last season. So, there's plenty of touchdowns to be spread around.
4. The defense does not improve at all
The Chiefs underwent a massive transformation on the defensive side of the ball after their defense cost them a spot in the Super Bowl. They fired defensive coordinator Bob Sutton and replaced him with Steve Spagnuolowhich means they are also changing schemes. They parted ways with both Justin Houston and Dee Ford, and traded for Frank Clark. They said goodbye to Eric Berry and signed Tyrann Mathieu.
They've made your moves, but it's probably not going to make much of a difference. The fourth bold prediction is that the Chiefs' defense will not improve in 2019.
In Spagnuolo's nine seasons as a defensive coordinator and head coach, his defenses have been ranked twice. Six times his defenses have finished worse than 25th in points allowed. While the Chiefs' decision to part ways with both Houston and Ford was probably at least partially related to their schematics, the simple fact is that they have gotten rid of two players. Clark is a good player, but he can not replace their production.
Last year, the Chiefs finished 26th in defensive DVOA. The year before, they ranked 30th. I'm predicting they'll be somewhere in between 26th and 30th in 2019. And if Mahomes 'interception count really does rise, then they'll probably give up more points too (after allowing 26.3 points per game last year) because they' It is placed in worse situations.
5. But the Chiefs still win the Super Bowl
The thing is, the Chiefs do not need help to improve the Super Bowl. Even with a defense that ranked 26th in DVOA, 31st in yards allowed, and 24th in points allowed, the Chiefs came out to reach the Super Bowl. If they'd won that overtime they'd have marched right down the field and scored a touchdown – they scored 31 points in the second half, including 24 in the fourth quarter alone. If the Chiefs were a corner to reach the Super Bowl last season, they can take the next step during the next season.
The key is how much the Chiefs' offense regresses. They're probably not going to average 35.3 points per game again. But even if the Chiefs' offense takes a small step back, they're still probably going to be the best offense in football. They were the best offense in the last season by a wide margin, outscoring the Rams by 38 points and the Saints by 61 points.
Furthermore, I'm not really convinced of the Chiefs offense. This will be Mahomes' second season as a starter and his third season in the offense. Is not there a chance he had a chance to master the offense after learning the past couple seasons? Is not there a chance he's going to get even better? Most quarterbacks do not peak in Year 1 or 2. They usually only get to know each other. As Tom Brady said a couple years ago, "I have the answers to the test now." There was no way in the past year, but it was not possible.
You might think that the Chiefs to make the Super Bowl is not so good, but this point in the Patriots' dynasty, picking any team other than the Patriots to win the AFC qualifies as a bold prediction. The final prediction is that the Chiefs topple the Galactic Empire and then go on the whole thing.
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