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Less than a week ago, the Toronto Raptors looked indomitable. After winning Orlando Magic with four consecutive wins, the Raptors faced the Philadelphia 76ers in the opening game of their conference semifinal by playing the kind of fierce team defense that often points to a Championship potential. With a 45-point performance in the first game, Kawhi Leonard added to what was billed as one of the best post-season individual campaigns in the NBA's history.
The 76ers, meanwhile, looked messy – a stuck offense in the mud, no answer for Leonard and a featured center of Joel Embiid rendered ineffective by Marc Gasol's health problems, resistance or a combination both. The Sixers found defensive answers in the second game. They escaped Toronto by separating. Even though they maximized Jimmy Butler in the half-court, there remained a lot of offensive questions.
In the third game, the Sixers held an exhibition of their best basketball. In 95 possessions, they were able to find quality shooting opportunities in a variety of ways: a Butler-led roll attack, clever off-ball action to free players like JJ Redick, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons, an inadequate basketball trait and a handful of transition buckets in a timely manner.
Meanwhile, the Raptors were unrecognizable in game 3. One of the most intelligent units of basketball seemed confused in the half-court, unable to capitalize on its multiple skills to find creative solutions to the problems posed by the versatile long defense of the Sixers. Leonard managed to get 32 points, but as Kyle Lowry said after the match, "We have to help him."
For Raptors, there may be fewer hands to provide this help. Pascal Siakam is considered as doubtful as he, because the contusion in the right calf was suffered during the defeat of Thursday night.
The Sixers are now leading the series 2-1, and the fourth game (Sunday at 3:30 pm (ET) on ABC) presents interesting tactical challenges for both teams.
If Siakam does not play, what do the Raptors do?
The emergence of Siakam has been one of the dominant themes for the Raptors this season, giving them another powerful striker who presents match-up nightmares. The results achieved by Siakam also reduced the pressure on Lowry, allowing him to facilitate, manage and maintain food in his mouth.
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While OG Anunoby was still recovering from an appendectomy, Siakam could not get dressed in Game 4. There would be no comfortable solution for Toronto. Anunoby is the ideal lining in the front of the thunder.
The Raptors love the rhythm and movement of the ball that they have traditionally achieved from the lineup featuring Lowry alongside rearguard Fred VanVleet. But it would be a painfully small backcourt for a team of Raptors already at a disadvantage in size. Guard Norman Powell has a few inches on VanVleet, but it would still take Leonard to fourth.
The Raptors could start Serge Ibaka, although the backup center struggled during this series, seeming completely detached at crucial moments. Raptors coach Nick Nurse could also put Patrick McCaw on the starting lineup, which would maintain rotation – although it's worth questioning, given the poor performance of reserve units, if this rotation worth preserving.
Can the Raptors unlock their attack with a ball movement?
Since the offense has fallen into the doldrums during the second game, the Raptors and their coaches have been focusing on the movement of the ball as an antidote. At the moment, they are failing this goal.
One way to achieve better movement: Facilitate further offense through Gasol, which has been rendered ineffective. The sequences of 5 exits, workout and kick are effective when they work, but Gasol has natural gifts as a great man with size, instinct and finesse that go beyond the simple stretching the ground. Throughout his career, Gasol has been a scholar at the top level, where he knows how to get things done. It's a great talented who can find a high percentage of looks for his teammates with transfers, high-low actions, basic hitters and more. At the moment, he is not asked to do that.
How can the Raptors find their defensive mojo?
In all their effectiveness, the Raptors have one of the most devastating defenses of the league, and for good reason: the staff at the individual level is exceptional and the collective intelligence of the unit is unparalleled in the East .
This combination is particularly evident when the Raptors deploy their defense of help. Take a guy like Leonard, who has an unusual ability to help his main assignment and wreak havoc while intuitively knowing when and how he will return if possession requires it. Lowry and Green also excel in these calculations. And if a rotation is needed, the speed and versatility of Siakam allow it to pick up any Sixer on the ground.
Given this ability, Toronto may need to be more aggressive in its half-court approach. The Raptors have doubled selectively, but given their staff, they can probably tolerate more risk. The Sixers are a rotation-prone team, especially Embiid, and a Raptors team that aggressively deploys some guerrilla tactics could potentially upset a Sixers team that was much too comfortable Thursday night.
Can the Sixers continue to run Butler?
Although Butler certainly qualifies as a player capable of creating throws for himself, it is a lot easier for him if the Sixers work as a unit to help him, which is what he does. they get with good results.
Butler has given the Sixers their first legitimate threat of pick and roll for years and when Embiid shows up with any conviction, all sorts of options open up. The trend of Embiid will usually be to do jumps – it takes less work, and shooting in 3s is fun. But if Embiid were willing to use a frequency similar to that of Nikola Jokic, it would help make Butler's and the Sixers' overall offensive more effective.
Butler is not strictly a big screen practitioner and isolation in this series. He also worked outside the ball along the baseline to emerge as a powerful second-side option, which we saw a few times in the first half on Thursday.
Butler has other ways to put pressure on the Raptors' defense and many series are still available to allow the Sixers to explore this menu. Meanwhile, movement and variety can keep the Raptors out of balance.
Find everything you need to know about the playoffs here.
Make or miss?
When the momentum seems to favor such a radical team, as is the case for the Sixers who start the fourth match, it is necessary to examine the quality of the shots generated by each team. The Raptors admit that their defense in Match 3 and their ball movement over the last two matches have not been up to the task, but on Saturday Nurse pointed out that he felt there was had plenty of opportunities for the attack of the Raptors – – They are just not converted.
There is some truth to this premise. Per second of spectral data on the three games in this series, the Raptors have generated a respectable quantifiable shooting probability of 53% (the statistic measures the team's actual effective goal percentage when you factor in the shooter, attempt and defense). No team in the second round had a performance as poor as that of the throws – and it's not even tight.
The Sixers must be satisfied with what they have concocted offensively in the third game. If Embiid can beat Lowry by far in the series, he will probably be in good shape. But they will have to continue to cultivate even more high-percentage appearances, as it is unlikely that what happened easy Thursday will be replicated.
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