Republicans avoided the disaster Tuesday night as GOP state Senator Dan Bishop won a 51% to 49% victory over Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina's 9th congressional district. where a new poll fraud scandal had necessitated new elections. But Tuesday's results have nothing to blame: bishop and republican groups spent more than $ 6 million to barely hang on to a district president, Donald Trump, had only 12 points.
Bishop's victory, along with the expected victory of GOP representative Greg Murphy in the 3rd District of North Carolina, leaves the House with 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and an independent representative, Michigan representative Justin Amash. That means Republicans will have to win 19 seats to win the House in the fall – a task made even more difficult by the GOP's retirements, which have improved Democrats' rallying opportunities, particularly in the United States. Texas.
Here are five points to remember from the narrow escape of Republicans in North Carolina's 9th District:
1) The results are bad news for Trump.
Despite the president's victory on Twitter, Tuesday's arrival photo shows that the political climate has not improved much for Republicans since the semester of 2018. Bishop lost the suburb of Charlotte that Trump had taken away in 2016, even though Bishop hails from these suburbs and brought them on the road to his reelection to the state Senate last fall.
If Trump were to replicate Bishop's performance across the state in November, he would clearly lose North Carolina – a state essential to his re-election path. It is also clear that, to match his 2016 success, Trump will need a Democratic opponent that he demonizes much more effectively than McCready, a moderate veteran of the Marine Corps who downplayed social issues such as the ## 147 ## Abortion and put forward the high cost of prescription drugs.
2) The results are good news for the majority in the House of Democrats.
Even if a defeat would have been disastrous for the GOP's morale, Bishop's victory will do nothing to persuade the House Republicans – many of whom are about to run again in 2020 – that they are able to resume control next year. According to the Cook Party supporters index, there are 35 seats held by the GOP less Republicans than the 9th District of North Carolina.
3) The popularity of Trump with its base has not been transferred.
Trump held a rally on the eve of Bishop's election in Fayetteville, but Bishop still underperformed Trump's margin in the 10-point district. This is a sign that, just as in 2018, many Trump voters do not want to stand in front of GOP politicians who vote for a negative ballot while Trump is not registered on the ballot itself. The good side of Republicans with red seats: Trump will be back on the ballot next fall.
4) The key to Bishop's victory may have been a local Native American tribe.
Robeson County, home to the Lumbee tribe and one-sixth of the 9th District population, is one of the most affected by the economic crisis in North Carolina. By registering parties, Democrats are 60 to 13 percent more likely than Republicans. But in 2016, Trump's call to America's "forgotten" helped to bring the county 4 points.
In 2018, Robeson County returned to form by voting for McCready by 15 points. According to a local source, McCready would have benefited from the candidacy of a Lumbee Democrat in the presidential election on the same ballot last fall. But Tuesday, McCready won Robeson County by just 1 point, which could cost him the win. A analysis by J. Miles Coleman showed that the greatest movement occurred in the densely populated areas of Lumbee.
So how did Bishop, whose Senate District of Charlotte Region is far from Robeson County, do so well there? It turns out that in March, when Bishop had just started his candidacy for the presidential election of Congress, he sponsored a bill aimed at opening up more opportunities for grants to the Lumbees by clarifying the recognition of the tribe by the state. Bishop's photo appeared in the Robesonian, and that probably paid off on Tuesday.
5) It is difficult to lose money by betting on a growing divide between the subway and rural areas.
McCready surpassed its index in 2018 in the suburb of Charlotte, Mecklenburg County, extending its margin from 9 to 12 points. And he tied his performances in 2018 in Union County, which contains Charlotte's most conservative exiles. But in the other six rural counties, McCready significantly underperformed last fall.
This widening gap is the same as we have seen in almost every special election held in the House in the last five years. And this suggests that 2020 should continue on this path: to beat Trump, Democrats will have to nominate a candidate capable of taking advantage of the president's increasingly toxic status in prosperous suburbs without losing too many rural and small-town voters city, like those in Robeson County. .