A Donald Trump's campaign speech delivered Monday night in the border town of El Paso, Texas, not only electrified the crowd of 6,500 spectators who found themselves wearing red hats to enjoy a night under the sign of flags, immigrants and democratic dissensions.
"Is there a place more fun than a Trump rally?" Asked the president from the stage, to a cascade of applause.
The speech was also a test for the message Trump will use to try to get re-elected – and there is a chance that it can work, said strategists from all walks of life.
While some Democratic strategists mocked the speech resembled much the speeches made by Trump before the Republicans suffered historic losses at the mid-term in 2018, others warned that the fundamental message – of economic prosperity ruled by Trump threatened by a radical democratic agenda – could be effective in 2020.
At the center of the El Paso speech was a simple but potentially powerful cadre of the opposition party.
"Democrats have never been more out of the mainstream," Trump said. "They become the party of socialism, late abortion, open borders and crime."
Not through even the most partisan goal, none of Trump's words could be confused with the truth. But the framing showed how his campaign envisioned painting the Democratic Party with a palette of conspiracy and fear, with just enough facts to appeal to voters beyond the central core who automatically agree with the president. .
Rick Wilson, veteran Republican strategist and a dedicated member of the "Never Trump" camp, said that he had observed that Trump was talking about a strong economy in order to appeal to a wider circle of people. 39; electorate.
"He will continue to say at the base:" Immigration, caravan, the deadly Mexicans, here are the terrorists, "because these people are ready and conditioned for this message," Wilson said. "But he has to go out – you can not win the presidency with 30% of Americans."
Demonstrator and Democratic strategist, Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research Partners, said that Trump was also trying to consolidate the evangelical Christian vote by talking about abortion, and that he was hitting the Democrats out of necessity, because his relatively low approval rate meant that he was "out of control". he could not just trust his record.
"The main challenge for the Democrats is not to bite on the hook," said Lake. "It's easy to want to defend yourself against that kind of thing. But the most important thing is that the Democrats define themselves, and the most important problem on which they define themselves is the economy.
"And it would be a big mistake to take that bait all the time, and that's what I think the Democrats have to protect themselves from."
"Sell the idea, not the reality"
If Trump does not know who will be his opponent in 2020, he seems certain of the way he will fight them.
"They come for your money and they come for your freedom," Trump told El Paso, adding, "Radical resistance. It's the radical left. "
Judging by the polls, it is the Republicans, not the Democrats, who are outside the mainstream. The main democratic political priorities – to develop the labor market, to widen access to healthcare, to fight against inequalities of wealth and to fight against discrimination – all benefit from public support superior to the brand policy. of Trump consisting of building a wall on the Mexican border, not to mention the Republican tax priorities on the wealthy and blocking health care reform.
But Trump does not hold a policy symposium, political analysts said.
"With Trump, it's about selling the idea, not the reality," said Republican strategist Evan Siegfried. And that's his thing throughout his career. He just switched from this model to politics. "
Trump will try to define the Democrats in a negative way by attacking the party's most visible young stars, said Siegfried, who thought the method could be effective with voters in the center.
"We see a lot of new students among the Democrats – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar – they all have a very high profile and they push pretty cool stuff that push the Democratic Party farther to the left, in a place where I do not think the general electorate – at least the elastic voters – is at # 39; ease. "
The Democratic Party sees in its unprecedented group of young diverse talents, a sign of unequivocal promise, as the country looks more and more like the trio named Siegfried and less and less to Trump.
But there is no doubt that Trump may perceive a political opportunity to attack young democrats. In El Paso, he made fun of a nearby counter-rally led by former representative Beto O'Rourke.
"He has 200 people, 300 people," Trump told his crowd. "Not too good."
Trump also attacked Ocasio-Cortez, although not by name, ridiculing a political plan known as the Green New Deal, which the new congressman helped unveil last week.
"I really do not like their policy of taking off your car, taking your flights, getting a train in California," you're not allowed to own cows anymore " Trump said, "Lotta problems, Lotta problems."
Trump was leafing through a fact sheet on the policy released by the Ocasio-Cortez office, which was subsequently disavowed, in which it was about getting rid of "cows and planes farting." The current plan to reduce emissions does not mention cars, planes or cows, farting or otherwise.
"Sometimes you give the sword to your opponent"
"It's a race that Trump can not win, but that Democrats can absolutely lose," Wilson said. "Sometimes you give your opponent the sword to cut off your head.
"And for Democrats in search of political death, nothing would make it more likely that they were leading their 2020 campaign with gun control, climate change, and abortion. You want Trump to be re-elected? That's how you do it. You lead with these three things. "
Lake Democratic strategist said that while Trump was shouting at socialism, Democrats should talk about health and jobs.
"I would not worry about the label" used by Trump, such as "socialist" or otherwise, said Lake. "I would like the Democrats to define what they are defending. And the biggest challenge is not to get distracted by the president and not to pursue all the rabbits that he throws out there.
"We need to improve our economy. We must communicate an economic message. This is the most important thing to do. It should be what the Democrats are focusing on. "