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Scientists see Florida – the state most advanced in lifting restrictions, reopening society, and welcoming tourists – as an indicator of the nation.
If there is any indication of recent trends, the rest of the country may be in trouble.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Florida has been steadily increasing, although hospitalizations and deaths are still on the decline. Over the past week, the state has averaged nearly 5,000 cases per day, an 8% increase from its average two weeks earlier.
B.1.1.7, the most contagious variant first identified in Britain, is also growing exponentially in Florida, where it accounts for a greater proportion of the total number of cases than in any other state, according to the figures collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. .
“Wherever we are growing exponentially, we would expect an increase in cases, and an increase in cases will lead to hospitalizations and deaths,” said Bill Hanage, epidemiologist at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.
Florida has had one of the most confusing and ineffective vaccination drives in the country, and has fully immunized about 15% of its population – well below what major states, like New Mexico and Dakota in the South, have succeeded. Still, vaccinating the elderly and other high-risk people may alleviate the number of deaths in Florida somewhat. The state announced that it would begin offering the vaccine to anyone over the age of 18 on April 5.
At least some of the cases in Florida are the result of the state’s open invitation to tourists. Hordes of spring break students have descended on the state since mid-February. Rowdy crowds in Miami Beach this month forced officials to impose an 8 p.m. curfew, though many still flouted the rules.
Miami-Dade County, which includes Miami Beach, has experienced one of the worst epidemics in the country and continues to record high numbers. The county has recorded an average of more than 1,100 cases per day over the past week.
In Orange County, cases are on the rise among young people. People 45 and under represent one in three hospitalizations for Covid, and the average age of new infections has fallen to 30.
Governor Ron DeSantis rejected the strict restrictions early in the pandemic. Florida has never had a mask warrant, and in September Mr DeSantis banned local governments from carrying out their own warrants. Among its science advisers now are the architects of the Great Barrington Declaration, which called on political leaders to allow the coronavirus to spread naturally among young people, while the elderly and those with underlying illnesses are in the spotlight. shelter in place.
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