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Since high school, Harper was considered the choice of baseball. He was selected with the first overall pick in the 2010 draft, and his hype at LeBron James was apparently warranted in 2015, when he produced 10 more wins than the replacement for the 22nd time in N.L. history – and the first by someone else than Barry Bonds or Sammy Sosa since 1975.
But in the three years since then, when Harper was preparing a pay for a free agency and people were speculating about a $ 500 million deal, he only had one payday loan. combined war of 7.5.
Arenado, selected with the 59th pick in the 2009 draft, and better known for his glove than for his bat in his first seasons, produced 19.4 WAR over the same three-year period.
They were quite similar offensively. Arenado's production, once adjusted for its national park, was 31% above the league average, while Harper improved by 33% as a distance player. But Arenado was more durable and the gap between his defensive value is extreme: Arenado produced 5.4 defensive WARs and won a gold glove in each of those three seasons, while Harper in a much less position vital, generated a defensive war less-4.2.
If Arenado had managed to go into free mode next season, he would have no idea what kind of offer he could have received. He would have been almost 29 years old and would have liked Coors Field, which would have asked him if his success could be replicated elsewhere. But he would also be on the (very) short list of the best players in baseball, an assertion that neither Harper nor Machado could really do.
Harper, however, is expected to benefit greatly from the fact that Arenao is excluded from the market for eight years. All teams planning to recruit the Colorado franchise player next year will have to look elsewhere.
And Harper, alone at the top of the market, is not only the best free agent remaining, but also, taking into account his age and his ceiling, the best that will be coming for the next seasons. He will probably be paid at the same level as Arenado, and the only open question will be whether he can come back to play like him.
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