[ad_1]
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky had nothing to say to CNN's approach on Tuesday. When asked if trade with China had been beneficial for his country, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina replied that he did not know. His colleague, Senator Carolinian South, Lindsey Graham, said that it was a good question and that he should think about it. Senator Ted Cruz from Texas just shrugged.
There is a reason Southern Republicans are reluctant to talk about tariffs. The South has benefited from free trade and from all parts of the country, boosting demand for its agricultural products and providing low-cost components to its mills to feed the growing industrial base of the region.
But these economic interests go against the political preferences of the majority of voters in southern states, where Trump enjoys one of its best approval ratings in the country.
While tariff issues have been immediate for Midwestern farmers who are stuck with bushels of unsold crops and are facing an upsurge in bankruptcies, the South may not be much behind schedule as Trump's trade war lingers .
Politicians and business leaders in the region are worried that a protracted trade war may disrupt nearly three decades of economic revitalization that has brought industry, jobs and billions of dollars in business. foreign investment in large areas of the South and strengthened the GOP's hold on the region. policy.
According to a recent analysis by Deutsche Bank, of the eight states whose economy is most affected by Chinese tariffs and which is likely to be, five are in the south: Louisiana, South Carolina , Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi. All voted for Trump in 2016.
Trump's hold on the south
While Republicans from the Midwestern agricultural states have voiced their opposition to the trade war, most notably the Iowa Senator, Farmer Chuck Grassley, the southern Republicans have mostly kept their heads down.
This may simply be a political calculation on the part of Republicans from a region that still strongly supports the president. According to the state trends compiled by Morning Consult, the popularity of the president has fallen more in the agricultural region than in the Great South. For example, since taking office, Trump's net approval has dropped 19 points in Nebraska, 17 points in Iowa and 22 points in Kansas.
In comparison, he lost only 10 points in Alabama, 11 points in Louisiana and 14 points in Mississippi.
This calculation could change if Trump's commercial policy began to impose significant costs on the Southerners. This could take some time as fares evolve along complex supply chains woven into the various sectors of the region, increasing costs, reducing profits and ultimately affecting the consumer's wallet.
The retail giant is the largest private employer in the South and one of the pillars of the region's identity. Consumers may not yet feel the effects of tariffs, but they will do so in a few months.
"If you go back to school and people are trying to buy clothes overseas for their children, it's at that point that people will feel it", said Chip Felkel, a veteran Republican agent from Greenville, South Carolina. When this happens, the loyalty of the supporters to Trump will only bear fruit for the elect.
"At one point, the elected Republicans will either attack the issue or remind them that any policy is local," Felkel said.
For the moment, however, Southern Republicans are hoping that tariffs will remain a temporary tool to improve the situation in the long run. "We have benefited from trade with China, but not to the point where we should do it," said Georgian Senator David Perdue, former CEO of a prolific low-cost retailer in the South, Dollar General. "We do not have a level playing field."
A resurgence of the south
During the campaign, Trump's message that foreign countries would scam American workers and steal their jobs resonated especially in the Rust Belt area, where free trade has really undermined the manufacturing sector. This helped Trump become the first Republican in decades to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
But the story of Trump's American carnage was not as applicable to the South. When the manufacturing industry dried up in the industrial Midwest, production shifted to the southern states, companies chasing non-unionized labor, cheap land , low taxes and deep water ports. In this way, the region was fertile ground for the ethics of the modern republican party of market economy and cultural conservatism.
Foreign direct investment has also poured into the south of the country, with companies such as Michelin, Volvo, Bosch and Fujifilm all of which have major operations in South Carolina alone. The proliferation of foreign automobile assembly plants in the South, from BMW South Carolina to Toyota in Kentucky, via Nissan in Tennessee and Mississippi, testifies to the region's place as that motor of manufacture. The ports of New Orleans, Charleston, Savannah and Mobile have been the main gateways for the region's exports and international imports.
A drive on the Interstate 85 – from the North Carolina Research Triangle, passing through the north to South Carolina and the Atlanta subway, to Montgomery – reveals a corridor of 39; ;heavy industry. New factories and factories, many of them owned by foreigners, are surrounded by auxiliary industrial parks and service companies.
What worries business leaders in the South is that the trade measures taken by the president undermine the economic success of the region. Mike Randle, owner and publisher of the Alabama-based Southern Business & Development media group, spends much of his time tracking new investment projects in the 15-state region from Texas to Virginia.
He says the slowdown has already begun.
"Fares have taken the most competitive region in the United States and are undermining those benefits," Randle told CNN. "The activity has stagnated. People are worried about what will happen and, of course, costs have increased in all areas."
According to Randle's count, the number of new car manufacturing projects in the South with 200 or more jobs peaked in 2015 at 111. In 2018, the number of projects was halved to 55.
Last year, the administration introduced foreign steel and aluminum tariffs in the name of national security, increasing costs in most of the auto sector. Trump plans to impose a similar tariff on foreign auto parts, but it seems likely to delay this action for up to six months.
Nevertheless, the mere threat of this action has scared businesses, particularly because of the severity of their damage to the southern auto sector.
"If he puts in these 232 tariffs [on foreign automobiles] we will be in a recession in one year, "Randle said.
Uncertainty is a problem
That's the reason, Randle adds, that no one in the economic development of the South supports tariffs.
"When you build planes in South Carolina with Boeing or cars with Kia here in Georgia, their main need is certainty," said J. Mac Holladay, who led economic development offices on a scale from South Carolina, Mississippi and Georgia. . "We are so interdependent – internationally and economically – that we simply need a way forward that does not always consist in taking an ax."
Southern business leaders are not left out and do not take it. Michael Olivier, the former Secretary of Economic Development of Louisiana, said that all citizens, from state ports to industry and agriculture associations, have been lobbying on members of Congress to let them know that too many fares for too long are bad for business. "We are a very trade-sensitive state," said Olivier.
"I can not tell you how many people came to our office, whether it was in Mt. Pleasant or DC, just to know what to expect," said Joe Cunningham, a young Democrat from Caroline County. South which represents the Charleston area. . "There are clearly hundreds of millions of dollars in investment projects that have been set aside or have been frozen until we know where we are going in this" trade war "."
What are Republicans waiting for?
But what most southern Republicans seem to be waiting for is a positive resolution of Trump's trade stalemate with Beijing.
"President Trump has made the defense of American workers the main driver of all his negotiations," said Chris Wilson, a Republican pollster from Texas. "Our data shows that voters in the South and even the main battlefield states are in. As long as the economy is strong, GOP members have a secure position with the president."
Wilson admits that if the economy turned, it could change the fortune of Trump and the GOP even in the deep red south. But for now, the president can trust the voters of the region, even if they do not like the methods of the administration.
"I am not a fare man," said Senator Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, to CNN. "I do not like tariffs, because it's still a reaction-action, but I think Trump is about to renegotiate our trade agreements."
Even those who are calm about Trump's tariffs say that there are legitimate reasons to target China for unfair trade practices. "We have to get their attention one way or another, maybe that's the way to attract it," said Olivier.
He paused, then added, "But I do not know if we can continue this for a long time."
[ad_2]
Source link