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(AOF) – Netflix dropped 10.48% to 358.21 dollars, guilty of making investors believe that "trees can climb to the sky". After outperforming the consensus for four consecutive quarters, bringing the stock to a record high of $ 423.21 on June 21, the streaming site pays cash for underperforming results in the second quarter of 2018. Certainly the performances Financials are mixed: Netflix earnings per share reached 85 cents and revenues $ 3.9 billion.
The consensus was 79 cents per share and $ 3.94 billion.
But beyond that, it's once again the evolution of the subscriber base of the site that is the justice of the peace and the main cause of the tumble of the action. In the second quarter, Netflix recruited 5.2 million new subscribers, while setting a target of 6.2 million. In the United States, Netflix hoped to recruit 1.2 million new subscribers and attracted "only" 700 000. Internationally, 4.47 million people joined the group against 5.9 million. [19659002IfthesurpriseeffectisobviouslyunpleasantasNetfliximpressedwithitsperformancebadystsdonotalarmtoomuchtheseresultsalittleworsethanusual"TheresultsofthesecondquartershowthatNetflixwillnotbuilditssubscriberbaseinalinearwayTheunderlyingtrendsremainfavorabletoitsactivitybutcanbepenalizedoronthecontraryreinforcedbytheseasonalityorthequalityofnewcontent"summarizesJPMorganThelattermaintainsitsoverweightrecommendationonNetflixandhasraiseditstargetpriceto$415
India, future growth relay for Netflix?
Morgan Stanley is on the same line. The badyst relativises the failure of the second quarter, recalling that the million subscribers that Netflix has not recruited ever represents only 1% of its total base of 130 million users. In addition, it highlights the difficulty of predicting the evolution of recruitment in the short term.
The general idea that stands out from these badyzes is that the series released in the second quarter had less impact than in previous quarters perhaps because they were often suites and not new, original programs. Credit Suisse adds that the World Cup was held at the end of the period, obviously attracting television viewers. But, for him as for the other consulting firms, this is only a postponement.
In his note published before the publication of the results, the badyst wrote not to have seen "the impact of the World of Serial Downloads Next, among the top five markets in Europe and Latin America, we estimate download growth at 14% compared to comparable periods, and finally, perhaps most importantly, downloads. have almost tripled in India by the end of the second quarter, probably supported by the new original series destined for this market "Sacred Games".
For the third quarter, Netflix aims a net profit of 68 cents per share, a turnover of 3.98 billion and recruitments of 5 million subscribers. The Zacks consensus is over $ 4 billion in revenue and 71 cents per share. In addition, Netflix indicated that unfavorable currency effects would send its 2018 operating margin at the bottom of its 10/11% forecast range.
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