[ad_1]
Beijing – Faced with a perilous trade conflict with the United States, the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakness, Beijing now recognizing "the impact" of its standoff with Washington.
Growth, investment, industrial production: a slowdown in activity occurred on Monday in the figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics (SNB), 10 days after the outbreak of commercial hostilities with Donald America Trump.
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed slightly in the second quarter, standing at 6.7% year-on-year, compared to 6.8% in the previous quarter.
This figure is in line with badysts' predictions and remains above the Chinese government's growth target of 6.5% for the year as a whole.
But even if there is no danger in this, a change of tone is noticeable in the official comments in Beijing, which had until now tended to pretend that the trade war would be more harmful for the country. America only for China.
" Protectionism continues to flourish on the surface of the globe, constituting a major challenge for the global economic recovery and adding to the challenges and uncertainties as far as we are concerned ", acknowledged before the press spokesman BNS Mao Shengyong.
The customs dispute " will have an impact on the economies of China and the United States (…) and many other countries will be affected ," he warned.
For now, badysts believe that the rivalry between the two world's largest economies has not yet made its impact, as the two countries began to impose punitive tariffs on each other only on 6 July on $ 34 billion in annual imports.
But the United States fired a new salvo last week by drawing up an additional list of Chinese products imported, worth $ 200 billion a year, which they threaten to tax up to 10% as soon as possible. September.
The next day, Beijing warned that it would take " retaliatory measures necessary " if Washington put its threat into effect.
– " Falling in speed " –
The latest trade figures have certainly revealed a new record surplus of Chinese exports to the United States in June.
But these exports were supported by the desire of the exporters to sell as much as possible in the United States before the entry into force of the new customs duties. And they may further sharpen Donald Trump's vengeance on Beijing.
The United States absorbs 20% of Chinese exports and the sanctions taken by the US president could cost between 0.2 and 0.5 points of growth to China, according to economists.
This is rather badly when the government is trying to shut down the most polluting factories and fight against over-indebtedness, policies that could have a negative impact on growth.
In response, Beijing may therefore be determined to support more activity through a more accommodating monetary and fiscal policy.
" China's economy appears to be slowing down, the government seems to be slowly easing its policy (…) despite its goal of reducing financial risk ," says Alaistair Chan Moody's agency.
" The Bureau of Statistics begins to publicly acknowledge that the economy is losing steam ," says Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics. " This should allow the authorities to justify a return to support for the activity ".
Another sign of weakness, industrial production fell in June, growing by only 6% over one year, against 6.8% the previous month. An even weaker result than the economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency (6.5%) expected.
Investment in fixed badets continued to plummet, with growth of only 6% over one year in the first six months of the year. They had already fallen to their lowest level since 1999, with a rise of only 6.1%
The only consolation factor for Beijing, household consumption accelerated last month, with retail sales falling behind up 9% year-on-year, up from 8.5% in May, slightly better than badysts' predictions.
Source link
