European growth will slow, according to Brussels

The European Commission had forecast 2.3% growth for this year, both in the euro area and for the European Union as a whole. Finally, this growth should reach 2.1% for 2018, and 2% in 2019. A downward revision due to the trade war driven by Donald Trump, and diplomatic tensions with the United States. "Growth in Europe should remain resilient, as monetary policies remain accommodative and unemployment continues to fall," said Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs.

"The slight downward revision from the spring reflects the impact of trade tensions and political uncertainty on confidence and rising energy prices," he confirms. The European Commission's new forecasts still bet on continued economic expansion in 2018 and 2019. Nevertheless, "there is clearly a downside risk in case of further escalation of protectionist measures". Growth will be uneven across countries. Germany, which was expected to grow at 2.3% and 2.1% growth in 2018 and 2019, should finally settle for 1.9% for these two years.

For France, the Commission expects GDP growth of 1.7% for this year and next year. Brussels joins the estimates, also downgraded, of the Banque de France and INSEE. The government is banking on a 2% badumption for 2018. The European Commission recalls that GDP growth in the first quarter slowed to 0.2% after five quarters of strong growth.