Old real estate remains at the highest, but fears scarcity

Paris – A stabilization at the highest level: this is the balance sheet of the first half of 2018 in France for the old real estate market, which comes out of two unprecedented years but of which several actors fear the consequences of a supply dwindling.
  

" We are on an extremely high rate of transactions, but that stopped growing ", summarized Monday at a press conference Laurent Vimont, president of the French antenna of Century 21 which has 850 branches.

Since the beginning of the year, Century 21 saw the number of sales stagnate (+ 0.3%) in France compared to the same period of 2017, according to figures given on this occasion.

Other agencies had already published a balance sheet in June for an equivalent period. At Orpi, sales fell by 1.7%, while at Guy Hoquet – which belongs to Nexity real estate giant Century 21 France – they went up by 4.2%, in both cases year.

This last progression is a " surprise " since the market did not seem to have any more margin, recognized in June Fabrice Abraham, general director of Guy Hoquet, during a press conference.

The past two years have been unprecedented for the French market. After having already broken a record in 2016, sales were even stronger last year, surpbading almost one million.

For Century 21, the shape of the market has an obvious explanation: banking conditions are always exceptional for buyers who can borrow for years at extremely low rates.

– Act of Housing Without Effect –

Remains that his counterparts see an increasingly tense situation, the supply of old housing may no longer meet an inflamed demand.

" I've been doing real estate for 30 years ," warns Abraham. " I have never seen such an imbalance between supply and demand. "

Guy Hoquet, who owns 500 agencies in the country, notes a sharp decline in sales mandates, which give an indication of future operations, and expects a second semester " less strong than the first ", in the words of Mr. Abraham.

In some areas, the situation is so tense that it pushes " customers to rush on offers ", adds in a statement Christine Fumagalli, president of Orpi, which has 1,200 agencies.

" Sometimes they come back to their decision after reflection, the property is not that of their dream or the price level exceeding a psychological threshold ," she warns.

Sales prices per square meter continue to rise even if they are moderating. At Orpi, they grew by 1%, while they rose by 1.2% at Guy Hoquet and 2.3% at Century 21.

" I was expecting a stronger increase, it was chosen ", nuance Mr. Vimont, evoking a" glbad ceiling "prices while being more optimistic than his colleagues on a maintenance of the activity at the current levels of here the end of the year.

The agencies make divergent diagnoses between Paris and the rest of France: Century 21 focuses on price increases per square meter in almost all regions in the face of a slowdown in Paris.

On the other hand, " prices do not increase any more in province " and still leap to Paris with Guy Hoquet, notes Mr. Abraham, underlining a " terrible regional disparity ", with" really two markets ".

In any case, the two networks agree on one element: the government's vast bill on housing, which will pbad to the Senate after its adoption by the deputies, does not have the same effect. time hardly of consequence on the market of the old.

" The French look at it from a distance … For those who watch ," says Abraham.