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With the threat of trade war, the growth of world trade has been revised by the IMF
While maintaining its global growth forecast at 3.9% over 2018 and 2019, the IMF warns about increased risks related to commercial war threats. And revises its world trade outlook at + 4.8% vs. + 5.1% last April. "The risk that the current trade tensions will intensify further – with a negative impact on confidence, markets and investment – represents in the short term the greatest threat to global growth", summed up economist Maurice Obstfeld. chief of the IMF. By specifying that if they materialize, it could lower projections by 0.5 point by 2020.
For now, the institute of Washington does not change its panorama for the United States and China , the first two economies of the world, the US economy benefiting from the broad tax reform adopted end of 2017. The figures for 2018 are however lowered for the euro area. France and Germany lost 0.3 percentage points compared to April, with GDP growth of 1.8% and 2.2% respectively. Note a divergence for 2019 with a further downward adjustment for the Hexagon (from 2% to 1.7%) and a small plus for the German economy (2.1% instead of 2%). The IMF highlights the slowing of activity in the first quarter after a particularly dynamic 2017 and points to an unfavorable factor related to the rise in oil prices.
The fund also shows less optimism for Japan, which recorded sluggish consumption and investment in the first quarter. Ditto for Great Britain, consequence of the uncertainties on the Brexit. In the emerging world, Brazil, penalized by strikes and political uncertainty, suffered a sharp correction of 0.5 points for growth estimated at 1.8%. A.C.
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