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The order of Sacramento Superior Court Judge James P. Arguelles last week gives supporters of the recall – which include some major GOP donors, activists and elected officials – a 120-day extension until March 17 for collect signatures as he agreed they were unfairly limited by the Covid-19 pandemic.
But veterans on the front lines of the last – and only – successful California governor recall that Newsom’s opponents, including the struggling Republican Party, will need an intoxicating infusion of money and an army of voters. energetic to get to the finish line.
The bar is extremely high. Organizers are expected to collect nearly 1.5 million valid signatures – meaning it would actually take more than 2 million to feel confident due to the generally high share of invalid signatories on any petition. And they should find all of those supporters during a pandemic, when voters are less accessible in person and uncomfortable interacting with signature groups. It could take several million dollars to qualify a recall, much more than 17 years ago.
There is little evidence, say Democratic political strategists, to suggest that the force and the money are there to make this happen.
Garry South, who was Davis’ senior adviser and Newsom adviser, warns that “circumstances are now quite different from those of the 2003 recall”, when only one wealthy Republican – Republican Darrell Issa – contributed 1.7 million of dollars. of his own fortune to secure the ouster of politically vulnerable Davis, presumably to run the governor himself.
Issa’s money sparked recall campaign, but allowed charismatic action film hero Schwarzenegger to take over the cause – declaring his candidacy for “The Tonight Show” and winning the governorship in less 90 days. These bizarre circumstances seem very unlikely to happen again this year, he said.
It also happened at a much different time before President Donald Trump undermined the party’s position in California, the population was less diverse and Republicans still had a legitimate shot at every gubernatorial election. As the 2003 recall approached, 44 percent of the electorate were registered Democrats compared to 35 percent Republicans. Today that split is 46% Democrats, 24% Republicans – and 24% without party allegiance.
No Republican has held office statewide since Schwarzenegger left in early 2011. Newsom has been seen as a safe bet for re-election like any governor before him. But others warn that lightning could strike twice.
“I wouldn’t risk laughing,” said Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, who served as communications director for Schwarzenegger during the 2003 recall and later when he took office.
In the age of pandemic politics, Newsom has been seen as “declaring war on certain industries, and with general frustration with the business world – and they might feel quite emboldened,” Stutzman said.
The recall strategy is still long, but if the economy does not rebound and the image of Covid-19 does not lift their eyes, voters angry at political hypocrisy – frustrated and strapped for finances – may be ripe to convince that it’s Newsom’s time to go, Stutzman says.
“They might say, ‘Remember? Yeah, I’m going to sign that.'”
California established the recall in 1911 as one of a series of populist reforms, with state initiative and referendum powers.
The basis for the 2003 recall was pent-up anger across the state after California failed to keep the lights on during the energy crisis and increased vehicle taxes in the Car Madness state. Although Davis survived his 2002 re-election against a conservative Republican, voters were still frustrated with their leader.
Supporters are spying on a similar populist opening in 2020, especially after the governor’s foray into French laundry with key lobbyists and sending his children to private school. The multimillionaire businessman and wine entrepreneur lives in a $ 4 million gated mansion overlooking the American River, according to public records.
Newsom apologized last week for attending the dinner, but the story persisted after Fox LA obtained photos suggesting the Nov. 6 event was not exactly outside – contrary to its description – and showed the governor having dinner with two senior officials with the powerful doctors. lobby.
Activists for the recall say Newsom’s coronavirus restrictions on churches, gyms, restaurants and other businesses have fueled the state’s unemployment rate by nearly 10%. Most of California’s 6 million public schoolchildren are staying home in part because Newsom has left it up to local school districts and unions to determine when to reopen.
Already, the same radio show hosts who helped fuel the 2003 recall are lighting their anti-governor torch again, swinging incessantly against Newsom. John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou, the “John and Ken” afternoon duo on KFI radio in Los Angeles, criticized the governor as an “aristocrat” who made locals suffer during the pandemic.
“Gavin Newsom is the best seller – getting more people to sign this recall than we could ever do on our own,” said Orrin Heatlie of Folsom, the main organizer of RecallGavin2020.com, with 75 volunteer groups in statewide and 250,000 subscribers on social networks.
Heatlie, a recall organizer, retired after serving 25 years as a sergeant in the Yolo County Sheriff’s Office – where he was a senior negotiator in crisis response and hostage negotiations. Over the past few months, he has expressed views on social media that have been criticized as extreme. In April, Heatlie posted on Facebook: “The same people who call me a science, a climate denier claim there are multiple sexes, and they want me to get vaccinated. I am so NOT! In another article, he suggested that it might be a good idea to ‘microchip’ undocumented immigrants.
Democrats have so far ignored recall efforts. But if they start taking the petitions seriously, it won’t be long before they point out that the effort is being led by Trump-aligned conservatives, whose views are unpopular statewide.
Dan Newman, a political adviser to Newsom, said it “will be interesting to see if any ambitious Republican politicians really want to link up with extremists who hold such odious views against California.”
Heatlie said his group has already collected nearly 700,000 signatures and is now confident of reaching the required 1.5 million thanks to Newsom’s “latest escapades”. Collecting signatures, in person and online, he said, was made easier when voters were reminded that the governor “closed Thanksgiving and travel plans … and told everyone to limit with who they are in contact with, and at the same time he goes to the French laundry. “
If supporters of the recall have a chance, it’ll be that they somehow grab the attention of a big donor who decides to cut the flow of a seven-figure check. Newsom’s missteps were covered daily on Fox News, potentially expanding the pool of contributors.
While the energy comes from the Tories to circulate recall petitions, it would be a long way for a Republican to win the governor’s office, let alone one who is not a moderate. Del Beccaro acknowledges that Schwarzenegger “could never have been elected in a general election” as a challenger, but noted that a recall during a pandemic could upset conventional political rules.
If there are multiple candidates – in 2003, there were 135 – “that represents the best chance for a Republican – a Republican concerned with finding solutions – to run for governor,” he said.
San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer – a moderate, business-friendly Republican who touted his city’s effective efforts to tackle homelessness, is often mentioned as the GOP’s top marksman in the state’s first place . Faulconer told POLITICO on Thursday that he was “seriously considering” a candidate for governor in the future and had criticized Newsom last week for being out of touch.
Already, Del Beccaro’s group, backed by the California Revival PAC he founded, has found common cause with other recall organizations. Heatle’s California Patriot Coalition filed a 23-page lawsuit in Sacramento Superior Court last month, arguing that challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic required an extension of normal timelines for collecting signatures – a decision that will now benefit both.
Heatle’s group funded their efforts partly through crowdfunding, but also with a check from former GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who invested $ 100,000 – and is exploring another race for governor’s seat in 2022.
Other major donors include Northridge business owners Howard and Susan Groff, who donated $ 30,000, and Del Becarro’s California Revival PAC, who invested $ 60,000. With the judge’s order this week, Del Beccaro now says he expects to raise $ 3 million for his efforts, and has promising pledges from major GOP donors, whom he declined to name. ; Heatle says he will raise $ 1.5 million to reach that goal.
Still, South argues that Republicans are dreaming if they think they can replicate the success of the unforgettable 2003 California recall. Among them: the distinct differences between avuncular Davis and Newsom, who is considered a rising party star and a probable future presidential candidate.
Davis was re-elected in 2002 by a 5 percentage point margin over Republican Bill Simon, while Newsom was elected in a 62% -38% landslide in 2018.
Before his optics woes, Newsom’s approval rate last month was 58% stratospheric, while 61% approved of his handling of the Covid-19 crisis, according to the latest PPIC poll.
By comparison, Davis’ approval ratings were in the 1930s, South said.
Biggest problem: California Republicans don’t even have a number close to competing with Schwarzenegger for excitement and name recognition, South observed. He dismissed Faulconer as a canidate who “looks like a guy who trains birds … and most Californians have never heard of.”
But supporters say polls have been wrong in the past – see: 2020 Presidential Election – and politicians in Sacramento can’t begin to measure the full weight of Covid’s pain – which they insist may fuel another revolution in 2020.
“I give these people a lot of leeway, they don’t live like me,” said Hedstrom, who lost her home in the 2017 fires in the wine country. “I am a displaced person, I live in a double trailer… But people are trying to survive here, businesses are closed, people are suffering in this condition. “
“We have to clean the house,” she said, “and it starts with the governor.”
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