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The widening of the diplomatic row over the canceled submarine deal between Australia and France has highlighted a key strategic shift in the West, with the United States and its allies ready to snub a key European partner to counter China’s aggression in the Pacific Ocean.
French authorities have been in turmoil since Australia scrapped the $ 66 billion contract for 12 conventional submarines in favor of a nuclear submarine pact with the United States and Britain. Australian officials, who had expressed concerns about budget overruns and delays in the French deal, said nuclear submarines were a technological necessity to defend the country’s interests.
Australia’s decision to partner with the US and UK on France also signaled that its strategic vision towards China has changed “very dramatically” since the contract was awarded in 2016, according to Ivo Daalder, who was US Ambassador to NATO from 2009 to 2013. Relations with China have deteriorated due to Beijing’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, actions in the China Sea southern and efforts to control trade in the Pacific.
“Frankly, [Australia] also wanted to bind the United States in the Pacific and that’s another way to do it, ”Daalder told Fox News. “The strategic rationale for going with the UK and the US was much more important than going with the French.
“Conventional submarines just weren’t going to do the job,” he added.
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Australia will receive at least eight nuclear-powered submarines as part of the deal by 2040. In addition to infuriating France, which will lose billions in expected revenue and $ 1.7 billion in sunk costs , the deal angered China, which tore the United States and Britain apart for a very sensitive split. nuclear technology.
Nuclear-powered submarines have several operational advantages over the submarines that Australia would have received under the original deal with the French. U.S.-made vessels can last for decades without the need to refuel, have greater range, and are more difficult to detect than their conventional counterparts. The French-made ships were a nuclear submarine design converted to operate as diesel-electric hybrids.
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“The delays, that could probably be fixed,” said Garret Martin, co-director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at American University. “But China’s behavior and the economic coercion against Australia and others, I think, has created a real sense of urgency and real domestic pressure. (Australia has) a lot of sea coasts to defend, and the Pacific Ocean is huge, so range has made a big difference to them.
While the agreement between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom was negotiated in secret, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said France was aware that his government had “serious and serious concerns” that conventional submarines would not meet its defense needs.
French authorities rejected Australia’s request, arguing that the country’s government had given no public indication that they had doubts about the submarine’s contract.
“The United States has more weight in the region and everywhere than France. From a purely strategic point of view, this is understandable,” said Ben Haddad, director of the European Center of the Atlantic Council. “I think what was really frustrating for Paris was that the Australians didn’t voice their doubts and certainly didn’t openly say that they were about to turn to another partner.”
Public statements suggested the deal was stable as recently as August 30, when French and Australian defense and foreign officials issued joint remarks referring to “the importance of the Future Submarine program” and plans to “strengthen cooperation in military scientific research”.
In this photo provided by the US Navy, the Los Angeles-class fast attack submarine USS Oklahoma City (SSN 723) returns to Naval Base Guam on August 19, 2021 (Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Naomi Johnson / US Navy via AP)
“There is a crisis of confidence beyond the fact that the contract is broken, as if Europe itself had no interest in defending in this region,” French Foreign Minister Jean- said on Monday. Yves Le Drian at the United Nations.
Senior Australian officials argued that the change of mind was necessary to protect the country’s “increasingly narrow” technological lead in the Indo-Pacific region, where China’s naval capabilities include nuclear submarines .
Last week, Morrison said the country was “unable” to prosecute nuclear submarines when he signed the original deal in 2016.
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“It wasn’t on the table for various reasons,” Morrison said. “So the decision we made not to continue with the Attack-class submarine and go that route is not a change of mind, it’s a change of need.”
President Biden has requested a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron in the coming days to resolve the dispute, a senior Biden administration has said. Any lingering tension could undermine Biden’s promise to cooperate closely with his European allies following a tumultuous relationship under former President Trump.
“My feeling from the Biden administration is that this says a lot about the importance of countering China, even if it means ruffling the feathers of a major ally in Europe,” Martin added.
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