GameStop wins are coming. No one knows what to expect.

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After two months of illegal trade,

GameStop

will report its January quarter results on Tuesday. What this means for the stock is a guess.

In a note Thursday, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote that GameStop is “well positioned to be a major beneficiary of the new console launches.” But he believes the stock is trading at levels disconnected from fundamentals. Although Pachter rates the stock at Neutral, he has a price target of $ 16. GameStop stock was down 0.7% to $ 200.27 on Friday.

By now, many Americans know why. The GameStop stock has been widely criticized by Wall Street analysts, with the stock dropping around the price of a Happy Meal a year ago. It sparked obscene short interest, which meant hedge funds were lining up to bet on lower prices. But when short sellers get ahead of themselves, positive news can cause stocks to soar as they rush to buy stocks to close their bets in the face of an unlimited drop.

In the second half of last year, Chewy co-founder Ryan Cohen stepped into the mix. He revealed an issue and subsequently called for major changes. He increased his stake in December and joined the board in January with two partners.

Taking into account the short-lived interest in the action and the possibility that GameStop may find a second life as a gaming-focused e-commerce player, retail traders on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum have piled into the crowd. ‘GameStop action. Technical quirks in options activity, the aforementioned short-term interest, and new enthusiasm made GameStop shares soar in January.

WallStreetBets grabbed national headlines and bearish hedge funds were torched. It also started a debate about short selling, as well as a debate about retail traders’ access to financial markets after Robinhood and other brokers temporarily restricted the buying of stocks due to financial demands of their clearing houses.

GameStop stock fell about $ 40, but jumped again last month. Although GameStop announced it was looking for a new CFO, promising e-commerce-focused hires, and a board committee chaired by Cohen to guide its transformation into a tech company, it did not provide an update on sales or prospects since. its exit from holiday sales on January 11, which signaled a disappointing December.

For the full fiscal fourth quarter, Wedbush analyst Pachter forecasts sales of $ 2.3 billion, same-store sales up 4.8% year-over-year and adjusted profit of 1 , $ 38 per share. He notes that GameStop’s Holiday Sales report showed comparable store sales were down year-over-year in December and lagged behind positive NPD data nationwide. industry. He notes that the company has lost market share in recent periods to the benefit of its competitors amid a shift to Internet spending.

BofA Global Research analyst Curtis Nagle wrote in a Friday note that he expects a disappointing, albeit profitable, quarter. He wrote that while recent announcements related to Cohen and the new hires are positive, in theory there have been no real details on the costs, timing, and earnings impacts of a turnaround plan. . He has a price target of $ 10 with an underperformance rating, noting that the current valuation and historical multiple of the stock would imply earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $ 3.5 billion, approximately. four times its maximum EBITDA of 2015.

Nagle’s memo included an analysis of the impact of the $ 1,400 direct payouts on the stock, with the idea that retail investors will use their last windfall on GameStop stock. His conclusion is that “stimmies,” as he calls them, will not impact GameStop action in the future.

Of course, what analysts have said about the GameStop stock hasn’t had much of an impact on its recent moves. A positive update to the recovery plan could offset remaining short-term declines. On the other hand, any comment on possible stock sales could be negative. Pachter expected short sellers to drop their bets as the stock returned to more fundamental levels. This did not happen, he noted.

“Activists control the company’s board of directors and lead activist Ryan Cohen, founder of Chewy, intends to unveil a new strategy in the near future,” Pachter added. “When the new strategy is revealed and we are able to assess it, we will re-examine our estimates and our PT.”

Write to Connor Smith at [email protected]